CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Feb. 10, 2008 – 10:25 p.m.
Obama Has Super Sequel Amid Clinton Campaign Shakeup
By Greg Giroux and Bob Benenson, CQ Staff
It would be an understatement to say that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama got the better of this weekend’s presidential voting events, the first after his virtual draw with New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in last week’s “Super Tuesday” spree of Democratic primaries and caucuses. His easy wins in the Louisiana primary and caucuses held in the states of Washington, Nebraska and Maine have put him on a powerful roll heading into this Tuesday’s “Chesapeake Primary” events in Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia.
This left the Clinton campaign playing down the significance of these near-term events and pointing to March 4, the date on which primaries are scheduled in populous Texas and Ohio, as the pivotal moment when the former first lady will turn the campaign definitively in her favor.
But efforts by the Clinton camp to brush off this weekend’s setbacks were complicated by the resignation, revealed Sunday afternoon, of campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle and her replacement by Maggie Williams, who like Doyle is a longtime Clinton aide.
Efforts were made to put this development in the most positive light. Campaign officials said Solis initiated the move and that she was not asked or told to step down by the candidate. Clinton, in a written statement, said, “Patti Solis Doyle has done an extraordinary job in getting us to this point — within reach of the nomination — and I am enormously grateful for her friendship and her outstanding work.”
Doyle, who will assume the role of senior campaign adviser, told the campaign staff in a memo, “I have been proud to manage this campaign, and prouder still to call Hillary my friend for more than 16 years. I know that she will make a great president.”
Still, this campaign shakeup occurred at the end of a week in which it became clear that Clinton — regarded by many as the prohibitive favorite for the Democratic nomination before the campaign got under way — faces a tough, lengthy and uncertain battle with Obama. And it comes amid questioning of a Clinton campaign strategy that focused overwhelmingly on winning primaries in populous and delegate-rich states, allowing Obama to out-campaign and out-organize Clinton in a series of states holding caucuses rather than primary elections.
The failure of that strategy to deliver a big delegate lead and campaign momentum to Clinton is evident in the results so far. While Clinton has held the advantage in primaries, including the much-watched contests in New Hampshire, California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, Obama now has won clear victories in 10 of the 12 caucus states so far and was highly competitive in the other two contests.
Clinton’s campaign, in fact, had tried to shrug off Saturday’s results, stating that Obama was expected to win all three contests that day and had expended more resources in them than Clinton.
The charismatic Obama has the stronger activist constituency, the kind of voters who often have a powerful impact on the outcomes of caucuses, which generally have much lower turnouts than primaries.
And the one place that held a primary on Saturday, Louisiana, is a Deep South state in which African-Americans are roughly a third of the population. That made it friendly turf for Obama, whose dominance among black voters in his bid to become the nation’s first black president also helped him win earlier primaries in the Southern states of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina, and has helped make him the favorite for the contests upcoming Tuesday in the District of Columbia (where blacks are in the majority) and in Maryland and Virginia, which have sizable black constituencies.
Yet even if predictable, Obama’s victories in the three contests Saturday and in Maine on Sunday were hefty to ignore.
In Nebraska, Obama defeated Clinton in each of the state’s three congressional districts. He rolled up more than three-fourths of the vote in Nebraska’s 2nd District, which includes Omaha, the state’s biggest city.
In Washington, Obama topped Clinton by more than a 2-to-1 ratio. He had the backing of Gov. Christine Gregoire , who endorsed Obama on Friday, while Sens. Patty Murray and Maria Cantwell supported Clinton.
Obama led Clinton in Louisiana by 57 percent to 36 percent, with all precincts reporting. Exit polls showed Obama winning about 90 percent of the African-American vote, which was about half of the Democratic electorate, offsetting Clinton’s 60 percent showing among the state’s white Democratic voters.
Obama had a huge lead in Orleans Parish, which is coterminous with most of the city of New Orleans. He also led Clinton handily in Caddo Parish, which includes Shreveport in the Louisiana’s northwestern corner, and in East Baton Rouge Parish, which includes the state capital of Baton Rouge and which cast more votes in the Louisiana Democratic primary than any other parish. (Parishes are Louisiana’s equivalent of counties).
