By Jesse Stanchak, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican

Electoral Votes: 4

The one-sided advantage Republicans have held in strongly conservative Idaho for many years makes it one of the states most certain to favor GOP presidential nominee John McCain in November’s election. And while the campaign of Democrat Barack Obama has been unusually bold in challenging for some states that are longstanding Republican strongholds, they are being realistic in giving wide berth to Idaho, with its small and, for all practical purposes, unreachable electoral vote prize.

The Illinois senator did get maximum benefit in Idaho during the Democratic nominating campaign from his decision to heavily organize in caucus states — many of them dependably Republican in general elections — while his rival, New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton , did not. Obama drew 80 percent support in Idaho’s Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” Democratic caucuses and also won a May 27 “beauty contest” primary. But that, it seems fair to say, is going to be his only success in the state this year.

McCain, who has a Western connection as a longtime senator from Arizona, appears certain to extend the Republicans’ 10-election presidential winning streak in the state. That statement only scratches the surface of the party’s recent dominance. President Bush took 68 percent of the state’s presidential vote in 2004 after scoring 67 percent in 2000.

There are, however, some Idaho Republicans who are not McCain’s biggest fans. He easily won with 70 percent in the Idaho Republican primary held May 27 — weeks after he had clinched the party’s presidential nomination — but 23 percent of the primary vote went to Texas Rep. Ron Paul and his libertarian-themed campaign. McCain will have to be alert this fall for any signs that usually Republican voters in Idaho are showing interest in former Georgia Rep. Bob Barr, the high-profile presidential nominee of the Libertarian Party.

Still, McCain’s worries are minor compared with those of freshman Rep. Bill Sali , who is the rare prominent Republican official in Idaho whose political standing looks wobbly. Sali faces a vigorous challenge from Democratic businessman Walt Minnick in the state’s western House district.

Sali’s history of testy relations with some state Republicans hindered him in his 2006 open-seat race, which he won by just 5 percentage points. This year, Sali’s fundraising has lagged behind that of most House incumbents, enabling Minnick at mid-year to double Sali’s overall receipts and cash on hand.

Still, Sali, a staunch fiscal and social conservative, benefits from a foundation built by the strong Republican track record in down-ballot races as well as presidential contests. The GOP has a lock on the state’s top offices, with C.L. “Butch” Otter as governor, Michael D. Crapo and the retiring Larry E. Craig in the Senate, and Mike Simpson joining Sali in the state’s two-person House delegation. Idaho’s last congressional Democrat, Rep. Larry LaRocco, was unseated in 1994.

Despite the personal controversies that ensured Craig would not seek a fourth Senate term this year, Republican Lt. Gov. Jim Risch is heavily favored to hold the seat. His opponent is LaRocco in what amounts to a virtual rematch, as the two faced off in the 2006 contest for lieutenant governor that Risch won by a comfortable margin.