CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
May 16, 2008 – 10:32 p.m.
Nevada Congressional Races Firmed Up
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
With two of Nevada’s three congressional districts facing competitive races in the fall, the contest for each drew many hopefuls who filed to run for the Aug. 12 primary by Friday’s deadline. But even with all the competition, the likely Democratic and Republican candidates appear set for the general election.
3rd District:
Eleven candidates have filed in the 3rd District in the Las Vegas suburbs, although Republicans and Democrats each have their hand-picked candidates for the race. Democrats are again targeting three-term Republican Rep. Jon Porter after he won less than 50 percent of the vote in 2006 against a first-time candidate.
Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus jumped into the race earlier this month when former Clark County prosecutor Robert Daskas dropped from the contest citing “personal considerations.” Daskas had been running since September and his withdrawal from the race just about six months before Election Day left Democrats scrambling, but both the state party and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) now say Titus was their preferred candidate from the beginning.
Titus faces a steep fundraising challenge. As of March 31 Porter reported raising $1.8 million and had $1 million on hand while Daskas raised $584,000 and had $453,000 before he withdrew from the race. Titus will file her first campaign finance report, which will cover the second quarter of 2008, by July 15.
The DCCC had added Daskas to the “Red to Blue” list in March, which gives financial and campaign support to particularly strong Democrats running for Republican-held seats.
CQ Politics rates the November race Leans Republican. Porter’s weak performance in 2006 makes him vulnerable again in 2008 and Democrats hold the advantage in voter registration, 43 percent to 37 percent Republicans with 20 percent registered as non-partisan or with a third party. However, President Bush narrowly carried the district in 2004 with 50 percent to 49 percent for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry .
Three other Democrats and two other Republicans have filed for the race, as well as candidates from the Independent American, Green and Libertarian parties and one independent candidate. Democrat Andrew Martin, a certified public accountant who initially was running for the 3rd District, dropped his bid and instead filed for the state Assembly.
2nd District:
Six candidates are running in the expansive 2nd Congressional District, a seat that currently is held by first-term Republican Rep. Dean Heller . The Democrats are hoping Jill Derby will take over the seat and the former state party chairwoman has been burnishing her centrist credentials for the contest. Thursday she picked up the endorsement of the conservative Southern Blue Dog Coalition.
Derby said Thursday that the Democratic upset victories in the last two special elections (Louisiana and Mississippi) came from historically Republican districts that were similar to the 2nd District. “It really reflects the need for change that people see, and the fiscal conservatism that the Blue Dogs so advocate and represent is what people want to see,” she said in a conference call with reporters.
Democrats also argue that demographics have been trending more in their favor in the district, which covers part of Clark County — the most populous in the state — and the whole rest of the state. From 2004 to 2007, Democrats accounted for 34 percent of the district’s voters while Republicans had 47 percent (19 percent identified themselves as non-partisan or affiliated with a third-party). Democratic voter registration jumped in 2008, and now 37 percent identify themselves as Democrats, 45 percent as Republicans and 18 percent as unaffiliated or a member of a third-party organization, decreasing the generic GOP lead in from 13 percent in earlier years to 8 points.
As of March 31, the latest date covered by the most recent campaign finance reports, Heller reported raising $981,000 and had $808,000 on hand while Derby reported raising $144,000 and had $134,000 on hand. Blue Dog Co-Chair Mike Ross , the Democratic congressman from Arkansas, said in the conference call Thursday that the coalition would offer Derby financial support through its political action committee.
Nevada Congressional Races Firmed Up
Four other candidates filed for the race, but they are not expected to have a major impact on the contest. None has filed campaign finance reports with the Federal Election Commission, which candidates must do if they have raised more than $5,000. Candidates from the Independent American, Green and Libertarian parties signed up for the 2nd District race as well as one Republican challenger for Heller, James W. Smack.
CQ Politics rates the race Republican Favored.
1st District:
One Democrat, seven Republicans and two third-party candidates filed to challenge five-term Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley for the Las Vegas-based district. CQ Politics rates the race Safe Democrat. Democrats account for 51 percent of the district’s registered voters and Berkley has won her last two elections with more than 60 percent of the vote. Berkley also reported raising $1.6 million and had $1.2 million on hand for her campaign by March 31 while none the other candidates filed campaign finance reports.




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