NY-19

24 House Republicans Face Attacks Over Health Care Vote
Liberal advocacy group targets Republicans in TV and digital ads

The liberal advocacy group Save My Care is attacking Arizona Rep. Martha McSally for her vote for the GOP health care plan. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Twenty-four GOP members of Congress home on recess this week will be greeted by a new six-figure ad campaign attacking them for their vote in the House last week for the Republican health care plan. 

The liberal health care advocacy group Save My Care is launching a TV and digital advertising campaign worth more than half a million dollars on Monday that will run this week. 

Health Care Vote Takes Away GOP’s Offensive Campaign Message
Repeal has been winning message, but GOP now has plan of its own to defend

Iowa Rep. Rod Blum, a Freedom Caucus member and Democratic target, voted for the health care bill. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

For nearly seven years, Republicans have run — and won — on the campaign promise to get rid of the 2010 health care law.

But now that House Republicans are on record on their own replacement plan, that unifying offensive message has faded, especially since some of their most vulnerable incumbents are at odds with leadership and the White House on what’s being touted as the party’s first major legislative victory this Congress.

Republicans Identify Vulnerable Members for 2018
NRCC announces initial round of Patriot Program

Minnesota freshman Rep. Jason Lewis is part of the NRCC’s initial Patriot Program. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

The National Republican Congressional Committee has named 10 members to its Patriot Program for incumbents who are expected to face tough re-election races in 2018.

“Our Patriots are a group of battle-tested members who won hard-fought races in 2016 and are ready to win once again,” Rep. Steve Stivers, the NRCC chairman, said in a statement Wednesday. 

Gubernatorial Losers Descend on Next Congress
Up to six new House Members previously lost a race for governor

Rep.-elect Anthony Brown, who lost a governor’s race in Maryland two years ago, walks down the House steps for the 115th Congress freshman class group photo during the first week of orientation on Nov. 15. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Getting to know your new classmates is always an awkward experience, but a handful of new House members will have at least one thing in common: losing a race for governor.

Two years ago, Democrat Anthony Brown lost the Maryland gubernatorial race to Republican Larry Hogan in an upset, 51 percent to 47 percent. But the former lieutenant governor rebounded to win a competitive Democratic primary this year in Maryland’s 4th District when Rep. Donna Edwards decided to run for the Senate. Brown cruised in the general election and will be coming to Congress next year.

New Member: Republican John Faso Wins New York’s 19th District
The district was a key to Democrats looking to win back the House

Republican John Faso will replace Rep. Chris Gibson's in New York's 19th District. (Photo courtesy John Faso Facebook page)

Republican John J. Faso will defeat Democrat Zephyr Teachout in New York’s 19th District, the Associated Press projects. 

Faso led Teachout 52 percent to 48 percent with 68 percent of precincts reporting.

Teachout Sends Out Victory and Concession Speech
Comes as Democratic House candidate falls behind Republican John Faso

The most recent polls show Democrat Zephyr Teachout trailing Republican John Faso in the Tossup race to succeed retiring GOP Rep.Chris Gibson. (Andrew Burton/Getty Images file photo)

How Many House Seats Will Democrats Pick Up? Watch These Districts
Certain district types may provide early clues

Democrats need to knock off Republicans who sit in seats President Barack Obama won, like Maine Rep. Bruce Poliquin, R-Maine, center, and Frank Guinta, R-N.H., right. Defeating Rep. Scott Tipton, R-Colo., would suggest more of a wave. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Not all districts are created equal. They all count the same when adding for a majority, but victories in one type of district may portend a much better night for Democrats than in others. With just four days to go until Election Day, Democrats almost surely won’t gain the 30 seats needed for a House majority on Tuesday. But they will make some gains. Here’s where to watch for early clues as to just how big or small Democratic gains will be.

To achieve double-digit gains, Democrats must win the known battlegrounds. These are the districts that always were going to be competitive, and where presidential year turnout usually gives Democrats an advantage. At the very least, Democrats need to win the districts that President Barack Obama carried — places like Illinois’ 10th District, Nevada’s 4th and 3rd Districts, Maine’s 2nd District, Florida’s 26th District, (which is now even more Democratic), Iowa’s 1st District and New York’s 19th District. If they’re not able to win these seats, Democratic gains in the House will likely be very minimal.  

Ratings Changes in 12 Competitive House Races
6 races shift toward Democrats but 6 improve for Republicans

Iowa Rep. David Young's' re-election contest in the state's 3rd District moves from Tossup to Tilts Republican, according to The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report/Roll Call's latest race rating. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

With five weeks to go before Election Day, Democrats are still waiting for Donald Trump to create the nationwide swell that would be necessary to put the Republicans’ House majority into play. House races are often late to engage but, thus far, the developments have been a mixed bag for Democrats, keeping sizable gains out of reach.

The lack of vulnerable Democrats — and the resiliency of many Republican incumbents in the face of an unpopular presidential nominee — could amount to a historic election in the House, but not in the way one might think. The cycle could produce the fewest number of House seats to flip party control in 60 years.

Faso and Teachout in Close House Race in New York
Trump also leads Clinton by 5 points in Empire State's 19th District

New York Rep. Chris Gibson's decision to retire opened up his 19th District seat. (Al Drago/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Republican John Faso and Democrat Zephyr Teachout are about even in New York's 19th Congressional District, a Time Warner Cable News/Siena College poll released Tuesday shows.

The poll, which surveyed 678 likely voters in the district, found 43 percent supporting Faso, a former state Assembly minority leader, and 42 percent behind Teachout, a onetime gubernatorial candidate. Fifteen percent said they were unsure or had no opinion.

House GOP Super PAC Investing Record Sums in 15 Districts
Congressional Leadership Fund to spend more than it did in 2012 and 2014

Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, seen here with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, is getting help from the Congressional Leadership Fund. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC backed by House Republican leadership, is pouring another $10.7 million into House races as the GOP seeks to defend their hold on the lower chamber and flip several Democratic-held seats. 

The additional spending brings the fund's general election expenditures this cycle to $20.7 million in 15 House districts, nearly twice what it spent in 2014 and 2012. The super PAC spent $11.6 million in 2014 and $10.7 million in 2012.