By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Democrat Favored

Electoral Votes: 7

Connecticut has joined the rest of New England in providing a solid base for Democrats in presidential elections and there is little reason to believe its seven votes will not go to Barack Obama this year.

At one point Republican optimists saw upset potential for John McCain in Connecticut: McCain’s military background and position as ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee would have some appeal in a state with a number of defense-related employers.

The erstwhile Republican suburbs of New York City kept Connecticut a swing state right through 1988, when the elder George Bush — the Texas transplant whose father was a senator from Connecticut — extended a GOP presidential winning streak to five elections. But the Democrats have since held the upper hand, winning the past four White House contests. George W. Bush , who was born in New Haven, lost Connecticut by a bit more than 10 percentage points in 2004 and by more than 17 points in 2000.

The road to success has not been without potholes for Democrats, who had a tumultuous year in 2006. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman , who had won three terms as a Democrat and was the party’s vice presidential nominee in 2000, was vilified by liberal activists for supporting the Iraq War and lost the 2006 primary to antiwar businessman Ned Lamont. Lieberman, though, won re-election by running a third-party campaign and declared himself an “independent Democrat” when he returned to Washington. That same year, centrist Republican incumbent M. Jodi Rell won the governor’s race.

But even that year, Connecticut Democrats defeated Republican moderates who held two of the state’s House seats, with Christopher S. Murphy ousting Nancy L. Johnson in the state’s northwest and Joe Courtney defeating Rob Simmons in eastern Connecticut. Only a second consecutive narrow escape by veteran Republican Rep. Christopher Shays in the southwestern suburban New York City district prevented a clean Democratic sweep of all five House seats.

Democrats this year again focused their attentions on an effort to elbow out Shays — who is now the only Republican among New England’s 22 House members.

The combination of a new strong candidate in former investment banker Jim Himes and boosted turnout for the presidential election could push Democrats over the top this time, predicts Democratic political consultant Roy Occhiogrosso. Himes entered the race in April 2007 and has nearly matched Shays dollar-for-dollar in fundraising.

Turnout was relatively low in 2006 in the district’s largest city, Bridgeport, but should be higher this year: 30 percent of the city’s residents are black and their presumed enthusiasm for Obama could boost the Democratic ticket down-ballot. CQ Politics rates the Shays/Himes race No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.

Republicans, meanwhile, face difficult challenges in the two districts they lost last time. National Democratic officials are providing assistance to Murphy and Courtney. “These are becoming close-to-safe Democratic seats and [Republicans] don’t want to put the time and energy to go for the upset now,” said John Orman of Fairfield University.

Courtney, nicknamed “Landslide Joe” for his 83-vote margin over Simmons, appears set for an easier victory this time around. His Republican challenger is lawyer Sean Sullivan, a Navy veteran and former commander of the district’s Groton naval base. Sullivan’s lackluster fundraising, which some see as disinterest in the rigors of campaigning, weakens his candidacy. Courtney raised more than five times more money than Sullivan by June 30 and had nearly 10 times more cash on hand.

Murphy faces a more rigorous challenge from Republican state Sen. David Cappiello, who comes equipped with a political base and campaign experience. Yet the $1 million Cappiello raised and $711,000 he had left on hand at midyear still put him at a big disadvantage to Murphy, who raised $2.3 million and had $1.9 million in cash. CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.