elections

Arizona’s Special Election Heads to Home Stretch
Both parties watching whether 8th District race will be close

Arizona Republican Debbie Lesko has benefited from significant outside spending in the 8th District special election. (Courtesy Debbie Lesko for Congress)

Rep. Trent Franks resigned in December amid allegations that he sexually harassed female staffers. Next week, no matter which party wins the race to replace the Arizona Republican, a woman will be elected to succeed him.

The April 24 special election in the 8th District pits former GOP state Sen. Debbie Lesko against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni, a cancer research advocate and former emergency room physician. The two could also meet again in November since both intend to file to run for a full term.

Analysis: Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.
It’s still too early to read too much into recent polling shifts

National surveys of President Donald Trump’s approval and the generic ballot appear to be dramatically changing, but the truth is more complicated than that, Rothenberg writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved of his performance.

Opinion: When the World of Politics Collides With the Real One
New political forces may impact midterms

The March for Our Lives rally demonstrated that millennials and young people may be a force to be reckoned with in the midterms, Mary C. Curtis writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

It is months away from November 2018, but that doesn’t stop predictions not only for the midterms but also for President Donald Trump’s re-election chances in 2020. But while the world of politics is preoccupied with whether a blue wave is inevitable or a figment of hopeful Democrats’ imagination, events outside the bubble might shift the electorate in unpredictable ways.

My Roll Call colleague Walter Shapiro explains, with examples from recent history, how politically fraught these pre-election prognostications can be. It’s also wise to remember how life and politics can be determined by “moments,” despite what consultants who make a living steering candidates and campaigns may say. And right now, America is in the middle of moments that could challenge conventional electoral wisdom.

Young Kim Launches First TV Ad in California’s 39th District
Kim is the first Republican in the crowded race to go on the airwaves

Former California Republican Assemblywoman Young Kim is running for the open 39th District seat. (Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call file photo).

Congressional hopeful Young Kim is the first Republican to go on the airwaves in the crowded race for California’s 39th District, launching a television ad Thursday. 

The spot, shared first with Roll Call, highlights the former assemblywoman’s ties to the man she is hoping to replace — retiring GOP Rep. Ed Royce. Kim worked for the congressman for two decades 

Phifer Drops out of Race to Succeed Nolan in Minnesota’s 8th District
Former FBI analyst received most votes at DFL convention but decided against running in primary

Minnesota Rep. Rick Nolan is not running for re-election. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Despite winning the most delegate votes at the Democratic-Farmer-Labor convention for Minnesota’s 8th District on Saturday, Leah Phifer announced Wednesday she will not run in the August primary.

The convention did not result in an endorsement because no candidate received the required 60 percent of the delegate votes.

Sinclair TV Owner Maxed Out Donations to Gianforte, Montana GOP
Robert E. Smith, who identified himself as ‘retired’ and worked in real estate, also donated to Trump’s campaign

Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., has received maximum campaign contributions from an owner of the Sinclair Broadcasting Group. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

An owner of the controversial Sinclair Broadcast Group has donated more than $10,000 to Montana Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte in the last year and a half.

Robert E. Smith, whose family owns the largest local television station operator in the country, gave the maximum $5,400 to Gianforte’s campaign in March, The Guardian reported. He did the same last year, ahead of Gianforte’s 6-point special election victory over Democrat Rob Quist.

Grayson Says He’s Running, but Not Where
Former Florida congressman has continued to raise money since leaving the House

Former  Rep. Alan Grayson, D-Fla., said he is running for Congress again. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democratic firebrand former Rep. Alan Grayson said he is running for Congress again but has not given indication where he will run.

The former Democratic congressman raised $192,000 in the first quarter of 2018, according to Orlando Rising, and reported having $694,967 in cash on hand at the beginning of April.

Report: Trump Campaign Demands Rokita Take Down Yard Signs
Say they give a false impression Trump endorsed Indiana Senate candidate

Rep. Todd Rokita, R-Ind., who is running for the Republican nomination for Senate in Indiana, addresses voters in South Bend, Indiana. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign said Indiana Rep. Todd Rokita’s campaign signs give the false impression that Trump endorsed his Senate candidacy.

Two people told The Associated Press that Trump’s campaign wants Rokita's campaign to take down the signs.

DCCC Adds Five More Candidates to Red to Blue Program
Two of them have said they won’t back Pelosi for Democratic leader

New Jersey Democrat Tom Malinowski, a former assistant secretary of State for democracy, human rights, and labor, is among the latest additions to the DCCC’s Red to Blue list. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is announcing its fifth round of Red to Blue candidates Wednesday. 

The five latest additions, obtained first by Roll Call, include two candidates running in districts that President Donald Trump carried by double digits, both of whom have said they wouldn’t support Nancy Pelosi for Democratic leader if elected. 

Why the Speaker Race Won’t Fade Away Until November
Potential candidates lack a path to 218 votes and need time to build coalitions

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is the front-runner to succeed retiring Speaker Paul D. Ryan, R-Wis., but there is a long way to go until the November elections. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

House Republicans don’t know if they will be holding a speaker’s race or a contest for minority leader come November, but that isn’t stopping them from preparing for the former. 

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, the leading candidate to replace retiring Speaker Paul D. Ryan, needs more time to build sufficient support to win a still-hypothetical speaker’s race. The same goes for other members eyeing the position.