CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
May 1, 2008 – 7:23 p.m.
Obama Struggling to Win Support Among Working Class Whites
A series of national and state polls this week presented differing snapshots of how Barack Obama is faring nationally, in swing states that have been key in general elections and in upcoming Democratic primaries. But one common denominator appears to be the challenge he faces among white voters, particularly working class white voters.
Obama has clearly sustained damage among this group after a month in which much of the campaign news was dominated by the controversy over Obama’s former pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and his “bitter” reference about small town Americans who had been suffering economically.
In a new national Pew Research Center poll conducted April 23-27, Hillary Rodham Clinton led Obama among white voters in April 54 percent to 38 percent, compared to a 44 percent tie with Obama in March.
Among whites with educations of high school or less, she led Obama 65 percent to 25 percent, a gain of 15 points over March. Among whites earning less than $50,000 a year, she led 58 percent to 34 percent, a jump of 11 points compared to a month earlier.
Pew rated the favorability of each candidate by several criteria. Obama is still viewed favorably on most counts, but his biggest decline came when voters were asked if he was “down to earth,” a measure by which he fell 9 points since March to 73 percent.
(If Obama’s challenge has been doubts among white voters about him, Clinton’s has been her consistent negative marks in polls when it comes to the “honesty and trustworthiness” question. When voters were asked by Pew to rate Clinton’s honesty, her mark fell from 65 percent in March to 57 percent in April. Thirty-five percent called her phony in April compared to 29 percent in March.)
The finding on white voters in the Pew survey was mirrored in another poll today of three states that are key swing states in general elections: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted April 23-29 said Clinton ran better than Obama in general election-match-ups against John McCain in those states thanks to her stronger base of support among white working class voters:
• Florida: Clinton led McCain 49 percent to 41 percent while McCain edged Obama 44 percent to 43 percent. The margin of error was 2.6 percent. Clinton tied McCain among white working class voters at 45 percent each, while McCain beat Obama in this group 51 percent to 34 percent.
• Ohio: Clinton led McCain 48 percent to 38 percent, while McCain was ahead of Obama by 43 percent to 42 percent. The margin of error was 2.9 percent. Clinton led McCain among white working class voters 46 percent to 40 percent while McCain led Obama 54 percent to 34 percent.
• Pennsylvania: Clinton led McCain 51 percent to 37 percent and Obama bested him 47 percent to 38 percent. The margin of error was 2.5 percent. Clinton led McCain among white working class voters 48 percent to 40 percent while McCain led Obama 45 percent to 38 percent.
Quinnipiac’s Peter Brown said, “There is no indication that Obama’s problems with white working class Democrats in the Ohio and Pennsylvania primaries have gone away,” and added: “If the superdelegates are looking at electability, these results could be a shot in the arm for Sen. Clinton . . . No one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying two of these three swing states.”
Three national polls released Wednesday all had at least some elements that pointed to Obama’s problem.
Obama Struggling to Win Support Among Working Class Whites
A CBS News/New York Times poll of Democratic primary voters found blue collar workers supported Clinton 61 percent to 23 percent over Obama. The poll was conducted April 25-29.
And an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll that asked a series of questions to ferret out “major concerns” voters had about the candidates, and then ranked them in percentage order, said 34 percent said Obama’s “bitter” episode showed him out of touch with small town America and 32 percent worried about Obama’s values because of his associations with Rev. Wright and William Ayers, a long-ago member of the radical “Weather Underground.” (The highest voter “concerns” percentage registered was the 43 percent who said they believed that McCain would just carry on the Bush agenda if elected). This poll was conducted April 25-28.
The impact of the Wright controversy was highlighted in a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll conducted April 28-29.
Seventy percent of all voters in the Fox survey said the Wright story had damaged Obama’s campaign, and two-thirds or more of voters of all political persuasions subscribed to that view.
Forty-five percent of all voters said they cared a great deal or somewhat about Obama’s association with Wright, with 62 percent of Republicans and 40 percent of independents in that camp, and 36 percent of Democrats holding that view. Forty-four percent of all voters said the association would make them less likely to vote for Obama. Along partisan lines, 36 percent of Democrats said that, 59 percent of Republicans and 39 percent of independents.
A CNN Opinion/Dynamics poll released later Thursday painted a different picture of the Wright effect. The poll, conducted April 28-30, said that while “most Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of Wright, only 19 percent say Wright’s statements have made them less favorable to Obama. More than two thirds say they’ve had no effect at all.”
To Keep up with all the latest polls, visit CQ Politics Poll Tracker




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