NV-04

Democrats Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018
DCCC names 19 incumbents to Frontline Program

New Hampshire Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, chairwoman of the DCCC’s Frontline Program, is herself a Frontline member heading into 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Monday is naming 19 members to the Frontline Program for its most vulnerable incumbents in 2018.

The initial Frontline roster, obtained first by Roll Call, is about half freshman members. Eight members won in districts President Donald Trump carried last fall. And all of them, save for one, are National Republican Congressional Committee initial targets.

NRCC Goes After Blue-Collar Districts in 2018
GOP campaign arm releases list of 36 initial targets

Rep. Tim Walz speaks with guests during a campaign event in Duluth for fellow Minnesota Rep. Rick Nolan last fall. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee’s initial list of offensive targets for 2018 includes 36 Democrat-held districts, many in blue-collar areas of the country.

If Democrats are targeting the well-educated suburbs (see New Jersey’s 11th District, for example), where Donald Trump either barely won or underperformed, Republicans are going after many rural districts where Hillary Clinton underperformed the congressional ticket. 

Democrat Ruben Kihuen Unseats Cresent Hardy in Nevada's 4th District
GOP’s Hardy was considered one of the most vulnerable House members

Rep.-elect Ruben Kihuen, D-Nev., delivers his victory speech flanked by his family and supporters at the Nevada Democrats' election night watch party at the Aria Hotel and Resort in Las Vegas on Election Day. (Photo By Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Democrat Ruben Kihuen will defeat Republican Rep. Cresent Hardy in Nevada’s 4th District, The Associated Press projects. 

Kihuen led Hardy 49 percent to 45 percent with 46 percent of precincts reporting. 

Cliven Bundy Sues Kihuen Over Attack Ad
Says Nevada Democratic candidate falsely tied him to death of 2 officers

Ruben Kihuen, Democratic candidate for Nevada’s 4th Congressional district, is facing a legal challenge from Cliven Bundy. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

How Many House Seats Will Democrats Pick Up? Watch These Districts
Certain district types may provide early clues

Democrats need to knock off Republicans who sit in seats President Barack Obama won, like Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, center, and Frank Guinta, R-N.H., right. Defeating Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Colo., would suggest more of a wave. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Not all districts are created equal. They all count the same when adding for a majority, but victories in one type of district may portend a much better night for Democrats than in others. With just four days to go until Election Day, Democrats almost surely won’t gain the 30 seats needed for a House majority on Tuesday. But they will make some gains. Here’s where to watch for early clues as to just how big or small Democratic gains will be.

To achieve double-digit gains, Democrats must win the known battlegrounds. These are the districts that always were going to be competitive, and where presidential year turnout usually gives Democrats an advantage. At the very least, Democrats need to win the districts that President Barack Obama carried — places like Illinois’ 10th District, Nevada’s 4th and 3rd Districts, Maine’s 2nd District, Florida’s 26th District, (which is now even more Democratic), Iowa’s 1st District and New York’s 19th District. If they’re not able to win these seats, Democratic gains in the House will likely be very minimal.  

Obama Blasts Issa, Heck Campaigning for Down-Ballot Democrats
Democrats shifting from presidential race to control of Congress

Vice President Joe Biden will campaign in a key Senate race this week. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

President Barack Obama continued a Democratic full-court press on down-ballot Republicans, campaigning and cutting ads in key Senate and House races.

Holding a solid lead over Republican Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton has also turned her attention to those races, too. She will likely give some aid to North Carolina Senate challenger Deborah Ross when she campaigns in Winston-Salem with Michelle Obama on Thursday.

House GOP Super PAC Investing Record Sums in 15 Districts
Congressional Leadership Fund to spend more than it did in 2012 and 2014

Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, seen here with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, is getting help from the Congressional Leadership Fund. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC backed by House Republican leadership, is pouring another $10.7 million into House races as the GOP seeks to defend their hold on the lower chamber and flip several Democratic-held seats. 

The additional spending brings the fund's general election expenditures this cycle to $20.7 million in 15 House districts, nearly twice what it spent in 2014 and 2012. The super PAC spent $11.6 million in 2014 and $10.7 million in 2012.