Erik Paulsen

Breaking the Midterm Mode: Both Parties Make it About Trump
2018 provides yet another departure from political norms

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., is among the Democrats whose re-election prospects could be hurt by the nationalizing of the midterms, Rothenberg writes. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

ANALYSIS — For decades, the rule of thumb for campaigns during midterm elections has been the same: When the president is popular, the president’s party tries to nationalize the election, and the opposition attempts to localize it. On the other hand, when the president is unpopular, his party’s nominees try to localize while the opposition tries to make the election a national referendum on his performance. Perhaps not surprisingly, 2018 has broken that mold.

Both sides are trying to nationalize the November election.

Republicans Need a Cold Compress With Less Than One Month to Go
Presidential pain still plagues vulnerable incumbents ahead of the midterms

President Donald Trump may turn out Democrats better than any Democrat could. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

ANALYSIS — Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.

From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and severity. And Republicans’ ability to alleviate them will determine control of the House and Senate in the 116th Congress.

At the Races: The 10 Most Vulnerable Incumbents
Our weekly newsletter on congressional campaigns

Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé, Bridget Bowman and Stephanie Akin

Trump Says Democrats’ Opposition to Kavanaugh Fueled by ‘Rage’
President’s narrow loss in Minnesota in 2016 gives GOP leaders hope for miderms

President Donald Trump was in Minnesota for fundraisers and a campaign rally Thursday. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Senate Democrats’ opposition to Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is fueled by “rage,” President Donald Trump said Thursday night at another raucous campaign rally, this time in Minnesota.

Trump again criticized Democrats for their handling of sexual assault allegations against his high court nominee less than 24 hours before a planned procedural vote that is expected to tee up a make-or-break Saturday confirmation vote.

The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents: Blum’s Still the One
Erik Paulsen and Bruce Poliquin make the list for first time this cycle

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum remains the most vulnerable incumbent. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

With one month to go until Election Day, two new names are on our latest ranking of the most vulnerable House incumbents, but once again, the list remains all-Republican.

Despite widely over-performing President Donald Trump in his district in 2016, Minnesota Rep. Erik Paulsen looks to be in tougher shape this year in a seat Hillary Clinton comfortably carried. He has company — four of the most vulnerable incumbents are running in Clinton districts, with Colorado’s Mike Coffman and Kansas’ Kevin Yoder moving up on the list. 

Your Boss Is Becoming More Vulnerable. When Do You Move On?
A breakdown of when your paychecks will stop coming in

If election night doesn’t look like this for you and your boss, how long will you have to pound the pavement? (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Staffers, start updating your résumés. Your job security just took a hit in the latest round of ratings changes from Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.

Inside Elections downgraded the re-election chances of 21 Republican House members last week. Of the GOP incumbents running for another term, 22 are now either underdogs or dead even in their bids.

Are Minnesota’s Trump Voters Looking for a Check on Him?
Dan Feehan and Jim Hagedorn have different ideas of what Trump voters want

Jim Hagedorn, the Republican candidate for Minnesota’s 1st District, campaigns in the Applefest parade in La Crescent on Sept. 16. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

MANKATO, Minn. — With his portrait framed on the wall, President Donald Trump watches over Jim Hagedorn’s subterranean campaign office here.

Trump’s strong showing in this southern Minnesota district is the reason the open seat is one of Republicans’ few pickup opportunities this year.

GOP Super PAC Plans Day of Voter Outreach
Congressional Leadership Fund is aiming to reach 500,000 voters

Interns work the phones at the Congressional Leadership Fund office in Rep. Steve Knight’s district in Lancaster, Calif., in May. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The super PAC aligned with House Republican leadership is launching another day of outreach Saturday, aiming to contact 500,000 voters in 40 competitive House districts. 

Congressional Leadership Fund set up field offices in districts across the country, starting in February 2017, and has been aggressively airing television ads starting in earnest in early August. 

At the Races: Land of 10,000 Races
Our weekly newsletter on congressional campaigns

AT-THE-RACES-LOGO-01

Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé, Bridget Bowman and Stephanie Akin

With Trump in the White House, Minnesota Ticket-Splitters May Be Ready for Change
Erik Paulsen is facing a competitive challenge from Democrat Dean Phillips

Dean Phillips, the DFL nominee in Minnesota’s 3rd District, greets voters in Excelsior, Minn., on Sept. 15 outside his campaign’s “Government Repair Truck.” (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

PLYMOUTH, Minn. — Erik Paulsen has been a survivor.

When Hillary Clinton carried Minnesota’s 3rd District last cycle by 9 points, the Republican congressman won re-election by 14 points.