By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

Connecticut has joined the rest of New England in providing a solid base for Democrats in presidential elections, and there is little reason to believe its seven votes will not go to Barack Obama this year.

The state once held to the Yankee Republican traditions of the region, and the erstwhile Republican suburbs of New York City kept Connecticut a swing state right through 1988, when the elder George Bush — the Texas transplant whose father was a senator from Connecticut — extended a GOP presidential winning streak to five elections. But Democrats have since held the upper hand, winning the past four White House contests. George W. Bush , who was born in New Haven, lost Connecticut by a bit more than 10 percentage points in 2004 and by more than 17 points in 2000.

The road to success has not been without potholes for Democrats, who had a tumultuous year in 2006. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman , who had won three terms as a Democrat and was the party’s vice presidential nominee in 2000, was vilified by liberal activists for supporting the Iraq War and lost the 2006 primary to anti-war businessman Ned Lamont. Lieberman, though, won re-election by running a third-party campaign and declared himself an “independent Democrat” when he returned to Washington. That same year, centrist Republican incumbent M. Jodi Rell won the governor’s race.

But last time out, Connecticut Democrats defeated Republican moderates who held two of the state’s House seats, with Christopher S. Murphy ousting Nancy L. Johnson in the state’s northwest and Joe Courtney defeating Rob Simmons in eastern Connecticut. Only a second consecutive narrow escape by veteran Republican Rep. Christopher Shays in his southwestern suburban New York City district prevented a clean Democratic sweep of all five House seats.

Democrats this year again focused their attentions on an effort to elbow out Shays, who is now the only Republican among New England’s 22 House members. The combination of a new strong candidate in former investment banker Jim Himes and boosted turnout for the presidential election could push Democrats over the top this time, predicts political consultant Roy Occhiogrosso. Himes entered the race in April 2007 and has almost matched Shays dollar-for-dollar in fundraising.

Turnout was relatively low in 2006 in the district’s largest city, Bridgeport, but should be higher this year because 31 percent of the city’s residents are black and their presumed enthusiasm for Obama might benefit the Democratic ticket down-ballot.

Republicans, meanwhile, face difficult challenges in the two districts they lost last time, while national Democratic officials are providing assistance to Murphy and Courtney, who are favored to hold the seats.

Courtney, nicknamed “Landslide Joe” for his 83-vote margin over Simmons, appears set for an easier victory this time around. His Republican challenger is lawyer Sean Sullivan, a Navy veteran and former commander of the district’s Groton naval base. Sullivan’s lackluster fundraising, which some see as disinterest in the rigors of campaigning, weakens his candidacy. Courtney raised more than five times more money than Sullivan by June 30 and had nearly 10 times more cash on hand.

Murphy faces a more rigorous challenge from GOP state Sen. David Cappiello, who comes equipped with a political base and campaign experience. Yet the $1 million Cappiello raised at midyear still put him at a big disadvantage to Murphy, who raised $2.3 million.