At the Races

MacArthur Narrowly Ahead in New Jersey’s 3rd District, Poll Shows
After easily winning re-election in 2016, two-term incumbent faces close contest

GOP Rep. Tom MacArthur was ahead by 4 points in his campaign’s polling of New Jersey’s 3rd District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New Jersey Rep. Tom MacArthur narrowly led his Democratic opponent in the Republican campaign’s polling of the 3rd District.

MacArthur led Andy Kim 44 to 40 percent in the survey from National Research Inc. Kim was a National Security Council staffer under former President Barack Obama

At the Races: You Only Raised $1 Million?
Our weekly newsletter on the latest in congressional campaigns

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Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé, Bridget Bowman and Stephanie Akin

Fewer White Men Running for Office As Women and Minorities Step Up, Report Finds
Study finds congressional, state legislative races are more diverse in 2018

A marcher at the Woman’s March on Washington holds a sign in Spanish that reads “Woman’s rights = Human rights” on Jan. 21, 2017 one day after Donald Trump’s inauguration. (George LeVines/CQ Roll Call)

The 2018 primary season has seen a drastic decline of white men running for office in congressional and state races, as more women and minorities have joined the fray, according to report released Thursday.

There has been a 13 percent drop in white, male Congressional candidates since 2012, and a 12 percent drop in legislative races, the report from the Reflective Democracy Campaign found. 

At the Races: What Does All the Health Care Talk in Campaign Ads Mean?
Decoding Democratic and Republican messaging over health care topics

With less than a month before the midterms, Democrats and Republicans are blanketing the airwaves with ads about one of the most heated topics in American politics — health care.

Since health care can be confusing on its own, it gets even more confusing when roped into talking points for the two major parties. 

Democratic Activists Could Tip the Scale in Close Races — But Then What?
Grassroots groups have been organizing on the ground for nearly two years

Protesters wave to cars outside of GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney’s office in Utica. (Bridget Bowman/CQ Roll Call)

UTICA, N.Y. — On this particular Friday, the protesters outside of Rep. Claudia Tenney’s office were having trouble holding onto their signs. 

The wind whipped around them as a dozen activists did what they had done every Friday for the last 18 months: stand on the grass between French Road and the small brick office building and hold signs in opposition to the first-term GOP congresswoman.

GOP Poll Puts Morrisey and Manchin Almost Even After Kavanaugh Vote
Manchin led Morrisey by 1 point in a poll conducted for the NRSC and Morrisey campaign

Attorney General Patrick Morrisey trailed Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin by 1 point in an NRSC and Morrisey campaign poll of the race. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A new Republican poll of the West Virginia Senate race shows a tighter race between Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin III and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

Manchin led Morrisey 41 to 40 percent in the survey conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Morrisey’s campaign and obtained first by Roll Call. 

Bost and Kelly Essentially Tied in Democratic Poll of Illinois’ 12th District
Having trailed by 9 in July, Kelly now down 1 in new poll

Democratic polling gave GOP Rep. Mike Bost a 1-point lead over Democrat Brendan Kelly. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New Democratic polling of Illinois’ 12th District gave GOP Rep. Mike Bost a 1-point lead over Democrat Brendan Kelly, an improvement for Kelly since a July survey of the race. 

Bost led Kelly 46 to 45 percent in the survey commissioned by End Citizens United.

Neck-and-Neck Race in Virginia’s 10th District, Comstock Poll Shows
Comstock led Wexton 48 to 47 percent among likely voters

Polling from Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock’s campaign shows a tight race in the 10th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New polling from Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock’s campaign shows a closer race in the 10th District than recent public polling would suggest.

Comstock led Democratic state Sen. Jennifer Wexton 48 to 47 percent in the survey by McLaughlin & Associates. Only 5 percent of voters were undecided.

