By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

The good news for Wyoming Republicans this year: The retirement of incumbent Rep. Barbara Cubin actually increases their chances of holding on to their sole House seat.

The bad news: It’s been a tough and expensive fight to decide their party’s nominee.

Voter registration in Wyoming would indicate the race is less-than-competitive for Democrats. The state has twice as many Republicans as Democrats; according to voter registration numbers in August 62 percent of Wyoming voters were registered Republicans and 27 percent registered as Democrats.

But the prospect of an eighth run for the controversial congresswoman gave Democrats a major opening in the race. In 2006 she won by less than one point, 48.3 percent to 47.8 percent, against Democrat Gary Trauner, an Internet entrepreneur and former chairman of the Board of Trustees for the Teton County School District.

Cubin’s departure has set up a tough primary to succeed her. Four Republicans are running to win the party’s nomination on Tuesday, but the top two candidates are businessman and rancher Mark Gordon and former Wyoming Treasurer Cynthia Lummis.

Pre-primary campaign finance reports indicate that Gordon leads the field in terms of fundraising, having raised — and spent — significantly more than any other candidate. Gordon raised $1.3 million and spent 90 percent of his money by July 30, the date covered in the pre-primary report, leaving him with $131,000 in cash by that date. Lummis reported raising $432,000 and had $172,000 on hand by the same date while Trauner raised $1.1 million and had $667,000 on hand.

Winney trailed the three others. He reported raising $128,000 and had $61,000 by July 30. Michael Holland has not filed a campaign finance report with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006 and should do so again this election cycle. But because of the strength of the GOP field and the Republican lean in Wyoming, CQ Politics rates the race Leans Republican.

Amy Larimer, executive director of the Wyoming Republican Party, predicts a large turnout for the primary, especially given the historic nature of the election.

“We’ve had a lot of spirited debate in the state, which is great. Our candidates are separating themselves out from one another at this time and obviously they all hold Republican ideals close to their hearts but their policy differences are starting to come out,” she said.

But an examination of the candidate’s policy stances yields few differences. On energy, both Lummis and Gordon call for improved and increased ways to get Wyoming energy resources, such as shale oil and coal, to the rest of the country. Lummis emphasized balance with environmental concerns while Gordon said he would focus on balancing private property concerns with wildlife viability, economic concerns and the integrity of open space.

Both Lummis and Gordon appeal to the libertarian sentiments of Wyoming Republicans when they say they oppose federal intervention in family issues. Gordon said he would fight to keep government out of people’s affairs and “to foster a climate that allows families of all shapes and sizes to thrive.” Lummis said she opposes same-sex marriage, abortion rights and federal funding for stem-cell research.

On immigration, both oppose what they call amnesty. Lummis calls for Congress to enforce current immigration laws, establish English the official language of the United States, increase the number of guest worker visas. Gordon calls for better enforcement of the border through deployed technology and better coordination between state and federal outfits, and traceable and verifiable visas for temporary workers.