CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
May 22, 2008 – 2:18 a.m.
Marine Duty Hasn’t Hurt Hunter’s Chances for His Father’s Seat
By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff
Despite a tour of duty in Afghanistan during his campaign, Marine Captain Duncan D. Hunter, son of Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter , appears headed for victory to represent California’s 52nd District.
In December, Hunter returned from six months’ active duty to a campaign that had been beefed up by support from members of Congress, local donors and supporters around the country. During his absence, his wife, Margaret, stood in as his surrogate on the campaign trail and helped rein in support for his first bid for political office.
His most recent deployment was his third tour in the Middle East. His two previous deployments were to Iraq.
For the last few months, Hunter has been meeting with supporters face-to-face and communicating his conservative message. He now counts more than 90 members of Congress as supporters and reported raising $500,000 as of March 31.
But Hunter is still facing primary challenges from Santee City Councilman Brian Jones, San Diego County Board of Education President Bob Watkins and retired federal agent Rick L. Powell in the June 3 GOP contest. Jones reported raising $160,000 through March 31, including $5,000 in personal funds, Watkins raised $302,000, including $100,000 in personal contributions, and Powell has not filed with the Federal Election Commission. Candidates are due to file pre-primary reports by midnight Thursday covering the period through May 14.
The military-focused district is strong Republican territory where Hunter was re-elected in 2006 with 65 percent of the vote and voters supported President Bush with 61 percent of the vote in 2004. CQ Politics rates the race Safe Republican, which makes the June 3 GOP primary the contest’s major deciding factor.
Hunter is regarded as the top prospect to succeed his father, who announced in the Spring of 2007 that he was retiring from his San Diego-area seat to focus on his longshot presidential bid, which he ended in January. The elder Hunter has a 28-year history in the district and has been a strong voice on issues related to illegal immigration and the military as recent former chairman of the Armed Services Committee.
The district also is home to several military bases including Marine Corps Air Station Miramar.
Hunter’s son, 31, has no political experience but enjoys an enviable amount of name recognition. He worked as a business analyst after graduating college but chose to enter the military after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
As expected, Hunter has endured some criticism for vying to succeed a member of his family, though legacy candidates are not uncommon in Congress.
Hunter conceded that there is little variation between the GOP candidates running for the seat, but notes, “I can’t change my name.”
“Opponents say that the name itself is worth so much money or whatever, but I can’t do anything about that,” Hunter said. “I would run no matter what my name was.”
He said all GOP candidates are championing conservative principles on issues related to illegal immigration, “the war on radical Islam” and the economy.
Marine Duty Hasn’t Hurt Hunter’s Chances for His Father’s Seat
Hunter said he believes he’s drawn wide support because of his message.
“People like what I stand for and I’m not afraid to come out and talk about the war and how well we’re doing and how important it is that we stand up for this country and not apologize for it,” Hunter stated.
Democrat Mike Lumpkin, a retired Navy SEAL, is favored to win the Democratic nomination over Vickie Butcher, an entrepreneur and educator. Lumpkin raised $163,000 as of March 31, including $1,000 in personal funds. Butcher raised $37,000 including $5,000 in personal funds.
Comments
I've enjoyed your writing on CQ politics, Rachel, but your depiction of the race in California's 52nd Congressional district was a bit too favorable to Duncan Hunter Jr, especially in light of the recent Democrats' special election wins in Mississippi, Illinois and Louisiana. Granted, Republican candidate Brian Jones has mounted an impressive grassroots campaign in parts of the district, but his inability to raise comparable funds to the Hunter campaign will keep him from the nomination. That will leave Hunter to face the likely Democratic choice, Mike Lumpkin. I am sure your sources can confirm that the DCCC is willing to spend the money necessary to elect such a strong candidate. With a little inquiry at the DCCC, you'll discover how confident they are about this race. You'll also discover that there are no candidates in the field with better resumes than Mike Lumpkin. Indeed, California's 52nd leans conservative, but as a retired Navy SEAL Commander, combat veteran, national security expert and gun owner, Mike Lumpkin is a very appealing candidate for those conservatives who have been left empty by Hunter representation that has been in lock-step with the Bush Administration and its miserable public ratings. The race in the 52nd will be the one to watch in California. I hope you will give it due consideration and will note the trend toward voter preference for Democratic candidates as well as a dysfunctional and confused Republican Party that is struggling to re-identify itself.
Dino, your analysis is flawed for this reason--The GOP candidates who lost the 3 specials all had a fatal flaw that, combined with the anti-GOP mood produced takeovers. Jenkins and Oberweis (LA6 & IL14) had so much negative baggage that they should have been thrown around by the ape in that Samsonite Luggage commercial from yesteryear. Davis (MS-1) came from the Memphis, TN suburban county in the northwest MS corner. The rest of the districts rural counties and Tupelo went with Childers because he was one of them against the "Memphis" candidate. Also, this was a non-partisan election (no party labels listed), lets see what happens to him in November. Had McLaughlin won the GOP primary, that district would not have flipped. You are correct to note that the Dems running (noteably in LA6, MS1 &CA52) are running as conservatives on some issues that might (in Lumpkin's case), or did (in LA6 & MS1) make them competative. However, there would have to be a flawed GOP candidate to take advantage of in CA52 and Hunter doesn't seem to be that. This is not a swing district and McCain should role here on the top of the ticket, especially against Obama. No matter how much you wish it and how down the GOP is now, there are not going to be 435 Democrats in January 2009. If there were, the Dems would have won LA1 as well.
Actually, DCCC leaders met with Democrat Vickie Butcher in May and were very impressed with her leadership experience and expertise in many issues. The DCCC has not endorsed either candidate but will support whoever wins the primary. Learn more about Vickie at www.votevickibutcher.com.
Your points are well taken, John. I agree that Jenkins and Oberweis brought with them a lot of negative baggage that turned away voters, and I do not believe Hunter Jr. to be a flawed person. I do believe, however, it will not take a flawed Republican nominee for a Democrat to win CA52. Ceding the point that voters tend to vote against something rather than for something--which may be a little disconcerting to Mike Lumpkin since he has so many qualifications that appeal to voters in the district--what flaws can the Democrats exploit in this race? If John McCain can attack Barrack Obama on his lack of experience, then so can the Democrats call out the lack of experience of Jr. If the Democrats can raise enough money to exploit the "birthright politics" issue of ceding a seat from a father to a reluctant son, then the Democrats can take advantage of Lumpkin's command leadership and DC experience. Hunter Jr. has also aligned himself pretty closely with the policies--and therefore, the policy failures--of the Bush administration, providing another opportunity for Mike Lumpkin, especially since many of the voters in the district, even the more conservative DTS voters, are frustrated with the Bush Administration. Lumpkin offers a refreshing and palatable alternative for them. Next, there is the position alignment with Hunter Sr. Jr. will live or die with the reputation and voting record of his father. Historically, Sr.'s representation has been favorable to CA52 voters, but with the current negative mood of the country, a faltering economy and a stagnant war, the voters are ready to look elsewhere. With strong contributions from the DCCC and good campaigning, Mike Lumpkin has got a real opportunity to take over this seat in November. I wouldn't take my eye off this district. It's a good time to be a Democrat in the California 52nd.
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