California Governor's Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Incumbent — Arnold Schwarzenegger (R); Term limited; cannot run again

Neither major party has established itself as strongly favored to fill the open seat of term-limited Republican Schwarzenegger. That’s mainly because voters are angry at both the incumbent governor and the Democrats who control the legislature over California’s intractable budget crisis, which has been exacerbated by the national economic downturn’s impact on the nation’s most-populous state.

The Democrats may rate the early edge simply based on the track record of state voters over the past decade and more. Schwarzenegger’s wins — in his controversial 2003 election that accompanied the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and in 2006 — were rare recent successes for the Republicans in the nation’s most populous state.

State Attorney General Jerry Brown is seeking a return to the governor’s office he held from 1975 to 1983 and has emerged as the only contender for the Democratic nomination.

Brown has benefited greatly from the fact that a pair of prominent Democrats who appeared likely to provide him with a tough primary fight took themselves to the sidelines. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom entered the race in April but dropped out in October. Antonio Villaraigosa, re-elected as Los Angeles mayor earlier this year, mulled the race but announced on June 22 that he had decided against running for governor.

Supporters of U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein hope, though, that there is still a chance they can coax her into a run. In the wake of Newsom’s withdrawal from the race, Feinstein told reporters that she would consider a bid if the current crop of candidates fail to propose adequate solutions to deal with the state’s fiscal problems.

On the Republican side is Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO and an adviser to Republican John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, whose potential to self-fund her campaign with millions of dollars has prompted many Republicans to view her as their strongest contender. But the first-time candidate will have to fight for the nomination against another super-wealthy former high tech entrepreneur, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, who has some voter familiarity from his past statewide campaign.

The high-priced competition between Whitman and Poizner left a third candidate, former five-term U.S. Rep. Tom Campbell, as the odd man out. So Campbell – a centrist who ran for the Senate in 2000 as the Republican challenger to Feinstein – decided he’d be better off trying his luck in the race for the seat being defended by Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer, and announced Jan. 14 that he was switched to a Republican Senate primary that already included Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett-Packard, and State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, an activist conservative.

Race Information

• Incumbent: Arnold Schwarzenegger, R
• First Elected: 2003 (1st full term)
• Incumbent Status: Term limited; cannot run again
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Leans Democratic

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
• U.S. House Delegation: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans

Senators

Dianne Feinstein, D

First Elected: 1992 (3rd full term)

Last Elected: 2006 (59.43%)

Barbara Boxer, D

First Elected: 1992 (3rd term)

Last Elected: 2004 (57.71%)

State Offices

State House Control: Democratic

State Senate Control: Democratic