Oregon Governor's Race

CQ Politics Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Incumbent — Theodore R. Kulongoski (D); Term limited; cannot run again

Oregon’s open-seat election for governor, to succeed the term-limited Kulongoski, will be the state’s marquee election in 2010. There also is a U.S. Senate race, but Democratic incumbent Ron Wyden appears a prohibitive favorite for re-election in that contest.

After a long history as a hotbed of partisan competition, Oregon appears to have taken a definitive swing to dependably Democratic. Barack Obama’s win for president in 2008 was the sixth in a row for Democrats in Oregon, and both his vote share (57 percent) and margin over Republican opponent John McCain (16 points) were the biggest for a Democrat in the state since Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 landslide.

On the same ballot, Jeff Merkley upset two-term Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, giving the Democrats control of both U.S. Senate seats to go with four of the state’s five U.S. House seats, the governor’s office and control of both state legislative chambers.

Former Gov. John Kitzhaber, who held the office from 1995 to 2003, is seeking to return to the office. Oregon law barred him from seeking a third consecutive term in 2002 but allows any former governor to seek a comeback after sitting out at least one term.

Kitzhaber will have competition in the May Democratic primary. Former Oregon Secretary of State Bill Bradbury, who in 2002 ran an unsuccessful Senate challenge to Smith, is also vying for the Democratic nomination.

Additional Democratic figures have yet to close the door on the governor’s race. Principal among them is veteran U.S. Rep. Peter A. DeFazio, though the passage of time has made it less likely that he’ll forgo another re-election bid in the 4th District for a shot at governor.

Oregon Republicans, who last won the governor’s office in 1982 when Vic Atiyeh was re-election, hang their hopes for winning in 2010 on the fact that their party has been competitive in statewide politics within recent memory. George W. Bush twice lost the state for president by just narrow margins and Kulongoski’s 2002 and 2006 wins for governor were not landslides.

The Republican primary field includes businessman Allen Alley; Bill Sizemore, a well-known anti-tax activist who was the Republican nominee for governor in 1998 but was trounced by Democratic incumbent Kitzhaber; and former state Sen. John Lim.

But well-known figures such as ex-Sen. Smith, U.S. Rep. Greg Walden and state Sen. Jason Atkinson have passed up the governor’s race.

Race Information

• Incumbent: Theodore R. Kulongoski, D
• First Elected: 2002 (2nd term)
• Incumbent Status: Term limited; cannot run again
• CQ Politics Race Rating: Leans Democratic

State Information

• U.S. Senate Delegation: 2 Democrats
• U.S. House Delegation: 4 Democrats, 1 Republican

Senators

Ron Wyden, D

First Elected: 1996 (2nd full term)

Last Elected: 2004 (63.39%)

Jeff Merkley, D

First Elected: 2008 (1st term)

Last Elected: 2008 (48.9%)

State Offices

State House Control: Democratic

State Senate Control: Democratic