By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored

Electoral Votes: 10

It is pretty implausible to envision John McCain not carrying Arizona, where he has won four Senate elections by one-sided margins, taking 76 percent of the vote last time in 2004.

History is surely on McCain’s side. The home state of the late Barry Goldwater, the longtime senator who lost a national landslide as the 1964 GOP presidential nominee, Arizona has voted Republican in 13 of 14 presidential elections since favoring Democrat Harry S Truman in 1948. The only exception was President Bill Clinton, who carried the state by a 2 percentage point margin as he won re-election in 1996.

But as in other states, McCain is viewed skeptically by many hard-core conservatives because of his maverick opposition to party orthodoxy on some issues, including the volatile subject of how to deal with illegal immigration. This was a factor in McCain’s so-so showing in the Feb. 5 “Super Tuesday” presidential primary in Arizona. He won, but with a 47 percent plurality and a less-than-overwhelming margin over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who had 34 percent.

McCain’s Arizona base has been squeezed at the other end of the spectrum as well. The strong level of cross-party support he typically drew from independents and even Democrats dwindled as, in preparing to run for president this year, he courted national conservative interests that opposed his bid against George W. Bush for the Republican presidential nomination in 2000. “McCain has had a love-hate relationship in Arizona for a long time,” state pollster Earl de Berge said. “He’s working hard to ameliorate those things, but I don’t think that the effort so far has suggested he’s going to rise anywhere up to the kinds of numbers you’d expect a ‘favorite son’ to have.”

And McCain’s advantage over Barack Obama in particular is not as overwhelming as one might expect. The huge overall growth of the state’s population, including a surge in Hispanics, who make up more than a quarter of all residents, has eroded the GOP’s once-overwhelming strength.

“If McCain were not running for president, then Obama probably would have a very good chance of carrying Arizona,” said Bruce Merrill, a professor at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication at Arizona State University. He added, “I think the chances of him actually defeating McCain are not great, but not impossible, and my guess is it will be closer than a lot of people think.”

McCain can depend on support in large parts of suburban Phoenix and in the more rural farm-and-ranch lands around the state, but the state’s large constituency of independent voters also is much less inclined to lean Republican. The newer members of this swing-voting group tend to be much younger and more family oriented than their predecessors.

In 2006, the state’s independents were heavily focused on Iraq and Democrats benefited. One reason why Gov. Janet Napolitano won an easy re-election victory and the party captured two House seats is that independents were heavily focused on Iraq. “They were very, very anti-war,” Merrill said of independent voters that year. The Democrats, now tied 4-4 in the state’s congressional delegation, are shooting for their first majority in 40 years.

The party is aiming for another House takeover in the sprawling northeastern district where three-term Republican Rep. Rick Renzi , now facing federal corruption charges, is retiring. Though district voters favored Bush by 9 points in 2004 and Renzi deflected a determined challenge by 8 percentage points in 2006, Democratic strategists view this as a top-priority target. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pledged strong support for former state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, even though she faces a Sept. 2 primary. She raised almost $1 million by June 30; Sydney Hay, who heads the trade association for Arizona’s mining companies, is the best-funded GOP primary hopeful. CQ Politicsrates this race Leans Democratic.

The GOP is trying hard to win back the two House seats, but each appears to be a struggle.

State Senate President Tim Bee is the Republican Party’s strongest congressional challenger, taking on freshman Gabrielle Giffords , who won the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe. Giffords represents the southeastern district that includes part of Tucson. Bee has posted strong fundraising numbers and has name recognition from his role as a state legislative leader. But Giffords has been one of the best fundraisers among freshmen Democrats and has worked hard on constituent outreach. CQ Politics race rating: Leans Democratic.