Clinton did well in some predominantly white parishes in southwestern and north-central Louisiana and also narrowly defeated Obama in St. Tammany Parish near New Orleans.
And in Maine — the obverse of Louisiana, with a population in which 1 percent of the residents are black — Obama earned 58.6 percent of the delegates to the upcoming state convention to 41.4 percent for Clinton.
Continuing a pattern seen in most of the parties’ presidential contests so far this year, turnout was substantially higher on the Democratic side than on the Republican side.
Maine Democratic officials say turnout for their caucuses was exceptionally high. The number of participants far surpassed the caucus record of 17,000 voters set in 2004, according to Arden Manning, executive director of the Maine Democratic Party. Nearly 39,000 votes had been recorded with most precincts reporting, and Portland, the state’s biggest city, had yet to check in.
The Maine Republican caucuses, held Feb. 1-3, drew just about 5,500 participants — a figure narrowly exceeded in the Democratic contest by absentee ballots alone. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won the Maine GOP event with 52 percent of the vote, but effectively ended his campaign Thursday after failing to score the big Super Tuesday wins he needed to stay in competition with front-running Republican Arizona Sen. John McCain .
A similar phenomenon, on an even larger scale, was true in the Louisiana primary held Saturday.
In the complete but unofficial returns, 384,348 Democrats and 161,319 Republicans had voted in the Louisiana primary. Obama’s 220,588 easily exceeded all the votes for the Republican candidates combined.
Obama, throughout a weekend of campaign events in Maine, Virginia and Maryland, maintained his overriding theme that he is best capable of bringing about political change after years of partisan rancor in the nation’s capital. “I think it’s very hard for Sen. Clinton to break out of the politics of the past 15 years,” Obama said Sunday at a rally in Alexandria, Va., according to the Associated Press. Obama pegged his time frame to 1993, when Clinton’s husband, President Bill Clinton, first took office.
Obama, who often talks about reaching across party lines to get things done, also was quoted saying, “I have the ability to bring people together.” And Obama brought up the issue of electability, stating, “I think I can beat John McCain more effectively.” A series of recent polls showed Obama running stronger than Clinton against the Arizona senator, who emerged from Super Tuesday as the strong front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination.
CQ Politics’ Rachel Kapochunas and Jessica Benton Cooney assisted in this report.




Comments
It is so encouraging that Barack is defying the odds and beating Clinton thus far. I'm concerned that they will pull some more dirty tricks to discredit and get Barack eliminated from contention. The American people deserve a person with strong leadership qualities, a person they can trust and respect. Clinton is not that person.
I am not an Obama or a Clinton supporter BUT I am a realist and the pre-stating the outcomes of any state vote in the unudual election seems very a very dangerous road to follow for either candidate. In the past Obama has gotten a bit "cocky" after his big wins and the next results were big losses. Clinton is a little more reserved in most cases. I guess it comes with age and experience. I only caution all to keep a cool head and remember the old saying: "It Ain't over Til the Fat Ladt Sings"! RightWingDog
We don't need any more panderers to illegal foreign nationals, placing citizens in second place. Mexico First? McCain has embraced a Vicente Fox aide as his own By Mark Krikorian National Review Online, January 28, 2008 http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YmI4OGJhMjE2Y2ZkYzU5ODNiNGQ3ZTE1MjJiY2EwZTg= EXCERPT: The contempt for American citizenship that McCain has shown by naming this political bigamist to a post in his campaign isn't even the whole problem. One might also ask how McCain could even consult with a person of such extreme views, let alone name him Hispanic outreach director. McCain's support for amnesty and accelerated mass immigration is bad enough, but you can, at least in theory, be for those things and still support firm borders and patriotic assimilation. But McCain's Hispanic outreach director is a man who has spent years opposing the very legitimacy of America's borders and Americanization in the most public way possible. The man has been on every TV-news show in creation rejecting as passé the very idea of sovereign borders and patriotic assimilation into the American mainstream.
