Alaska Governor's Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Likely Republican

Incumbent — Sean Parnell (R); Running for reelection

There was ample speculation that one-term Gov. Palin might not seek re-election in 2010, in the wake of her surprise emergence in 2008 as Republican presidential nominee John McCain’s vice presidential running mate — and in advance of a possible bid for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination.

But few were prepared for Palin’s July 3 announcement that she is not waiting until the end of her term to step aside, but would instead resign as governor before the end of the month.

This left politics watchers hashing over whether she was motivated by a desire to free herself from the responsibilities of office while she tests the national political waters — or wearied of the political and personal controversies she has faced nonstop since she burst on the national scene — or saw the potential for lasting damage as her once-towering homestate job approval ratings tumbled over the past year.

While the impact of the highly unusual resignation on Palin’s future is cloudy, her move clarified the outlook for Alaska’s 2010 race for governor. Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell will move up to governor upon Palin’s resignation, making him the incumbent and the odds-on favorite to claim the 2010 Republican nomination.

Parnell would have foregone this opportunity had he succeeded in his biggest political gamble to date: He had a near-miss in 2008 when he ran a narrowly unsuccessful primary challenge to veteran at-large Republican Rep. Don Young.

But it is unclear, especially given the odd circumstances of Palin’s departure, whether he is necessarily a solid front-runner for the 2010 general election. Parnell appears to face primary competition from state Rep. John Harris. And even though the conservative-leaning state generally favors Republicans in statewide elections, Democrat Ethan Berkowitz could wage a serious bid for the governor’s office.

Berkowitz, a former state House minority leader, ran a competitive House challenge before losing to Young in the 2008 general election. Berkowitz previously was the lieutenant governor nominee on the 2006 Democratic ticket, headed by former Gov. Tony Knowles, that lost to the Palin-Parnell ticket.

But Berkowitz may not be alone in pursuit of the Democratic nomination for governor. State Sen. Hollis S. French, one of Palin’s most outspoken critics, stated his intention to run for Alaska’s top job, filing paperwork on July 1 — two days before Palin’s stunning resignation announcement.

Race Information

• Incumbent: Sean Parnell, R
• First Elected: 2009 (1st)
• Incumbent Status: Running for reelection
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Likely Republican

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 1 Democrat, 1 Republican
• U.S. House Delegation: 1 Republican

Senators

Lisa Murkowski, R

First Elected: 2004 (1st full term)

Last Elected: 2004 (48.58%)

Mark Begich, D

First Elected: 2008 (1st term)

Last Elected: 2008 (47.77%)

State Offices

State House Control: Republican

State Senate Control: Republican