Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren is sitting atop polls in Iowa and New Hampshire; if she wins both, Warren could be unstoppable. But a Warren presidency doesn’t mean she gets carte blanche to transform the U.S. economy. And that’s the silver lining for wavering Trump voters, Cohn writes. (Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call file photo)
ANALYSIS — There’s a silver lining for suburban voters who backed President Donald Trump in 2016 and who’ve grown weary of his antics but can’t stomach the assault on their pocketbooks they see coming from the Democrats.
Extrapolating from 2016 exit polls, Trump’s margin with suburbanites in four critical swing states — Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — was roughly 1 million votes. Considering Trump’s 190,655-vote margin overall in those states, Democrats just need to claw back about one-fifth of the suburbs.