By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

Democratic and Republican top party officials may be more focused on Mississippi tonight than on the West Virginia presidential primary. After all, the primary’s outcome is already predicted, while the outcome of the Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District special election is much less certain.

If Travis W. Childers , a Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, beats Republican Greg Davis, mayor of Southaven, wins Tuesday’s election, he would be the third Democrat in recent weeks to take over a Republican-held seat. Democrat Bill Foster , a scientist and businessman, won Illinois’ 14th District seat on March 8. The seat was formerly represented by Republican J. Dennis Hastert, Speaker of the House. On May 3, Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux won a Republican-held seat in Lousiana’s 6th District.

Democrats argue that dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, high gas prices and other policies tied to President Bush and the national party are contributing to Democratic strength in these districts. They are quick to paint their special election wins as indicative of a national trend that favors their party.

But Davis campaign manager Ted Prill said Monday that this race is no bellwether and that the only thing this race has in common with the previous two contests is that they are special elections.

Prill said that despite the national attention involved in Mississippi’s 1st, “I don’t think anything could be farther off base” than casting the race as part of a national trend. Prill said Davis is a high caliber candidate who is running in a race that has not been “solely dependent” on third party involvement to communicate their messages, unlike the other races.

Like the other two pickup seats, some past election results in the Mississippi district point to high Republican support. Republican Rep. Roger Wicker received 66 percent of the vote there in 2006, and 1st district voters gave 62 percent to President Bush in 2004. Wicker left the seat to fill the Senate seat of Trent Lott, who resigned in December.

But Childers, who casts himself as a conservative, has demonstrated Democratic potential in the district and given Republicans a run for their money. He placed first in the April 22 special election, just short of a majority necessary to avoid Tuesday’s runoff. Childers has highlighted high gas prices, his pledge not to sign new trade deals and education, among other issues on the campaign trail.

CQ Politics rates the race No Clear Favorite.

The national parties have greatly contributed to the race in hopes of swaying voters. The National Republican Congressional Committee spent over $1 million in independent expenditures on the race from April 10 to May 9, according to filed reports available through the Federal Election Commission Monday, despite the party’s campaign cash disadvantage over their Democratic counterpart. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent nearly $2 million from April 15 to May 10.

National figures also have gotten in on the action. Vice President Dick Cheney appeared Friday on Paul Gallow’s Mississippi radio show to talk about the election and headlined a “Get Out the Vote” rally Monday for Davis, which Prill said will help remind voters to get out and vote in a election that is expected to draw low turnout.

Childers used Cheney’s appearance Monday as an opportunity to draw attention to one of his key campaign issues.

“Greg Davis votes to raise taxes on oil, takes thousands from Big Oil companies and today brings Big Oil’s best friend, Dick Cheney , to North Mississippi,” Childers said in a written statement Monday.

Republicans also say the Cheney visit will reinforce the contrast between their party’s leaders and Democratic liberals.