Keith Rothfus

The 10 Most Vulnerable House Incumbents: Blum’s Still the One
Erik Paulsen and Bruce Poliquin make the list for first time this cycle

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum remains the most vulnerable incumbent. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

With one month to go until Election Day, two new names are on our latest ranking of the most vulnerable House incumbents, but once again, the list remains all-Republican.

Despite widely over-performing President Donald Trump in his district in 2016, Minnesota Rep. Erik Paulsen looks to be in tougher shape this year in a seat Hillary Clinton comfortably carried. He has company — four of the most vulnerable incumbents are running in Clinton districts, with Colorado’s Mike Coffman and Kansas’ Kevin Yoder moving up on the list. 

House GOP Moving Right, Democratic Direction Less Clear
With pragmatists in fewer supply among Republicans, conference will be in less of a mood to compromise

The retirement of pragmatic Republicans like Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., threatens to move the House Republican Conference further to the right. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

ANALYSIS — We don’t know exactly how many House seats Democrats will gain in November, though Democratic control of the chamber next year looks almost inevitable. But even now it is clear that the midterm results will move Republicans further to the right. Where the Democrats will stand is less clear.

In the House, GOP losses will be disproportionately large in the suburbs and among members of the Republican Main Street Partnership, the House GOP group that puts “country over party” and values “compromise over conflict,” according to its website.

DCCC Cancels Airtime in Potential Sign of Trouble for Iowa’s Rod Blum
Move signals Democrats are confident in their challenger Abby Finkenauer

Rep. Rod Blum, R-Iowa, is one of the most vulnerable House incumbents. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has canceled its television ad reservation in the race against Republican Rep. Rod Blum in Iowa’s 1st District, according to a media tracking firm, which could signal that Democrats are confident about flipping the seat.

Blum faces state Rep. Abby Finkenauer, whom Democrats tout as a top recruit. The DCCC’s decision, reported by the firm Medium Buying, signals Finkenauer might not need as much help, and the committee wants to spend its resources elsewhere. The DCCC did not immediately respond to a request for comment. 

The 10 Most Vulnerable House Members in 2018 List Remains All-Republican
Iowa Rep. Rod Blum is once again in the top spot

Rep. Rod Blum, R-Iowa, remains at the top of the list of vulnerable House members. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With Election Day two months away, all 10 of the most vulnerable House members are Republicans, with one new addition.

Rep. Carlos Curbelo of Florida has been replaced on the list by Kansas Rep. Kevin Yoder, who even some Republicans acknowledge is in a more tenuous position given his district, voting record and Democratic challenger.

5 States That Will Decide the House Majority
Watch these states to tell if Democrats are having a good election night

California Democrat Harley Rouda, here with a supporter at a rally in Laguna Beach in May, is challenging GOP Rep. Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With a growing number of vulnerable House districts, there might be too much to watch for on election night. But by focusing on just a handful of states, you can get a pretty good idea of whether Democrats are having a good enough night to gain the 23 seats necessary to win back the majority.

Competitive races: 5

Keith Rothfus Unfazed by New Poll Showing Conor Lamb Ahead
Pennsylvania Republican says he still has to introduce himself to voters in new district

Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus faces Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb in the newly drawn 17th District in November. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Pennsylvania Republican Rep. Keith Rothfus isn’t particularly worried about a new poll that showed his fall opponent, Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb, in a strong position in the 17th District race. 

The Monmouth University poll released Tuesday showed Lamb with at least a 10 point lead under three different turnout models in the western Pennsylvania district.

House Passes Bipartisan Opioid Bill Package
Bill ‘does not adequately deal with the magnitude of the crisis,’ Pallone says

House Energy and Commerce Chairman Greg Walden of Oregon helped put together the opioids package that passed Friday. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The House on Friday passed a bill that will serve as the legislative vehicle for many of the 55 other House-passed bills designed to curb opioid addiction, ending two weeks of floor votes on opioids measures.

The catchall bill, which advanced 396-14, would incorporate a number of proposals from the Energy and Commerce and the Ways and Means committees relating to Medicaid, Medicare, and public health. A group of 161 patient advocacy groups wrote to Speaker Paul D. Ryan and Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi this week in support of the legislation.

Time Running Out in Ryan’s Quest to Overhaul Welfare Programs
Speaker returns to Jack Kemp roots as he targets SNAP and TANF

In his remaining months as speaker, Paul D. Ryan is making one last push on poverty. Above, Bishop Shirley Holloway helps Ryan unveil his plan for “A Better Way” in Anacostia in 2016. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo

Speaker Paul D. Ryan has spent his 20-year congressional career primarily focused on two issues, taxes and poverty. The Wisconsin Republican led a major rewrite of the tax code last year, but when he retires at the end of this term he won’t have many accomplishments to tout on poverty.

The last big win for conservatives in the so-called War on Poverty was the 1996 welfare overhaul, Ryan acknowledged on PBS’ “Firing Line” earlier this month.

House Prepares for Week of Action on Opioid Bills
‘Collectively these bills do not go far enough’

Rep. Frank Pallone, D-N.J., participates in the House Democrats’ news conference on health care reform in the Capitol on Thursday, July 20, 2017. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The House will begin a voting marathon Tuesday on 34 bills designed to address the opioid epidemic. While most are not likely to be contentious, two have previously stirred controversy.

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., reserved about a week and a half of floor time to discuss opioid legislation. Additional bills are likely to be considered next week, such as four bill packages the House Ways and Means Committee approved with bipartisan support.

Rating Changes in 19 House Races, All Toward Democrats
In total, 68 GOP-held seats are now rated competitive

New Mexico Democrat Xochitl Torres Small is running for the seat GOP Rep. Steve Pearce is vacating to run for governor. The 2nd District race is now rated Leans Republican. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Despite forecasts of a blue tsunami, it’s still not guaranteed that Democrats will win back the House majority. But the playing field of competitive House races is expanding and shifting to almost exclusively Republican territory.

After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead.