U.S. House, New Hampshire - 1st District
East -- Manchester, Rochester, Dover
Race Forecast: No Clear Favorite
2008:
2006: Shea-Porter (D) 51 percent, Rep. Jeb Bradley (R) 49 percent
Shea-Porter remains highly vulnerable as she heads into a rematch with the challenger she ousted in 2006. Bradley retains strong name identification and support from the Republican-leaning district he represented for two previous terms. Though Bradley was forced into a tough Sept. 9 Republican primary contest, polls showed the race within the margin of error just a few weeks out from Election Day.
Race Information
- Incumbent: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, D
- First Elected: 2006 (1st term)
- Last Elected: 2006 (51.27%)
- Incumbent Status: Running for re-election
- Race Forecast: No Clear Favorite
District Information
Politics in America District Profile
The 1st covers about one-fourth of New Hampshire’s land, mainly in the southeast, yet contains most of its larger communities, including the most populous, Manchester. Many residents of southeastern towns in the 1st, especially Dover, Portsmouth, Hampton and Exeter, commute to Boston.
Manchester, which boasts technology and manufacturing companies and a profitable health care industry, grew slowly in the 1990s, but fears of recession have abated as the city’s economy has diversified. Upper-income Bedford to the southwest and Hooksett to the north are growing rapidly.
The Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, across the state line in Kittery, Maine, employs many district residents and serves as an economic anchor in the eastern part of the district. Portsmouth has lost population since 1990, partly due to the closing of Pease Air Force Base in 1991.
Despite strong GOP roots and a slight Republican lean, the 1st has become increasingly competitive in recent years. Democratic-leaning Strafford County, which includes Durham (home to the University of New Hampshire) and Dover, gives Democrats healthy margins at the polls. Carroll County, in the northern end of the district, thrives primarily on tourism and farming, and the rural areas still barely favor the GOP. Republicans do well in medium- and smaller-size towns, but the GOP no longer reliably dominates population centers such as Manchester, although voters there did oust their Democratic mayor in 2005. George W. Bush narrowly won the 1st’s 2004 presidential vote with 51 percent.
Major Industry
Health care, computer manufacturing
Cities
Manchester, 107,006; Rochester, 28,461; Dover, 26,884; Derry (unincorporated), 22,661
Notable
Robert Frost operated a farm in Derry that is now a state historic site.
- Demographics (2000 census)
- Population: 617,575
- Under 18: 25%
- Over 65: 12%
- Married: 56.7%
- Non-Hispanic White: 95%
- Black: 1%
- Hispanic: 2%
- Asian: 1%
- Foreign Born: 4.4%
- Language other than English: 8.5%
- Median Household Income: 50,135
- Owner Occupied Housing: 69%
- Income above $200k: 2.1
- Workforce/Education (2000 census)
- White Collar: 62.7%
- Blue Collar: 23.9%
- Services: 13.3%
- Bachelor's Degree: 28%
- Graduate Education: 9.6%
- Civilian Veterans: 69,625
| Year | Election | Candidate | Votes | Percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | general | Carol Shea-Porter (D) | 176,442 | 51.8% |
| Jeb Bradley (R) | 156,345 | 45.9% | ||
| Robert Kingsbury (LIBERT) | 8,017 | 2.4% | ||
| 2006 | general | Carol Shea-Porter (D) | 100,691 | 51.3% |
| Jeb Bradley (R) | 95,527 | 48.6% | ||
| 2004 | general | Jeb Bradley (R) | 204,836 | 63.3% |
| Justin Nadeau (D) | 118,226 | 36.6% | ||
| 2002 | general | Jeb Bradley (R) | 128,993 | 58.1% |
| Martha Clark (D) | 85,426 | 38.5% | ||
| Dan Belforti (LIBERT) | 7,387 | 3.3% | ||
| Year | Democrat | Republican | Independent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | John Kerry: 48% | George W. Bush: 51% | |
| 2000 | Al Gore: 46% | George W. Bush: 49% |
Campaign Finance Details for the 2008 Race
| Filers | Through | Total Receipts | Total Disbursements | Total From PACs | Total From Individuals | Ending Cash | Debts Owed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRUCE, ROBERT FARNSWORTH (D) | September 30, 2007 | $100.00 | $28,150.00 | ||||
| BARROWS, WAYNE (R) | September 30, 2007 | $95,435.00 | |||||
| BRADLEY, JOSEPH E. MR. III (R) | November 24, 2008 | $1,376,840.00 | $1,440,623.00 | $167,250.00 | $565,253.00 | $8,212.00 | $330,500.00 |
| SHEA-PORTER, CAROL (D) | November 24, 2008 | $1,542,448.00 | $1,558,613.00 | $141,500.00 | $942,566.00 | $52,549.00 | |
| BEVILL, ROBERT TILLMAN (R) | December 31, 2006 | $7.00 | $4,400.00 | ||||
| CRAIG, JAMES W (D) | December 31, 2007 | $2,075.00 | $2,752.00 | ||||
| STEPHEN, JOHN A (R) | September 30, 2008 | $605,601.00 | $602,970.00 | $3,000.00 | $570,247.00 | $2,630.00 | $18,000.00 |
| FORSYTHE, JAMES RUSSELL (R) | October 1, 2008 | $103,977.00 | $90,820.00 | $100,530.00 | |||
| BEARSE, PETER JAMES (R) | September 30, 2008 | $9,226.00 | $16,525.00 | $4,206.00 | $3,395.00 | $12,000.00 | |
