CQ TODAY MIDDAY UPDATE
– POLITICS
Nov. 19, 2008 – 6:19 a.m.
Political Trivia for Nov. 19
By Bob Benenson
Come January, Democrats will hold at least half the House seats in how many of the 28 states carried by Barack Obama ?
a) 15
b) 17
c) 23
d) 26
Answer: d) Of the 28 states confirmed as carried by Barack Obama in the presidential contest, Democrats will have at least half the seats in 26 — as long as Virginia Democratic challenger Tom Perriello’s lead over 5th District Republican Rep. Virgil H. Goode Jr. holds up in an undecided race that would give the Democrats a 6-5 edge in that state’s delegation.
Democrats will have clear majorities in 24 other states and have already clinched nine of Ohio’s 18 seats to break even in that state’s delegation. They could gain a majority if Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy were to pull out a victory over Republican Steve Stivers in the undecided 15th District race, though Stivers leads in the most recent count.
The only states carried by Obama that are certain to have Republican House majorities are Florida, where the Republicans will maintain a 15-10 edge despite losing two seats to the Democrats in the Nov. 4 elections, and Delaware, where veteran moderate Republican Rep. Michael N. Castle was re-elected to the state’s only House seat.
The final outcome of the presidential vote has not been called in one state, Missouri, though Republican John McCain holds a very narrow lead that appears likely to stand up. Republicans will maintain their 5-4 advantage in Missouri’s House delegation in the upcoming 111th Congress.
Comments
Unless I am overlooking something, FL Rs suffered a NET loss of only 1 seat (not "two seats"), as their defeats in CD-08 and -24 (both in Orlando area) are partially offset by the takeback of CD-16.
Good trivia with a deeper meaning! But it goes deeper than that: Democrats now control both houses of the legislatures in 22 of the 28 Obama states and one house in 5 more. They are shut out only in Florida where they also do not control the HR delegation. Leaving Florida aside,the Democrats now control 25 of the 27 other Obama HR delegations with one tie in Ohio; they also control 49 of the 54 state legislature houses in these 27 states. Hence the democrats control 74 of the 81 combined state legislature houses and House of Representatives delegations in these 27 Obama states with one tie in the Ohio state senate and the republicans control the mighty total of 6. Digging in for the long haul?
Here's a further followup: in the 21 states won by either Gore or Kerry and by Obama, the Democrats control all HR delegations except Delaware as you noted above and all state legislature houses except the PA and MI state senates for control of 60 out of 63 combined state legislature houses and HR delegations.
The Dems also won 13 of the 15 Senate races tn the 28 Obama states, losing only Maine and with Minnesota still open. The Repubs won 13 of the 20 Senate races in the 22 Mc Catn states, lost 6, WV, AK, SD, AR, LA, and MT, and with MN still ungecided. When you look at the Senate election map and you see where the Repubs are winning and what states were up this time, the magnitude of our victory becomes even bigger. The reverse realignment couldn't be clearer. Let them have two seats each in Wyoming and Mississippi, I'm reminded of something Henry Morgan said one night years ago on the Tonight Show when Johnny asked him what he was going to do with his old 48-star flag now that Alaska and Hawaii had joined the union. Morgan replied that he was just going to keep on flying it because he never counted Alabama and Mississippi anyway.
The Dems also won 23 new HR seats this cycle in the 28 Obama states while losing only the forlorn Mahoney in FL who looked like even he might have pulled through if only he had a bit of self control. Meanwhile the Repubs were running up an impressive total of three victories in HR contests in the 22 McCain states (taking back Lampson's seat in TX, Boyda's in KS (Where is that Good Witch of the North Glenda when you need her, Dorothy?), and Cazayoux's in LA) while losing five others, one race each in AZ, ID, AL, MS, and LA (Cazayouix's initial victory). It seems as though the Blue States just keep getting bluer while many of the rd States turn a sickly kind of burnt umber.
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