California Governor's Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Incumbent — Arnold Schwarzenegger (R); Term limited; cannot run again

Neither major party has an heir apparent to term-limited Republican Schwarzenegger. The fact that voters are angry at both the incumbent governor and the Democrats who control the legislature over California’s intractable budget crisis makes the 2010 race even more unpredictable.

The Democrats may rate the early edge simply based on the track record of state voters over the past decade and more. Schwarzenegger’s wins — in his controversial 2003 election that accompanied the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis and in 2006 — were rare recent successes for the Republicans in the nation’s most populous state.

Democrats are awaiting a pivotal decision by Sen. Dianne Feinstein on whether she might run for governor, though the betting is she will not. That doesn’t mean there aren’t enough announced and likely candidates. San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom entered the race in April and state Attorney General Jerry Brown, seeking a return to the governor’s office he held from 1975 to 1983, has taken steps towards running. But Antonio Villaraigosa, re-elected as Los Angeles mayor earlier this year, mulled the race but announced on June 22 that he won’t run for governor.

On the Republican side is Meg Whitman, former eBay CEO and an adviser to Republican John McCain’s 2008 presidential campaign, who has set up an exploratory committee that already has millions of dollars in receipts, including a big infusion from her own pockets. Former five-term Rep. Tom Campbell, who challenged Feinstein in the 2000 Senate race, and state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner also have begun preparing for the race.

Race Information

• Incumbent: Arnold Schwarzenegger, R
• First Elected: 2003 (1st full term)
• Incumbent Status: Term limited; cannot run again
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Leans Democratic

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
• U.S. House Delegation: 34 Democrats, 19 Republicans

Senators

Dianne Feinstein, D

First Elected: 1992 (3rd full term)

Last Elected: 2006 (59.43%)

Barbara Boxer, D

First Elected: 1992 (3rd term)

Last Elected: 2004 (57.71%)

State Offices

State House Control: Democratic

State Senate Control: Democratic