U.S. House, Kentucky - 3rd District
Louisville and suburbs
Race Forecast: Democrat Favored
2008: Rep.
2006:
As she seeks to reclaim the Louisville-centered district she represented from 1997 until her loss to Yarmuth in 2006, Northrup is targeting Yarmuth for his vote for the $700 billion financial rescue law and some budget votes as examples of what she says is his fiscal profligacy and pro-tax views. Yarmuth, who voted against an initial version of the bailout that Congress rejected, said in the Louisville Courier-Journal that he “was faced with two awful choices: voting for a bill that I hate or doing nothing to stop an economic meltdown that would lead to massive job loss in Louisville and throughout the country.” Yarmuth is looking to avoid the fate of Kentucky Democrat Mike Ward, the former one-term congressman whom Northrup unseated in 1996. But Yarmuth merits the edge.
Race Information
- Incumbent: Rep. John Yarmuth, D
- First Elected: 2006 (1st term)
- Last Elected: 2006 (50.62%)
- Incumbent Status: Running for re-election
- Race Forecast: Democrat Favored
District Information
Politics in America District Profile
With the Ohio River to the west, the 3rd sprawls across ethnically and economically diverse neighborhoods of Louisville Metro. Compared to the rest of the state, Louisville has a sizable black population — more than one-third of Kentucky’s blacks live here.
Although statewide staple tobacco still aids the 3rd’s hearty economy, other sectors now rival it. Local officials have focused on attracting new businesses to the area, and Louisville now has many health care and insurance firms. Louisville’s airport is an international hub for United Parcel Service, one of the area’s largest private employers.
Manufacturing still retains a large local presence: Two Ford assembly plants provide nearly 9,000 jobs, although many worry about the company’s future plans to close plants. General Electric Consumer & Industrial employs 5,000 at its Louisville plant. Tourism is a large contributor to the local economy.
The 3rd is Kentucky’s most Democratic district, but John Kerry took only 51 percent of the district’s 2004 presidential vote. The party runs well at the local level, especially downtown, and labor strength runs deep among the blue-collar residents of the city’s South End, despite job losses from industrial decline. Blacks living in the West End also back Democrats. Republicans near the river in the affluent East End, coupled with the growing number of white-collar suburbanites east of downtown, appear to be pulling the district to the right, although a Democrat won the House seat in 2006.
Major Industry
Service, trade, manufacturing, health care
Cities
Louisville Metro, 674,032
notable
The Kentucky Derby, called “the greatest two minutes in sports,” is held at Churchill Downs in south Louisville.
- Demographics (2000 census)
- Population: 674,032
- Under 18: 24%
- Over 65: 14%
- Married: 50.0%
- Non-Hispanic White: 76%
- Black: 19%
- Hispanic: 2%
- Asian: 1%
- Foreign Born: 3.5%
- Language other than English: 5.5%
- Median Household Income: 39,468
- Owner Occupied Housing: 65%
- Income above $200k: 2.2
- Workforce/Education (2000 census)
- White Collar: 62.0%
- Blue Collar: 23.9%
- Services: 14.1%
- Bachelor's Degree: 25%
- Graduate Education: 9.8%
- Civilian Veterans: 69,846
| Year | Election | Candidate | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | general | John Yarmuth (D) | 203,843 | 59.4% |
| Anne Northup (R) | 139,527 | 40.6% | ||
| Edward Martin (LIBERT) | ||||
| 2006 | general | John Yarmuth (D) | 122,489 | 50.6% |
| Anne Northup (R) | 116,568 | 48.2% | ||
| Donna Mancini (LIBERT) | 2,134 | 0.9% | ||
| W. Parker (CNSTP) | 774 | 0.3% | ||
| 2004 | general | Anne Northup (R) | 197,736 | 60.3% |
| Tony Miller (D) | 124,040 | 37.8% | ||
| George Dick (LIBERT) | 6,363 | 1.9% | ||
| 2002 | general | Anne Northup (R) | 118,228 | 51.6% |
| Jack Conway (D) | 110,846 | 48.4% | ||
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | John Kerry: 51% | George W. Bush: 49% | |
| 2000 | Al Gore: 50% | George W. Bush: 48% |
Campaign Finance Details for the 2008 Race
| Filers | Through | Total Receipts | Total Disbursements | Total From PACs | Total From Individuals | Ending Cash | Debts Owed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NORTHUP, ANNE HON. (R) | November 24, 2008 | $1,704,897.00 | $1,704,993.00 | $126,500.00 | $1,269,107.00 | $8,784.00 | |
| ROBERTS, ERWIN (R) | September 30, 2008 | $344,658.00 | $298,601.00 | $338,662.00 | $44,555.00 | $30,713.00 | |
| HORNE, ANDREW J (D) | June 30, 2007 | ||||||
| MOORE, JAMES WALTER (D) | January 31, 2007 | ||||||
| YARMUTH, JOHN A MR (D) | November 24, 2008 | $2,136,063.00 | $1,990,785.00 | $87,500.00 | $1,453,825.00 | $171,325.00 | $132,262.00 |
| THIENEMAN, CHRIS A (R) | June 23, 2008 | $138,294.00 | $138,293.00 | $75,990.00 | |||
