Minnesota - 1st District

South -- Rochester, Mankato

CQ Politics Race Rating: Likely Democratic

House Race Rating Chart

Incumbent — Tim Walz (D); Running for re-election

Most Recent Election
Year	Election	Candidate	Votes	Percent
2008	general	Tim Walz (D)	207,753	62.5%
		Brian Davis (R)	109,453	32.9%

Details and state election history

Walz’ re-election whirl in 2008, by a margin of nearly 30 percentage points, was surprisingly easy, considering that he won by 5 points in 2006 when he unseated six-term Republican Gil Gutknecht. His 1st District in southern Minnesota is a partisan battleground that favored Republican incumbent George W. Bush for president in 2004 and Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 by identical votes of 51 percent to 47 percent.

So Walz can’t yet feel secure heading into his 2010 campaign. He is a tempting target for Republican strategists in their efforts to win back a seat in Minnesota, a state that overall has a Democratic lean and provides a 5-3 advantage for that party in the House delegation.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, which orchestrates the GOP’s national House campaign, has included Walz among its list of Democratic incumbents to be challenged in 2010, and has accused the congressman of voting in lock-step with Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and a House Democratic agenda that they’ve tried to paint as too liberal for the district.

But the Republicans are still in search of a strong challenger candidate after 2008 primary winner Davis disappointed in the November election. The GOP’s chances would have vastly improved had Walz opted to run in next year’s open-seat race for Minnesota governor — Republican Tim Pawlenty is retiring — but Walz ruled that out in an interview with the Minneapolis Star-Tribune on June 4.

Lt. Gov. Carol Molnau and state Sen. Julie Rosen are taking a look at the race, as is Davis, a physician, despite the thumping he took in the 2008. For now, retired military veteran Frank McKinzie is the only announced Republican candidate.

Race Information

Incumbent: Tim Walz, D
First Elected: 2006 (2nd term)
Last Elected: 2008 (62.5%)
Incumbent Status: Running for re-election
CQ Politics Race Rating: Likely Democratic

District Information

Politics in America District Profile

Stretching from the flat plains at the South Dakota border to the towering bluffs overlooking the Mississippi River, Minnesota’s rural 1st District is cut horizontally by Interstate 90 and vertically by Interstate 35. Rural areas continue to lose population to the Twin Cities and elsewhere in the region, but cities such as Mankato and Rochester, home to an IBM facility and the Mayo Clinic, remain stable. Agriculture and food processing still drive the local economy.

Corn, soybeans, sugar beets, hogs and dairy are staples here. The 1st has one of the highest agricultural market values of any district in the country. Farming here is valued at roughly $3 billion and more than 20,000 farms dot the 1st’s landscape. Food processing, from fresh turkey to canned soups, is prevalent throughout the area west of Rochester. West of Mankato, no town has more than 15,000 residents.

Rochester, the district’s largest city and the third-largest city in Minnesota, is an overwhelmingly educated city: 38 percent of the city’s residents hold at least a bachelor’s degree and 16 percent hold a graduate degree. Declines in patient visiting at the Mayo Clinic, as a result of nationwide economic downturns, would affect service and hospitality industries here, as well. Rochester hosts the newest University of Minnesota campus, and Winona and Mankato both have state universities.

Although the 1st is still more than 90 percent white, Hispanic, Asian and black immigrants have come to the district to work in processing plants, in agriculture and at Rochester’s hospitals. Worthington in particular has a large immigrant population and a significant proportion of non-English-speaking children enrolled in its schools.

The 1st is politically moderate, but it has leaned more Democratic in federal elections in recent years. Rep. Tim Walz was elected to his second term by a nearly 2-to-1 margin, and Barack Obama carried the district with 51 percent in the 2008 presidential election.

Major Industry

Agriculture, food processing, health care

Cities

Rochester, 85,806; Mankato, 32,427; Winona, 27,069; Austin, 23,314; Owatonna, 22,434

Notable

The birthplace of SPAM, Austin is home to the SPAM Museum.

Demographics (2000 census): Population: 614,935; Under 18: 25.5%; Over 65: 15.1%; Married: 59%; Non-Hispanic White: 93%; Black: 1%; Hispanic: 3%; Asian: 2%; Foreign Born: 4%; Language other than English: 6.9%; Median Household Income: 40,941; Owner Occupied Housing: 76.8%; Income above $200k: 1.4

Workforce/Education (2000 census): White Collar: 56.7%; Blue Collar: 28.3%; Services: 15.0%; Bachelor's Degree: 22%; Graduate Education: 6.7%; Civilian Veterans: 59,436

District Election History
Year	Election	Candidate	Votes	Percent
2008	general	Tim Walz (D)	207,753	62.5%
		Brian Davis (R)	109,453	32.9%
		Gregory Mikkelson (INDC)	14,904	4.5%

2006	general	Tim Walz (D)	141,556	52.7%
2006	general	Gil Gutknecht (R)	126,486	47.1%

2004	general	Gil Gutknecht (R)	193,132	59.6%
		Leigh Pomeroy (D)	115,088	35.5%
		Gregory Mikkelson (INDC)	15,569	4.8%

2002	general	Gil Gutknecht (R)	163,570	61.5%
		Steve Andreasen (D)	92,165	34.6%
		Gregory Mikkelson (GREEN)	9,964	3.8%