By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Republicans eying the political map for the 2008 national House campaign agree that the race in Florida’s GOP-leaning 16th District presents one of their strongest opportunities for a partisan pickup — if not their very best. Freshman Democratic Rep. Tim Mahoney has been targeted by Republicans as a “fluke” winner ever since a scandal caused the sudden and shocking downfall of his predecessor, Republican Mark Foley, just weeks before Election Day 2006.

Republicans note that Mahoney managed to win that year’s contest by just a 2 percentage-point margin, even though the revelations of Foley’s inappropriate conduct toward underage male pages were still fresh in voters’ minds ­— and his name was still on the November ballot, even though the votes cast on the Republican line were credited to the replacement nominee, then-state Rep. Joe Negron.

The race to dislodge Mahoney — currently rated by CQ Politics as No Clear Favorite, or tossup — will be anything but a walkover for the Republicans. Though the Foley scandal was the catalyst for the Democrat’s victory, Mahoney, the wealthy owner of an investment banking company, likely would not have been in a position to win had he not defied his longshot status by raising large sums of money (his receipts for the total campaign came to $2.8 million) and campaigning vigorously as a centrist Democrat.

Still, the knowledge that the national and state Republican organizations have the south-central Florida district high up on their target lists for 2008, and the recognition of a strong Republican voting base in a district that favored President Bush by a 10 percentage-point margin over Democratic challenger John Kerry in 2004, have already drawn in three contenders for the Republican nomination: Tom Rooney a lawyer and Army veteran who is of the Rooney family that owns the Pittsburgh Steelers football team; state Rep. Gayle Harrell; and Hal Valeche, a Palm Beach Gardens City Councilman and former Navy pilot.

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), which orchestrates the party’s national House campaigns, rarely endorses a single candidate in a competitive primary. But spokesman Ken Spain told CQ Politics that the committee would be “happy” with any of the potential nominees. “All three candidates are of the highest caliber,” Spain said.

He added, “It’s a Republican-leaning seat in a presidential election year, and quite frankly, Tim Mahoney benefited from some extraordinary circumstances” in 2006.

Republicans also argue that Mahoney diminished his own chances of re-election with a headline-grabbing comment in May.

“Very candidly, this isn’t the greatest job I’ve had,” Mahoney told The Hill, a newspaper that reports on Congress. The quote was picked up by the news media in his Florida district. It then was publicized by Republicans on the national and state levels, including his would-be competitors for the 2008 race, who have used it to label Mahoney as someone who does not consider it an “honor” to serve in Congress.

Republicans have also sought to chip away at Mahoney’s moderate image by characterizing him as a liberal who votes lockstep with House Democratic leadership.

The NRCC sent out the first of a series of releases on Mahoney’s record Nov. 13 in which they faulted him for voting with Democrats in support of a budget that, according to the Republicans’ claim, would “pave the way for one of the largest tax hikes in American history.” They also contend he has voted for every Democratic-sponsored spending bill during his partial first-year as a House member.

But Democrats counter that Mahoney is forging a moderate path that will enable him to overcome the obstacles he faces in his bid for a second term.

“Congressman Mahoney’s voting in the middle, where most of America is,” said Charles Halloran, a Mahoney campaign spokesman. “They want common sense solutions, not partisan rhetoric.”

Mahoney aligned with his party on 84 percent of House votes this year on which most Democratic members opposed most Republicans, according to a Congressional Quarterly “party unity” study of votes conducted through Nov. 9. Mahoney’s score was the 15th lowest among House Democrats, for whom the median party unity score was 97 percent.

Halloran noted that 39 Republicans voted in favor of a bill co-sponsored by Mahoney, labeled The Homeowner’s Defense Act, that is designed to help alleviate insurance burdens on homeowners. The measure passed the House, 258-155, on Nov. 8.

Democrats installed Mahoney and another freshman from Florida, Ron Klein of the 22nd District, as the leaders on this bill, which focuses on a major issue in their home state.

Mahoney’s camp is also touting an award he received this week from commissioners in Martin County, partially located in the 16th District, for assisting the county in obtaining reimbursements from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) for cleanup of past hurricane damage. He was also praised for his support of Everglades restoration.

While Mahoney continues to focus on his legislative agenda, he again is exhibiting the fundraising muscle he showed in his political debut. Mahoney raised more than $1.3 million through Sept. 30, while the three Republican contenders reported $1 million in receipts — combined. Rooney’s $429,000 was the biggest money number in the Republican field.

Democrats also see a benefit to Mahoney in Florida’s late (Aug. 26) primary date. While Mahoney has no primary challenger and is not expected to draw one, Republicans will have to devote resources to a primary that will be competitive and, Democrats hope, bruising.

“As the three Republican challengers attack each other in a bloody primary for the next nine months, Congressman Mahoney will continue to build on his proven record of bipartisan success,” Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said in a statement to CQ Politics.