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Democrats Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018
DCCC names 19 incumbents to Frontline Program

New Hampshire Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, chairwoman of the DCCC’s Frontline Program, is herself a Frontline member heading into 2018. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Monday is naming 19 members to the Frontline Program for its most vulnerable incumbents in 2018.

The initial Frontline roster, obtained first by Roll Call, is about half freshman members. Eight members won in districts President Donald Trump carried last fall. And all of them, save for one, are National Republican Congressional Committee initial targets.

NRCC Goes After Blue-Collar Districts in 2018
GOP campaign arm releases list of 36 initial targets

Rep. Tim Walz speaks with guests during a campaign event in Duluth for fellow Minnesota Rep. Rick Nolan last fall. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee’s initial list of offensive targets for 2018 includes 36 Democrat-held districts, many in blue-collar areas of the country.

If Democrats are targeting the well-educated suburbs (see New Jersey’s 11th District, for example), where Donald Trump either barely won or underperformed, Republicans are going after many rural districts where Hillary Clinton underperformed the congressional ticket. 

Gubernatorial Losers Descend on Next Congress
Up to six new House Members previously lost a race for governor

Rep.-elect Anthony Brown, who lost a governor’s race in Maryland two years ago, walks down the House steps for the 115th Congress freshman class group photo during the first week of orientation on Nov. 15. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Getting to know your new classmates is always an awkward experience, but a handful of new House members will have at least one thing in common: losing a race for governor.

Two years ago, Democrat Anthony Brown lost the Maryland gubernatorial race to Republican Larry Hogan in an upset, 51 percent to 47 percent. But the former lieutenant governor rebounded to win a competitive Democratic primary this year in Maryland’s 4th District when Rep. Donna Edwards decided to run for the Senate. Brown cruised in the general election and will be coming to Congress next year.

Democrat Tom Suozzi Elected in New York’s 3rd District
Defeats Republican Jack Martins as party keeps retiring Rep. Steve Israel's seat

Tom Suozzi will succeed Rep. Steve Israel in New York's 3rd District, keeping the seat in Democratic hands. (Photo courtesy Suozzi campaign website)

As the Steve Israel era ends in New York’s 3rd congressional district, the incumbent Democrat’s party will keep the seat. Democrat Tom Suozzi defeated Republican state Sen. Jack Martins to become Israel’s replacement-elect, The Associated Press projects.

Suozzi led Martins 53 percent to 47 percent with 94 percent of precincts reporting. 

Ratings Change: 5 House Races Shift Toward Democrats
But Democrats are still waiting for wave required to win majority

The good news for Republicans is that the bottom hasn’t fallen out from underneath their down-ballot candidates. The bad news is that there are still nearly three weeks left before Election Day, and 24 hours in each day for Donald Trump to torpedo the party’s chances of holding the House.

District-level polling after the release of the 2005 “Access Hollywood” video and the second debate between Trump and Hillary Clinton showed some vulnerability for Republicans, particularly in suburban districts. But we didn’t see a widespread cratering of GOP candidates in the competitive districts or evidence that the number of competitive seats is increasing dramatically.

New York Could Hold Key to Democratic Majority in House
Tuesday's primaries are first hurdle in flipping competitive seats

New York Republican Rep. John Katko is one of the Democrats' top targets this year. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrats are in a New York State of mind. 

Their party must pick up 30 seats to win control of the House, and to even come close, they need to sweep all or most of the competitive New York seats.