GOP Super PAC Makes First Expenditure in Minnesota Pickup Opportunity
Congressional Leadership Fund targets DFL nominee Dan Feehan in 1st District

Congressional Leadership Fund is airing its first ad attacking Dan Feehan, the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee in Minnesota's 1st District. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The super PAC tied to House Republican leadership is turning its attention to Minnesota’s 1st District, one of the GOP’s few pickup opportunities this cycle.

Congressional Leadership Fund is going up with its first TV ad on Wednesday, attacking Democratic-Farmer-Labor nominee Dan Feehan, an Iraq veteran and former deputy assistant Defense secretary for readiness.

They May Not Like Him, but New Jersey Voters Aren’t Ditching Menendez, Yet
Republican Bob Hugin is spending big, forcing DSCC to invest in deep-blue state

Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., speaks to the media at the 43rd annual Hispanic State Parade in North Bergen, N.J., on Sunday. (Simone Pathé/CQ Roll Call)

NORTH BERGEN, N.J. — Without mentioning him by name, Sen. Robert Menendez got in a dig at his opponent. 

Kicking off the 43rd annual Hispanic State Parade here Sunday, the New Jersey Democrat said he was happy to be here — “not for the first time, as some people are.”

Republican Poll Shows Rep. Don Bacon Has 9-Point Lead in Nebraska House Race
Democrat Kara Eastman considered best chance of picking up Cornhusker seat

Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb., is defending a House seat Democrats’ have pegged as their best pick-up opportunity in Nebraska. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A poll conducted for Republican Rep. Don Bacon found he leads by 9 points in a House race Democrats have pegged as their best pick-up opportunity in Nebraska. 

Bacon led Democrat Kara Eastman 49 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided, according to a telephone survey of 400 registered voters conducted by Rob Autry and Kayla Dunlap. 

That Minnesota Blue Dog Still Does Hunt
Collin Peterson, the last Democrat who can hold his Trump seat, isn’t giving up

Rep. Collin C. Peterson, D-Minn., right, tours Simply Shrimp, which raises saltwater shrimp, with owner Paul Damhof in Blomkest, Minn., last month. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

BLOMKEST, Minn. — Rep. Collin C. Peterson shed his sport coat to inspect some shrimp. 

It was 86 degrees on a recent Thursday in the calf-barn-turned-tank room, where the son of two dairy farmers is raising saltwater shrimp in the middle of rural Minnesota. 

Could a Blue Wave Drown New York Republicans, Again?
Democrats are targeting all nine GOP-held seats in Empire State this cycle

GOP Rep. John J. Faso talks to a constituent at a senior picnic in Poughquag, NY. (Bridget Bowman/CQ Roll Call)

POUGHQUAG, N.Y. — Rep. John J. Faso describes himself as a “pragmatic conservative” who can work across the aisle to get things done.

“I don’t want to go to Washington just to be part of some chorus appearing on TV, on cable news, talking about ideological divisions,” the New York Republican said in an interview here last month after meeting with seniors.

New Ad Knocks California Republican Diane Harkey on Offshore Drilling
League of Conservation Voters is targeting GOP nominee for Issa seat

Republican Diane Harkey faces Democrat Mike Levin in California’s 49th District. (Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The campaign arm of the League of Conservation Voters is launching a new television ad targeting Republican Diane Harkey on offshore drilling in an open-seat race in Southern California. 

Harkey, an elected member the California State Board of Equalization that oversees taxation, faces environmental lawyer Mike Levin for the 49th District seat that longtime GOP Rep. Darrell Issa is vacating.

Rosen Raises More Than $7 Million for Nevada Senate Race
Democratic congresswoman is challenging GOP Sen. Dean Heller

Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., is challenging Sen. Dean Heller, R-Nev., for Senate. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Nevada Democrat Jacky Rosen raised nearly $7.1 million in the third fundraising quarter in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Dean Heller, doubling her haul the previous quarter.

The freshman congresswoman ended Sept. 30 with $2.6 million on hand, according to fundraising numbers provided first to Roll Call. Her campaign noted that more than 95 percent of contributions have been donations of $100 or less with an average contribution of $54.