CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 1, 2008 – 11:23 p.m.
Stunning GOP Setbacks Make Dems More Likely to Take Staten Island, Too
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
With the defending Republicans facing twists and turns confirming that truth can be stranger than fiction, the Democrats now appear to hold a solid edge in the battle for the seat New York Republican Rep. Vito J. Fossella left open — after the married father of three admitted in May that he has a daughter from an ongoing extramarital relationship.
The Republicans’ lack of a consensus replacement candidate less than two weeks before the July 10 candidate filing deadline, with no top-tier prospects at hand for the party’s Sept. 9 primary, has prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race in New York’s 13th Congressional District to Democrat Favored from No Clear Favorite.
This big rating jump means there is still enough of a Republican base in New York City’s sole GOP-held House district to enable the party to bounce back if it can find a new candidate to rally around — but that the Democrats now look increasingly likely to take a seat that looked like a long shot when the campaign year began.
Already reeling from the political demise of one-time rising star Fossella, the GOP effort fell into chaos when Frank Powers — the former Wall Street executive who party officials had tapped to run in Fossella’s stead — died suddenly of a heart attack on June 22. Republican officials from the New York City boroughs of Staten Island, which makes up three-quarters of the district’s population, and Brooklyn, which makes up the rest, have thus far failed to agree on their next fill-in candidate.
Kings County Republican Party Chairman Ed Eaton, who oversees party efforts in Brooklyn, has thrown his support behind retired investment banker Paul Atanasio and has called, without success so far, for concurrence from his counterparts in Richmond County, a.k.a. Staten Island.
Like the late Powers, Atanasio has little background in elective politics. But Eaton argues he has the key attributes necessary to win the race: the personal wealth to self-fund his campaign and a pedigree that Eaton says will entice the national Republican Party to put money into the race.
With a series of well-known prospects from Staten Island already having taken themselves out of contention, Eaton said there are no possible candidates from that larger part of the district who have attributes as strong as those brought in by Atanasio.
“We’re basically reaching out to the Staten Island GOP and saying you guys really need to come on board. You need to come on board with us so we can ensure victory,” Eaton told CQ Politics.
He added this ominous note: “Time is running out. Unless the Staten Island GOP gets behind Paul Atanasio immediately, we have no shot of keeping this seat.”
Yet Atanasio faces several difficulties in running for the seat. He would need to file 1,250 signatures with a petition for candidacy by July 10 to qualify for the Republican primary ballot. As a Brooklyn resident, he would have to overcome Staten Islanders’ longstanding preference for one of their own. This could be a particular problem as the Democratic Party establishment is rallying around a well-known Staten Island candidate, City Councilman Mike McMahon — though Eaton said Atanasio has promised to move to Staten Island if he wins the seat.
He also has to sell himself to Republican officials and voters even though he is a registered member of the New York Conservative Party, not the Republican Party. The Conservative Party tends to co-endorse Republican Party candidates, but is a separate entity.
Brooklyn political consultant Gerry O’Brien, who works with clients from both major parties, said Republicans’ recruiting problems all but assured Democrats would win the 13th District in November.
“It’s flabbergasting. That’s the only word I can think of. It is as if they seem intent on serving this seat up to Democrats on a silver platter with chocolate mints around the edge,” O’Brien said.
Stunning GOP Setbacks Make Dems More Likely to Take Staten Island, Too
Democrats had put the 13th District on their prospective target list after the 2006 election, when underfunded candidate Stephen Harrison held Fossella to 57 percent, the lowest vote share of his congressional career. They wasted no time in ramping up their takeover effort after Fossella, then still a heavy favorite to win re-election, saw his House career disintegrated by scandal.
The national party quickly coalesced behind McMahon, even though Harrison, a lawyer, has entered the September Democratic primary and argues he earned the shot by taking on the reputedly unbeatable Fossella last time. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced it has reserved $2.1 million in New York City television time for the race and has added McMahon to its “Red to Blue” programs for candidates running competitive bids for Republican-held seats.
In another contrast with the Republicans’ dilemma, the Democratic committees in both Staten Island and Brooklyn joined to support McMahon.
Eaton said the Republicans’ problems in the 13th District reflected larger national trends. “Make no mistake about it — we’re in trouble. The Republican Party is in trouble nationally, at the state level and at the local county levels,” he said.
But he said Republicans, with their emphasis on national security, can and must hold the seat in a district in which many residents witnessed the destruction of Manhattan’s World Trade Center by terrorists on Sept. 11, 2001.
