CQ HOMELAND SECURITY
Dec. 10, 2008 – 8:14 p.m.
Sherman, Hoekstra Size Up Obama’s Options on Iran
By Matt Korade, CQ Staff
President-elect Barack Obama will have to get serious about squeezing Iran’s economy if he wants to steer that country away from its pursuit of nuclear enrichment, two key House members said Wednesday.
That means finding support for much tougher multinational economic sanctions, including from an increasingly hostile Russia.
“We have a lot of tools in our toolbox to put economic and diplomatic pressure on them, but those tools have remained in our toolbox,” said Rep. Brad Sherman , D-Calif., chairman of the Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade. “We have used roughly 1 percent of what’s available to us.”
Meanwhile, he contends, America could do things at home to pressure the Iranian government to curtail its nuclear ambitions. Among the actions Obama could take are:
• Prohibiting exports of aircraft parts to Iran, which would ground their commercial and military aircraft.
• Stopping U.S. oil companies from allowing their overseas subsidiaries from doing business with Iran.
• Enforcing the Iran Sanctions Act (PL 104-172) to prevent investments by foreign oil companies in the Iran oil sector.
• Demanding the World Bank stop disbursing funds to Iran in the form of concessionary loans that have already been approved over token U.S. opposition.
• Denying nuclear cooperative agreements to countries that provide nuclear technology to Iran.
• Putting economic pressure on companies building liquefied natural gas plants in Iran.
• Going after trans-shipments of sensitive technology to Iran.
One of the easiest things to do would be to enforce the Iran Sanctions Act, Sherman said, which helped to dismantle Libya’s WMD program when the law applied to that country.
The most obvious pressure point, he said, is Iran’s need to import much of its refined petroleum. Declining oil prices are also causing economic difficulties, but this is somewhat counterbalanced by the fact that the economic recession makes other countries more reluctant to forego their own revenues from exports to Iran.
Without actions like the above, Sherman said, Iran will probably be able to enrich uranium, for peaceful energy uses or for a nuclear weapon, within the next five years.
“It is not true that we have done all that can be done and failed,” he said.
Peter Hoekstra of Michigan, ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, says Iran’s conditions for serious talks — U.S. withdrawal of military forces from Iraq and an end to support for Israel — are impossible for the United States to concede.
“It’s clear that we need to keep the pressure on economically, politically and always have the option of a military potential if we are expecting to have any kind of results from our engagement or activities on Iran,” Hoekstra said.
Sherman suggested that a pre-emptive military strike, either by the United States or Israel, was unlikely, given the American public’s wariness in the wake of Iraq.
Hoekstra said the cooperation of the international community would be critical.
“Right now, you’ve just got too many people saying we don’t see the problem, we’re not going to be part of the solution, and economic sanctions used by a few means they’re not used at all and are not effective,” he said.
Intelligence That Works
Hoekstra said part of the problem in confronting Iran is the lack of information on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, a shortfall he blamed on poor U.S. intelligence.
In the 1990s, cuts in human intelligence significantly harmed collection, something the government has tried to rectify and doesn’t want to repeat, Hoekstra said. Allies don’t want to see that repeated under Obama’s administration.
In addition, he said, the nation’s intelligence community remains highly bureaucratic and needs streamlining. Passage of intelligence overhaul legislation (PL 104-458) in 2004, which created the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, simply added another layer of bureaucracy without doing enough to prioritize intelligence activities, Hoekstra said.
“It’s been a disappointment,” he said.
However, Obama might want to keep his hands off intelligence programs that are effective at protecting Americans, even if they are criticized by Democrats, he said.
“The security team that Barack Obama is putting together clearly is starting to recognize that reality has a way of pushing out campaign rhetoric,” Hoekstra said.
On day one, Obama can stop the terrorist surveillance program, stop financial tracking, close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay, prohibit rough interrogation methods, “but I really believe if he goes through that process and contemplates those decisions, he’s going to reach the stark conclusion that, ‘wow, these things actually work, they actually have enabled President Bush to keep America safe, that’s now my responsibility . . . and I better be careful before I decide to terminate those programs.’ ”
At the very least, the president-elect will have to match these programs’ successes, Hoekstra said.
Matt Korade can be reached at mkorade@cq.com.
Comments
This is an excellent contribution. There is pending before Congress an action which will also contribute to the effort to pressure Iran, about which the next President should also act. Thirty one states still have taken no action to divest from Iran. One of the reasons for failing to join the others is the fear that divestment would expose them to the charge of "interference in the role of the federal government to conduct foreign affairs." The bill pending and already passed by the House would give them safe harbor from this charge if they undertake divestment.
Brad Sherman doesn't quite get it. The problem with putting the economic squeeze isn't our nation's unwillingness. The problem is Europe, Russia, China, etc.... They have no desire to block trade with Iran. Germany specifically, speaks out of both sides of its mouth. They call for talks that fail and refuse to step up any attempt to block trade from their own nation. Russia and China aren't on board at all. France absolutely refuses to stop their national oil company from doing business with Iran. Truly, there isn't a better time to clamp down on Iran than now that crude is so low. But Europe is absolutely not on board stopping trade in any meaningful way. This has been the problem. Everyone knows it but Brad Sherman. When are we going to get congressmen that don't suffer from learning disabilities.
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