David Young

A Back-of-the-Envelope Look at How the House Could Flip
Electoral waves, ranging in size, are the norm for midterms going back decades

Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., is running for Senate, leaving behind a House seat that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. It’s a prime takeover target for Democrats this fall. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Count the House races, and you’ll get a pretty good idea of whether the House will flip in the fall. No, you can’t be entirely certain how an individual toss-up contest is going to turn out in November. But you can arrive at a ballpark assessment of House changes right now by looking at three baskets of districts and how similar ones behaved in previous midterms.

There are 25 Republican House members representing districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016 (up from 23 before Pennsylvania drew a new congressional map). Almost one-third of those members, eight, are retiring. Given the current political polarization, the normal midterm dynamic (which punishes the president’s party) and the added risk of losing open seats, it’s likely that most of those 25 GOP districts will flip party control.

Koch Network Endorses 8 GOP House Members in Competitive Races
Conservative megadonors have pivoted their political strategy, raised Trump’s ire

Rep. Erik Paulsen, R-Minn., is one of the House members who Americans for Prosperity announced it would support. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The political arm of the Koch conservative brothers’ network announced the House candidates it would support as it shifts its political strategy.

Americans for Prosperity named eight members of Congress in competitive races as its “policy champions.”

$177.1 Billion Labor-HHS-Education Moves Forward With Family Separation Changes
House Appropriations has approved 11 of 12 fiscal 2019 spending measures

Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., wants the Labor-HHS-Education bill linked to the Defense bill. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The House Appropriations Committee late Wednesday evening approved, 30-22, a $177.1 billion fiscal 2019 bill to fund the departments of Labor, Education, and Health and Human Services.

The committee has now approved 11 of its 12 fiscal 2019 spending measures, following the marathon 13-hour markup of the massive nondefense bill that left lawmakers from both parties exasperated at various points. The debate covered family separations at the U.S.-Mexico border, gun research funding, abstinence-only sex education and thorny political issues around religious adoption agencies.

Here Are the Republicans Opposing Migrant Family Separation
A growing number of GOP legislators are breaking with the Trump administration’s policy

Activists protest against the policy of separating migrant children from their families on Monday in Los Angeles. (Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Legislators from both parties are raising their voices against the Trump administration policy separating undocumented migrant children from their parents when they cross the southern border.

The policy has garnered intense and unified Democratic opposition, with all 48 of the party’s senators endorsing a bill, proposed by California Sen. Dianne Feinstein, to reverse the policy. A growing number of Republicans also have come out against the current conditions on the border, while largely avoiding placing blame directly on President Donald Trump or his administration.

DCCC Adds 10 More Candidates to Red to Blue
Latest additions include winners of recent primaries

The DCCC has named Katie Hill, a Democrat running for California’s 25th District, to its Red to Blue program for promising challengers. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added 10 more challengers Friday to its Red to Blue program for strong recruits.

The eighth round of additions brings the total number of challengers on Red to Blue to 53. Many of the new additions have only recently won primaries. 

Iowa Democrats Pick 2 Women in Competitive House Races Against Blum, Young
Abby Finkenauer, Cindy Axne both avoid runoffs in Hawkeye State

Reps. Rod Blum, center, and David Young, right, here with fellow Iowa Republican Rep. Steve King at an event on the Hill in January, are facing competitive re-election races once again. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Iowa Democrats are targeting two Republican congressmen this fall, and they chose two women as their nominees in the 1st and 3rd districts in Tuesday’s primaries. No woman has ever been elected to the House from the Hawkeye State. 

President Donald Trump carried both districts in 2016, but Democrats believe a favorable national environment and strong challengers could make these Republicans vulnerable.

4 Things To Watch in Tuesday’s Primaries
Eight states will have primary contests

Democratic candidates in California’s 39th District — Mai Khanh Tran, left, Andy Thorburn, second from right, and Sam Jammal — talk with “Full Frontal With Samantha Bee” correspondent Ashley Nicole Black after an informal candidate forum in Rowland Heights on May 19. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Eight states are hosting primaries Tuesday, but all eyes will be on California — where the threat of Democrats getting shut out of a few top pickup opportunities they hope will help them win back the House looms large.

Several matchups will also be decided in competitive general election contests in Iowa, New Jersey, New Mexico and Montana.

Liberal Group Targets Swing Districts Over Tax Overhaul
Six-figure ad campaign airs in Iowa, Maine and Washington districts

Republican Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash., is having an ad in her district criticizing the new tax law for which she voted. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

A liberal outside group is targeting incumbent Republicans for their vote in support of the tax legislation that was passed last year.

Tax March, a liberal group critical of the law, said the ad was part of a six-figure ad campaign.

Liberal Groups Release Polls Showing Health Care Could Hurt GOP Incumbents
Release comes one year after House Republicans passed their health care bill

Members of the New Jersey Citizen Action group protest outside the Capitol on July 26, 2017, as the Senate held a second day of voting on health care legislation. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A coalition of liberal groups is releasing new polling to show that health care could be a key issue in the midterms,  and that a vote for the Republican health care plan last year could come back to hurt  GOP incumbents. 

The polls, commissioned by the Health Care Voter coalition, were conducted in seven House districts and statewide in Nevada and Tennessee. The results, shared first with Roll Call, come one year after House Republicans and President Donald Trump celebrated passing the GOP health care bill, which would have dismantled parts of the 2010 health care law. That effort stalled in the Senate and the bill did not become law.

Trump, Abe Split on Goal for New Trade Talks
Japanese PM wants U.S. return to TPP; Trump wants ‘one-one-one’ pact

Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe speaks during a press conference on Wednesday with U.S. President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in West Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe split Wednesday evening on their goals for a new round of trade talks between the longtime allies, exposing a rift in the alliance.

Abe announced the new U.S.-Japanese trade talks during a joint press conference after the first full day of a mini-summit at Trump’s resort in Florida. But Abe broke with Trump by telling reporters he wants those talks to expand the two countries levels of trade and investment in each other’s markets, and the re-entry of the United States in a trade alliance that includes 11 Asian-Pacific countries.