CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
June 3, 2008 – 12:03 a.m.
Five Questions About The End of the Democratic Primaries
By Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff
1) Will Sen. Obama Wrap up the Democratic Presidential Nomination Tuesday Night?
Most political observers believe that, for all intents and purposes, the nomination will be decided in Barack Obama ’s favor this week, within hours or days of the polls closing Tuesday in South Dakota and Montana, the last two states to hold nomination contests.
The party’s decision this past weekend to seat delegates from Michigan and Florida, albeit with half a vote each and in a manner denounced by some supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton , means the number of delegates Obama needs in his camp to claim a majority is 2,118. Clinton delegate guru Harold Ickes made it clear that Clinton could appeal the decision to give Florida and Michigan, which broke party rules by scheduling their primaries before the sanctioned dates, half the representation they would otherwise have enjoyed. But Obama’s influence on the powerful Rules and Bylaws Committee was evident in the panel’s decision.
The latest Associated Press delegate count puts Obama at 2,076, or 42 delegates short of the magic number, including 1,738 pledged delegates and 336 superdelegates (the party leaders and elected officials who are not bound to a candidate but often announce endorsements before they vote at the convention).
There are 31 pledged delegates at stake in Montana and South Dakota combined and another 29 superdelegates from those states. Obama is expected to run up a big margin in winning South Dakota, but Montana could be competitive. He likely will need about two dozen more superdelegates to take his side to lay claim to a majority of all delegates. That could happen Tuesday.
The South Dakota polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, and Montana closes at 10 p.m. EST.
2) Why is Sen. Clinton Still getting Superdelegate Endorsements If Obama’s Victory is All But Certain?
Superdelegates endorse for many reasons, not all of which involve who they think would make the best nominee or who they think is most likely to win the nomination. They may endorse out of loyalty to a friend or past supporter or because they want to show they stand with the candidate who is more popular with their voters or donors. Sen. Clinton picked up endorsements from superdelegates in Louisiana and her home state of New York on Monday, while Sen. Obama nabbed the backing of superdelegates from Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia and Connecticut.
3) When Will Sen. Obama Officially Become the Democratic Nominee?
Technically, that will not happen until the Democratic National Convention in August. The schedule for delegate selection of the presidential nominee has not yet been finalized, but the nomination usually occurs on third day of the four-day convention, which will be Wednesday, Aug. 27 this year. The vice presidential nominee is typically chosen the next day, though usually the presumed nominee’s choice is announced earlier. The official agenda for the convention will be determined by the Rules Committee.
4) What’s Next for Obama?
Obama turned most of his attention to presumed Republican presidential nominee John McCain after winning the North Carolina primary and narrowly losing in Indiana May 6, though his campaign launched a few last volleys at Clinton during the closing weeks of the primary campaign. Even so, now Obama should, for the first time, be able to run a full-scale campaign against McCain without looking over his shoulder at Clinton.
He appears to be intent on bringing Clinton supporters over to his side, unveiling a more conciliatory tone in recent public appearances and downplaying the severity of the rift between the camps. His success in unifying his party will no doubt be viewed as a test of his ability to fulfill his promise to unify the nation as president.
Five Questions About The End of the Democratic Primaries
“She is going to be a great asset when we go into November to make sure we beat the Republicans,” Obama said Sunday night.
The end of the Democratic primary season will no doubt signal the beginning of a GOP line of attack aimed at his policy record in Congress and in the Illinois legislature, areas that were difficult for Clinton to exploit in an intramural battle in which both candidates agree on most elements of public policy.
It also signals the beginning of the Democratic “veep-stakes,” as speculation increases about who Obama will choose as his running mate. Clinton, who has been claiming a popular-vote lead — an assertion that requires counting results in the unsanctioned Florida and Michigan contests in her tally — would be on anyone’s short list.
5) What’s Next for Clinton?
With no primaries or caucuses left, Clinton is likely to suspend campaign activities Tuesday Night. She has invited friends and donors to join her in New York for her speech.
She could endorse Obama — which would not foreclose the possibility of her becoming the nominee in August if he becomes politically un-viable later in the process.
Few people can claim to know what it is Clinton wants. But it is clear that she has increased her leverage over the last few months by winning primaries in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Kentucky and West Virginia, as well as the popular vote in Texas. That leverage includes about $23 million in general election money that she can either keep or turn over to the Democratic National Committee for use by November. Her primary campaign is in debt.
Thomas B. Edsall of the Huffington Post reported Monday that Clinton is also seeking Obama’s help in trying to ensure that African American officials who supported her are not punished with primary challenges. Earlier this year, Obama supporters made clear that black politicians who backed Clinton could face primaries in their next elections.
She has poured personal money into the campaign, and she may want Obama’s help in raising money to pay off her campaign’s debt.
There has been much speculation about what Clinton might want from Obama in terms of a position in his administration or perhaps a Supreme Court appointment. With no guarantee that she could win Senate confirmation, it is hard to imagine her negotiating for a nomination to the court or even a Cabinet post that would require the scrutiny of Senate hearings and a filibuster-breaking floor vote. Clinton could well be angling for the vice presidential spot, a position her supporters have long implied she might want with frequent talk of a unity or “dream” ticket.
While many Obama supporters believe she would be a drag on his candidacy, some Obama superdelegates, including Reps. David Scott and Chaka Fattah , have spoken positively about pairing the party’s top presidential contenders.




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