Bottom Line: It looks like you got some vote fraud hankypanky, and selling of votes going on in the democratic caucuses. Obama seems to be doing disproportionately well in the caucuses where it is easier to commit vote fraud, and sell votes. Obama has not been doing as well in the non caucus primary's where you can't cheat the vote as easily. I smell a pole cat. I smell the Karl Rove vote fraud machine at work. This looks like past presidential elections where most voters leaving the poles said they voted for the other guy. But Bush still won. No wonder Obama thinks the republicans have some good ideas. Apparently a lot of republicans are voting for Obama in the democratic caucuses. The insurance companies, and medical industry that have been ripping you off, and killing you are determined to keep you, the American people from having good universal health care. So it seems they are supporting Obama. Along with the republican vote fraud machine. This looks like a great story for a team of aggressive investigative reporters. Or maybe some good documentary film makers like Michael Moore, or Oliver Stone. If I were the Clinton's, I would focus like a laser bean on what has been going on in the democratic caucuses. No wonder the Republicans like Obama so much. Looks like he's their man in the democratic caucuses. I'm absolutely convinced now that Hillary Clinton is your best choice for good universal health care coverage. And HR 676 (Medicare For All). "Single payer, Tax Supported, Not For Profit, True Universal Health Care" free for all as a right. Like every other developed country in the world has. See: http://www.house.gov/conyers/news_hr676.htm "HR 676: For church goers: less money to insur. companies and more to the church- lots more. Srs on Medicare: save way over $100/wk. Because no more medigap, long term care & dental insur. needed. No more drug bills." They really think you are all stupid, inattentive cash cows... It may be time to bring back Bad Bill.
First let me say thanks for the thorough presentation by Greg Giroux, Bob Benenson, Rachel Kapochunas and Jessica Benton Cooney of the voting returns February 9 and 10. You reported the outcomes and allowed me the reader to analyze the outcome and draw my own conclusions. My conclusion Candidate Barack Obama is the People's Candidate. He has managed to stay focus in spite of the very questionable, desperate and telling tactics used so far by Candidate Clinton's campaign. Unfortunately, as the wins and momentum for Candidate Obama becomes more evident, I feel we will see more desperate and even outrageous acts committed by Candidate Clinton's campaign. . Lastly, I hope you will continue to post the results – all the results. Its a good thing.
Thank you for a very objective view of the current primary race. Good reporting. However, I do question one statement you made: "While Clinton has held the advantage in primaries, including the much-watched contests in New Hampshire, California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts." Up until a week before the election Clinton was projected to win NH by 9-10 points, in fact she squeaked out a narrow victory of 2-3 points. A bit of a stretch to claim this as "held the advantage." And the Clinton average victory in those five states you single out? 11 points. There are NO states where Clinton has generated the 2:1 victories Obama is racking up. Well, there is one little-mentioned race Clinton won by an incredible 15 point spread. 55 percent of the voters chose her over the 40 percent who voted "none of the above." Yes, folks, Hillary managed to get a 15 point victory in a race with no one else running.
To explain the Maine results (and those of Iowa, Nebraska, etc), Bill and Hill have publicly said: 1. caucuses are undemocratic as they attract chiefly activists. 2. caucuses pull in small numbers of voters compared to primaries 3. working class Americans cannot caucus because they work, natch.... SO, caucus states should not count. Unlike Florida and Michigan, which were democratic enough to vote for Hillary.
The republican pary has won again. Obama has had so much coverage while Clinon has has none. It is interesing to see how and why Obama has been able to rases so much money. It appears that he is financed substantialy by the republicans, who call themselves independents. No doubt he is winning in RED states that have cacuass and off cause in states that have huge African American populations (thanks to the media coverage). The republican media CNN,FOX,MSNBC. They tried to give him momentem in IOWA a very RED state. Much to their suprise she bounced back. Looks like they are trying to drown in November where they know her chances of winning are slim, cause of independent voters who will vote republican in November. Even though Obama and Clinton are in a tie for superdelegates they are predicting his victory. Will see if it works out. I know Obama wont be the President cause Maccain will carry he big states, red states and the white middle class America who is donating to Obama. So congrats! to the republicans you know what the weekness are of the Democrates.
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