CQ HOMELAND SECURITY
Nov. 13, 2008 – 7:37 p.m.
Jihadist Messages to Obama Reflect Their Uncertainty
By Matt Korade, CQ Staff
Among the diplomatic overtures being made to Barack Obama comes this one, from Iraq:
The president-elect should return America to pre-World War II isolationism, leave the region, stop supporting tyrants and refrain from meddling in Muslim affairs, and the United States will be allowed to buy oil at reasonable prices.
Oh, and Mr. President, you should convert to Islam.
That was the message sent by Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, the man purported to be the leader of a nationalistic umbrella jihadist group in Iraq. It may seem humorous, but al-Baghdadi isn’t joking.
Nibras Kazimi, a fellow at the conservative-leaning Hudson Institute, created a blog called talismangate where he analyzes the widely noted communiqué.
Kazimi, who is a native Iraqi, said the message is more conciliatory than others he’s read directed toward President Bush and the McCain campaign.
“It’s not a bouquet of flowers, but it’s certainly striking a new tone,” Kazimi said. “And they have high expectations of Obama, much like the rest of the world.”
Al-Baghdadi’s not alone. Before the election, Abu Yahya al-Libi, another rising figure within the jihadist movement whom some say will take over for Osama bin Laden when that leader retires, is captured, or killed, cursed Bush “and his party,” but did not mention Obama or the Democrats by name.
“The fact that he didn’t in my opinion means that they saw this as an improvement,” said Jarret Brachman, a former counterterrorism analyst for the CIA and founding research director of West Point’s Combating Terrorism Center. “They didn’t want to screw him over by endorsing him.”
Messages like these from al-Baghadadi and al-Libi reflect the shifting sands on which the jihadists find themselves under a new administration, the experts said. From the Taliban to al-Baghdadi’s Islamic State of Iraq, the messages welcome and wag fingers at the president-elect, carrying conflicting statements that show these groups have now found it difficult to figure out the next play.
While official messages are often directed at U.S. and allied leaders, many of the posts on the sites where such statements appear resemble a community forum, “to discuss with each other, this social community that they’ve developed,” said Adam Raisman, a senior analyst at the Site Intelligence Group, which monitors and translates Islamist statements.
“Where it will lead is a question mark because they themselves do knot know what Obama will do once he assumes the presidency.”
Should the jihadists embrace or dismiss, threaten or cajole? Coming from a movement known for its quick, effective dispersal of propaganda, the confusion is in itself a success for the United States, the analysts said.
Jihadist Messages to Obama Reflect Their Uncertainty
Brachman, who now teaches at North Dakota State University and consults for the government, said the messages reflect al Qaeda’s weakness, making it willing to give Obama a honeymoon period in which to assess him.
“My read on al Qaeda today is they’re overstretched and they’re looking for face-saving ways to back off a little bit and recalibrate,” Brachman said. “But they also know that that is going to be a lot harder because Obama will improve the image of the United States, which has been one of their recruiting tools, their hatred for the United States. So they have to recalibrate the messaging strategy.”
That strategy has taken some surprising turns. While it is true that many jihadists accept the president-elect, it is not because his father was a Kenyan and Muslim nor because Obama’s middle name is Hussein, but because he is of African-American descent, Brachman said.
Osama bin Laden’s deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, repeatedly mention civil rights leader Malcolm X and the historic oppression of blacks and native-Americans by whites in order to raise the prospect of racial hostility and riots. Under this race-baiting logic, oppression, including the subjugation of Muslims, is part of the white agenda, said Brachman. “This fits into a long pattern over the years of trying to draw wedge issues within the United States.”
But since the election, the messages posted online show the jihadists perhaps don’t know how to play the race card. Should they try to denigrate Obama’s heritage or make an attempt to exploit it?
“They’re all over the board right now,” Brachman said.
Beyond the Jihad
Judging by a review of sites within the United States, there is an increased racial tension in the United States since the election, said Mark Potok, who monitors domestic hate groups for the Southern Poverty Law Center, a civil rights advocacy group in Montgomery, Ala.
But, according to the focus of Potok’s expertise, the tension is typically bubbling under the surface among a small minority of xenophobic, anti-immigration white supremacists.
“During the campaign, as far back as July, hate groups were already talking about the idea that there might be a silver lining in what they saw as the very, very dark cloud of a possible Obama victory,” Potok said. He said he believes recruitment in such groups is up, although it is difficult to tell exactly how much.
Darrin Blackford, a spokesman for the U.S. Secret Service, said the agency is paying attention to all groups, “not just those claiming to be jihadists, but any group that threatens our protectees or has the potential to impact our protective mission.”
In the world of jihad, there is more to the message than simple anti-American propaganda aimed at recruitment. The communiqués also reveal the personal ambitions of the leaders and how closely they observe American politics.
Like others, al-Baghdadi calls for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq and also for the release of enemy combatants from prisons in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba — leaving the so-called Islamic State of Iraq leader and other jihadists positioned to take credit for ultimately “backing down,” Kazimi said.
Jihadist Messages to Obama Reflect Their Uncertainty
Regaining credibility is critical for the Islamic State of Iraq, whose 2006 move to make Iraq the center of a caliphate that would stretch across the Muslim world drew criticisms from supporters who said the group had acted prematurely. As it turned out, it did; the declaration, in Kazimi’s view, contributed to the Sunni awakening in al Anbar Province, which led to al Qaeda’s eventual ouster from the Baathist stronghold.
One of those critics was Kuwaiti Cleric Hamid al-Ali, who is revered and reviled among jihadists for the caliphate criticism. In a recent statement, al-Ali said the election was not only a symbol of America’s willingness to change course but also a model for the Islamists to follow.
After all, Obama managed to oust Bush and the Republicans despite his “race, color, or roots,” in the same way the jihadists want to oust “apostate” secular Arab regimes.
But it’s important to remember jihadist propaganda never lets facts get in the way of a message, said a Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee aide. “Whatever happened on Nov 4, they’d twist the result to their narrative.”
A sampling of the messages:
• Taliban
• Political Council of the Iraqi Resistance
Matt Korade can be reached at mkorade@cq.com.
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