“We’re now talking about the safety and security of the people of the city of New York. And unless we have a strong advocate in the Republican Party ... in Congress working hard to ensure for the safety and security of New York City residents, we are going to lose,” Eaton asserted. “And if that happens, shame on all of us.”
Eaton said he had not spoken with John Friscia, chairman of the Staten Island Republican Party, since Powers’ death. Friscia did not return CQ Politics’ call for comment.
Eaton added he was “hopeful” that the leaders from the Staten Island and Brooklyn Republican parties would convene in the next several days to decide on a candidate, but that no such meeting had been scheduled despite his request for one.
Comments
Don't be so sure on that. This is a very republican seat. Once the smoke settles The person who has the GOP line will "WIN" McCain is going to beat Obama by better than three to one in this district. VJ Machiavelli http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com ps This election is all about shoes, yes shoes do we keep them on or do we take them off and never put them on again when we fly sounds silly but think about it.
Yes 9/11, terror, security FEAR!! Is this it? What about my fear of the gas station? I'm also afraid of the unemployment office, any help there? Republicans have no plans except to run on old themes of scare tactics. Won't work this time, you still have not addressed my fears.
And who will that be, sir? Seriously, they have two weeks to pull together signatures for *somebody* - not a hard thing in New York City, one would think, but Mr. Eaton in the article is literally throwing out a name at the moment on behalf of two boroughs' Republican parties when he is only in charge of one. Meanwhile, the Democrats are raising funds and have a $2,100,000 reservation for television advertising sitting there courtesy of the DCCC. It doesn't matter how McCain does if they can't even field a candidate in time, let alone get their fundraising in order (as they would be starting at $0 in July). For your assumption to be correct, someone would need to get ahold of John Friscia within the next three weeks. That he is unavailable with a clock ticking is a good indication of the disarray your statement above completely ignores.
Machiavelli, you may want to get consider a grammar tutorial before posting again. Other than that, I find it highly difficult to believe McCain would perform so well on SI considering Bush himself beat Kerry by only 10 points. Staten may be a general embarrassment to NYC, but it is not the hellhole of Republicanism you suggest.
McMahon is a lock for this seat. He is exactly what we in Staten Island are looking for in a representative. Republicans are a dying breed in New York. They're going to lose the state senate (cya Bruno) and 3 or 4 of their 6 seats in the House. Let this be a lesson for corrupt and incompetent crooks and thugs.
This is just one more step in the day-by-day death spiral of the Republican Party. See http://politicalirony.com/2008/07/01/day-by-day-death-spiral-of-the-republican-party/
You're delirious, VJ. Dems outnumber Reps on Staten Island by an appreciable margin. The past electoral results for the Si GOP were entirely based on Reagan Democrats. Indeed, the current circumstance is just the circle completing its turn. 'Traveling Jack' Murphy lost the seat when he was caught in the Abscam scam. Now, the last, tenuous vestige of Guy Molinari's Republican infrastructure having control has been caught in his own scandal, and the voters will, overwhelmingly, hand the seat to McMahon. Really, who are the SI GOP gonna run? Straniere? Fat chance. Same odds running the guy who had a heart attack had, or any "never heard of him" clown from the other side of the VZ.
This Staen Island district listens to the fevered low-brow, rightwing lying on New York's talk radio, and they love the racist drivel they hear. The NY talk radio will energetically engage on behalf of the GOP and elect another low-brow liar in their mold, such as they had with Fossella, the Vagabond Lover.
Heh. "Jay Diamond." Lemme take your retort apart: "This Staen Island district listens to the fevered low-brow, rightwing lying on New York's talk radio, and they love the racist drivel they hear. " It's not merely a matter of the district, and really, if you are gonna tell me about me, you really oughta learn how to spell before declaiming that you know how Staten Islanders think. "he NY talk radio will energetically engage on behalf of the GOP and elect another low-brow liar in their mold, such as they had with Fossella, the Vagabond Lover." Really, Sir, have you no shame (or a working brain)? The moment Vito's letdown on his reputation hit the bricks, the Republicans lost the seat. If you really are the former talk radio host whose name you claim, then it's no surprise no one will give you microphone time, because you, Sir, are a fool. Per capita, Staten Island is the smartest, richest, and growthiest of the five boroughs. If you really think we are such a block of idiots, what does that say about you? Look around, Jay. WE pick the Mayors. Not you off-Rock idiots. WE decide which way the polls go.
Oh, c'mon VJ. Don't be a troll. Defend yourself. Tell me more about "the shooz."
>> Heh. "Jay Diamond." Lemme take your retort apart: We're waiting. What ? You mean that was it ? That was your big "take apart" ? Yeah i guess you live in the right spot, "Einstein".
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: