Dave Trott

Analysis: Will the Suburbs Flip the House? Watch These Seats
If Trump keeps bleeding suburban support, GOP House majority could be at risk

Retiring Michigan Rep. Dave Trott’s 11th District is overwhelmingly suburban, offering Democrats a pickup opportunity. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

If elections and national surveys over the past year have shown us anything, it is that suburban voters could well be the key to the 2018 midterm House elections.

Turnout among minority voters and younger voters could affect the result in a district here or there, but an increase in suburban turnout or a substantial shift by suburban voters (especially suburban women) from the Republicans to the Democrats could have a much broader impact on the fight for control of the House.

Wealth of Congress: Richer Than Ever, but Mostly at the Very Top
Collectively, their gains have outpaced the market, net worth is five times U.S. median

Lawmakers are richer than ever — and their wealth has outpaced most voters and the markets. (Illustration by Cristina Byvik)

The people’s representatives just keep getting richer, and doing so faster than the people represented.

The cumulative net worth of senators and House members jumped by one-fifth in the two years before the start of this Congress, outperforming the typical American’s improved fortunes as well as the solid performance of investment markets during that time.

Ratings Changes: 15 Races Shift Toward Democrats, 1 Toward Republicans
Democratic chances have improved beyond Pennsylvania

From left, Democrats Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Stephanie Murphy of Florida are looking more secure in their re-elections this fall, while, from right, Republicans Ted Budd and Mimi Walters may be more vulnerable. (Bill Clark/Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call file photos)

Less than eight months before Election Day, the midterm landscape is still taking shape. It’s still not clear whether Democrats will have a good night (and potentially fall short of a majority) or a historic night in the House that puts them well over the top. But mounting evidence nationally and at the district level points to a Democratic advantage in a growing number of seats.

Democratic prospects improved in a handful of seats in Pennsylvania, thanks to a new, court-ordered map. And the party’s successes in state and local elections over the last 14 months demonstrate a surge in Democratic voters, particularly in blue areas, that could be problematic for Republican candidates in the fall. GOP incumbents in districts Hillary Clinton carried in 2016 might be particularly susceptible to increased Democratic enthusiasm.

Former Rep. Joe Knollenberg Dies at Age 84
Michigan Republican represented suburban Detroit

Former Rep. Joe Knollenberg died on Feb. 6, 2018, at age 84. (CQ Roll Call file photo)

Former Rep. Joe Knollenberg, a Michigan Republican who represented suburban Detroit for eight terms, died on Tuesday. He was 84.

Rep. Dave Trott, R-Mich., who represents parts of Knollenberg’s old Oakland County-based district, sent out a statement about the news. 

How the Open Seats Are (or Aren’t) Creating Opportunities in the House

House Seats You Think Can’t Flip but Might
Political wave elections create their own race dynamics

Rep. Sue W. Kelly lost her re-election bid in 2006 even though she appeared safe, having won two years earlier with 67 percent of the vote in a New York district carried by President George W. Bush. The result is a reminder that wave elections produce their own dynamics. (CQ Roll Call file photo)

Responses to the “generic ballot” poll question suggest a partisan electoral wave is building. But the fight for control of the House isn’t a single national election. It will be fought district by district, and national Democrats face challenges on the ground even with the generic ballot favoring them.

In Michigan, according to America Votes 2007-2008, the statewide congressional vote shifted noticeably from 2004 to 2006 — from 49 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic to 53 percent Democratic and 44 percent Republican — but that popular vote surge for the Democrats didn’t translate to a shift of even a single House seat.

At the Races: Moore Problems for GOP Ahead of 2018
GOP leaders struggles with Moore, and Northeastern Republicans face tough tax vote

Alabama GOP Senate candidate Roy Moore holds his book titled “Abuse of Power” about the Supreme Court’s same-sex marriage decision at a county GOP meeting in Valley, Ala., back in August. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Keep track of House and Senate races with At the Races! If you want to receive this weekly newsletter, make sure to sign up *here.* And we want to hear from you! Send us an email at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé and Bridget BowmanThis week…  More women accused Roy Moore of sexual misconduct, Republicans tried to figure out what to do about it, and some vulnerable members faced a tough choice on taxes. Here’s what happened At the Races:

Moore Problems: Allegations of sexual misconduct have upended the Alabama Senate race with GOP candidate Roy Moore accused of sexual assault, and sexual and romantic advances toward teenage girls when he was in his thirties. (Moore has denied any wrongdoing.) 

Las Vegas Massacre Survivors Join Nevada Lawmakers to Call for Action
Titus, Cortez Masto, Kihuen and Rosen want Goodlatte to hold hearings on bump stocks, pass restrictions

Las Vegas massacre survivors Robert Gaafar, left, and Tia Christiansen, center, speak with Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., after a news conference at the Capitol on Wednesday to call on House Judiciary chairman Bob Goodlatte to hold a hearing and examine the use and legality of “bump stocks.” (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Nevada Democratic lawmakers gathered at the House Triangle Wednesday with survivors of the Las Vegas massacre, who shared their stories of terror and the psychological impact.

The news conference took place on the one-month anniversary of the deadliest mass shooting in U.S. history.

Bipartisan Group Introduces Last-Ditch Bump Stock Bill
Bill would not ban the device, but subject it to an ATF registry

Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Mich., and three other lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill Tuesday aimed at regulating bump stocks. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

One month after the deadliest shooting in modern U.S. history, a bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced legislation that takes aim at the bump stock loophole in the National Firearms Act.

The so-called Closing the Bump Stock Loophole Act explicitly empowers the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives to immediately regulate bump stocks and similar semiautomatic rifle attachments that increase the rate of fire to nearly that of an automatic weapon.

Word on the Hill: Moulton Flashes Back to ‘Basic Instinct’ Uproar in Iraq
Your social calendar for the week

Rep. Seth Moulton, center, shares stories from Iraq on Barstool Sports’ “Zero Blog Thirty” podcast. (Barstool Sports via Twitter)

Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., recently shared some stories from his time in the Marine Corps with Barstool Sports’ “Zero Blog Thirty” podcast. He recalled bringing DVDs to Iraqi engineers to broadcast across the country, but didn’t tell them about the rating system the U.S. uses.

Moulton said, “one night they put in ‘Basic Instinct.’ They must have been asleep at the switch. What they usually did is they got to a racy part of the film, they had this like 10-volume set of Islamic history videos they would put in to sort of like quiet everybody down. Well, apparently they didn’t make the switch fast enough.”