By Jesse Stanchak, CQ Staff

Businessman Mike Erickson won his party’s nomination for a second time in two years Tuesday, but an ongoing scandal casts a pall over his victory and could hamper one of the GOP’s best shots at picking up a Democratic House seat in the fall.

Erickson beat former state Rep. Kevin Mannix by 51 percent to 43 percent, just a week after Mannix sent out an e-mail claiming Erickson had once driven a girlfriend to an abortion clinic and paid for her to terminate a pregnancy. Erickson has admitted to having a relationship with the woman, giving her a ride and giving her money, but claims he didn’t know the money was for an abortion. Both Mannix and Erickson ran as anti-abortion candidates.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Kurt Schrader beat Nancy Moran and Steve Marks, winning the Democratic nomination with 53 percent of the vote. Retired social worker Moran had 20 percent while Moran and Marks, a former chief of staff to Governor John Kitzhaber each garnered 18 percent Compared with the Republican primary, the Democratic contest was a bloodless affair; Schrader was the early favorite and there was little, if any, negative campaigning.

Schrader’s decisive victory is just one more factor that may help Democrats in the fall, when he and Erickson will compete to succeed outgoing Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley . Hooley’s sudden retirement announcement in February 2008 shocked the Oregon political establishment. With just over a month until the filing deadline, both parties scrambled to come up with strong candidates for what would surely be a fiercely contested race.

The 5th District is unquestionably Oregon’s most competitive. It favored President Bush over Sen. John Kerry by 50 percent to 49 percent in 2004. In previous cycles, voter registration favored Republicans, but this is no longer the case. As of May 15, the Oregon Secretary of State’s office counts 18,019 more registered Democrats than Republicans in the district. CQ Politics has rated the race “No Clear Favorite,” but will be revisiting its rating in days to come.

The state Republican Party is standing by Erickson as the nominee. “Mike Erickson has shown us he is a tough campaigner and he is ready to take on his Democratic opponent in the general election,” Oregon Republican Party Chairman Vance Day said in a written statement.

Erickson’s victory would have been something of an upset even without the abortion scandal. Mannix is the consummate party insider: a former state party chairman, a two-time candidate for governor and a former state representative whose ties to the Salem area were expected to give him a boost in the primary. Erickson has never held political office before and his only previous run ended with him losing to Hooley by 11 points in 2006.

Yet many in the party were impressed by the vigor of Erickson’s 2006 run, which was almost entirely self-financed. That run may have laid the groundwork for this year, building credibility and name recognition in the district that Erickson didn’t have the first time around. Erickson began campaigning again in late 2007 and was considered the presumed nominee even before Hooley’s exit.

It’s possible that voters doubted the veracity of the abortion story, which was based on a 2006 e-mail from Kristi Oetken, a friend of a woman named “Tawnya” who claims that Erickson paid for her abortion in 2000. While Tawnya has spoken to news outlets to prove that she is a real person, the story’s private nature makes it difficult to verify exactly what happened eight years ago.

It may also be Ericksons’ supporters were less likely to care about the abortion story than Mannix’s were. In a survey taken before the scandal erupted, conservatives made up 61 percent of respondents and favored Erickson by just 2 percent. Meanwhile, moderates leaned toward Erickson by 10 points. Among liberal Republicans, Erickson led by 19. Mannix identified himself heavily with Christian social conservatives in his previous runs for governor. Many Oregon political watchers cited Mannix’s association with social issues as a deciding factor in his 2006 Republican gubernatorial primary loss, in which voters favored more moderate Portland school board member Ron Saxton by 13 points.

Mannix’s own political history may have played a role as well. He has lost four statewide races in a row, two for governor and two for attorney general, and has been the subject of a number of attack ads during the past 10 years, most recently in 2006 over possible suspect dealings with an Indian tribe and his connections to wealthy out-of-state political financier Loren Parks.

Erickson’s respectable margin of victory shows he can most likely still count on GOP support, but Republicans only make up 36 percent of registered voters in the district, compared with 41 percent for Democrats and 19 percent for voters unaffiliated with any party. Historically, non-affiliated Oregon voters tend to favor Democrats but also have a lower turnout rate. In 2006, only 57 percent of registered non-affiliated voters statewide turned in a ballot, compared with 75 percent each for both major parties, according to the Oregon Secretary of State’s office.