High Turnout Produces Expected Results in Other North Carolina Races

CQ Politics rates the general election contest for governor as Leans Democratic.

The Democratic Senate primary was hardly a contest, as Hagan racked up 60 percent of the vote in a five-candidate race with 98 percent of precincts reporting. Businessman Jim Neal had been considered Hagan’s strongest opponent, but he ended up pulling only 18 percent of the vote.

“This primary has allowed me to meet North Carolinians and begin a longer conversation with them about what they feel needs to be done to fix Washington, I’m proud that they have chosen me to take on Elizabeth Dole ,” Kay said in a statement. “My campaign’s strategy has always been to run this race to ultimately defeat Elizabeth Dole , and I’m proud that we are one step closer while having kept the campaign clean and respectful of other Democrats in the process.”

Hagan nonetheless enters the general election campaign as an underdog. Democratic strategists argue that Dole may be vulnerable because of her support for many Bush administration policies, including those pertaining to the Iraq war. Party officials were disappointed, though, when their dream challenger, Easley, declined to run, saying he lacked a desire to serve in Congress.

Dole has significant strengths, including near-universal name recognition in her home state. She has strong name identification as the incumbent and as a longtime figure on the Washington political scene whose husband, former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, was the 1996 Republican presidential nominee. Dole breezed to renomination with 90 percent over little-known Republican primary foe Pete Di Lauro. She also enters the general election campaign with a strong fundraising lead in the race over Hagan.

CQ Politics rates the race as Republican Favored.

House incumbent Jones drew a stiff primary challenge this year because he angered some fellow Republicans in eastern North Carolina’s strongly conservative-leaning 3rd District. Jones’ Iraq stance was the major irritant to his critics: The representative of the district that includes the massive Camp Lejeune Marine Corps base, Jones initially supported Bush’s decision in 2003 to launch military operations in Iraq, but turned against the war by 2005.

McLaughlin told CQ Politics just before Tuesday’s primary, “It’s about the future of the Republican Party in the 3rd District. And if he wins it’s virtually the end of the party.” Yet Jones proved to have a significant reservoir of party support, bolstered by his family’s long heritage in the region. Jones, a former Democrat, switched to the Republicans and won in 1994, taking the seat that his late father, conservative Democrat Walter B. Jones Sr., had held for more than 26 years (1966-92).

Having survived the primary challenge, Jones’ bid for an eighth term looks secure in a district that gave Bush 68 percent in 2004. CQ Politics [@url@rates the race@http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=district-NC-03] Safe Republican.

In the 11th District, freshman Democrat Heath Shuler — who joined the big House Class of 2006 by unseating eight-term Republican Rep. Charles H. Taylor — will face Asheville City Councilman Carl Mumpower. Mumpower took 48 percent of the Republican primary vote to 42 percent for Henderson County Republican Party Chairman Spence Campbell and 10 percent for Macon County lawyer John C. Armor.

The district in western North Carolina leans Republican and GOP strategists planned to stage a strong effort to unseat Shuler. But their recruiting efforts foundered, including a rebuffed effort to nudge Taylor into pursuing a rematch.

Mumpower’s primary win came despite the face he raised just over one-tenth as much money as Campbell. According to the candidates’ pre-primary campaign finance reports, which cover through April 16, Mumpower raised $28,000 to $217,000 for Campbell.

Mumpower holds a doctorate in clinical psychology and campaigned as a “true conservative voice” for the district.