New Jersey Governor's Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Tossup

Incumbent — Jon Corzine (D); Running for reelection

Democratic incumbent Corzine endured a sharp and untimely drop in his job approval ratings — exacerbated by New Jersey’s economic woes — that consigned him to underdog status through much of his contest with Republican Chris Christie, a former U.S. attorney. But a well-funded media campaign by Corzine and a ineffective approach by Christie eroded the GOP challenger’s lead in the polls. And the emergence of independent candidate Chris Daggett, a former high-ranking environmental policy official in the federal and state governments, has thrown the entire race up for grabs.

CQ Politics on Oct. 19 — two weeks and a day before Election Day — moved its rating on the off-year contest for governor to Tossup from Leans Republican.

This does not mean Corzine has escaped his perilous political situation. His job approval ratings suffered in the midst of a deep national recession that has hit hard at home. New Jersey voters also express concerns about the governor’s handling of issues such as high property taxes.

But the Corzine campaign’s multi-million dollar barrage of television ads has raised questions among voters in New Jersey, typically a solidly Democratic-leaning state,about the substance of Christie’s policy proposals. This in turn enabled the incumbent to close the gap with Christie and even edge narrowly past him in some recent polls.

Corzine appears the beneficiary of the Daggett’s rise as a second alternative to the governor. A well-received showing in the candidates’ first debate and the endorsement he received from the Newark Star Ledger, the state’s most-read newspaper, have helped Daggett’s share in polls rise from single-digit percentages in September to the teens in the past few weeks. More voters who say they are likely to choose Daggett say Christie, not Corzine, would be their second choice.

Corzine is also helped by a long-running Democratic trend in New Jersey voting, which proved sturdy in 2008. Barack Obama carried New Jersey by a wide 15-point margin, marking the fifth time in a row a Democrat won the state for president, while Democrat Frank R. Lautenberg cruised to an easy Senate re-election victory.

But Corzine is unlikely to win a majority of the votes on Election Day, and Republicans believe that the intensity of their party base will combine with a fade in support for third-party contender Daggett and propel Christie to victory.

As the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute predicted in an analysis of its most recent poll, “The New Jersey governor’s race is going down to the wire.”

Race Information

• Incumbent: Jon Corzine, D
• First Elected: 2005 (1st term)
• Incumbent Status: Running for reelection
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Tossup

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
• U.S. House Delegation: 8 Democrats, 5 Republicans

Senators

Frank R. Lautenberg, D

First Elected: 1982 (5th term)

Last Elected: 2008 (56.03%)

Robert Menendez, D

First Elected: 2006 (1st full term)

Last Elected: 2006 (53.37%)

State Offices

State House Control: Democratic

State Senate Control: Democratic