By Lauren Phillips, CQ Staff

The personal scandal that caused the stunning political downfall of Republican Rep. Vito Fossella, and his party’s stumbling efforts to recruit a candidate to succeed him in New York’s 13th Congressional District, have prompted CQ Politics to change its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Leans Republican.

Republican officials expected a tougher than usual fight this year for the Staten-Island based 13th, the only district in New York City that could be described as Republican-leaning. Fossella in 2006 defeated his underfunded Democratic challenger, lawyer Stephen A. Harrison, with 57 percent of the vote, his lowest vote share in a House career than began with his special election victory in 1997.

But Republicans fully expected that Fossella would be defending his seat this year, and they were blindsided when the congressman’s early May arrest on a drunk driving charge ended up unraveling a secret life in which the married father of three admitted to having a 3-year-old daughter from an extramarital relationship.

Under pressure from party officials, Fossella reluctantly decided in late May to forgo another re-election bid. The decision by the damaged incumbent to step aside initially appeared to improve the GOP’s prospects of holding the seat. CQ Politics, which had changed its rating on the race to No Clear Favorite from Republican Favored after the Fossella scandal broke, changed it to Leans Republican after the retirement announcement.

The local GOP then courted several prominent Republicans, including Staten Island District Attorney Daniel Donovan — but none of them took the plunge. GOP recruiters in early June ultimately handed their endorsement to retired Wall Street executive Frank Powers.

Powers has been involved in Republican Party circles and is a former finance director for Fossella’s House campaign committee. But he is a first-time candidate with untested political skills. He does have previous involvement in public life, but the government panel on which he served — the Metropolitan Transit Authority board — often takes flak from city residents over the mass transit system’s performance and fares.

Democrats, meanwhile, responded to the unexpected open-seat opportunity by rallying around an elected official, City Councilman Michael McMahon — giving a strong nudge aside to Harrison, the party’s 2006 nominee, who had stated his intentions to run again this year and has proceeded with his plans to run in the Sept. 9 Democratic primary. Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen , who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Democratic members of New York’s congressional delegation will hold a press event Friday morning at City Hall in Manhattan to tout their endorsements of McMahon.

With a bit less than five months to go before the general election, there is time for the Republicans to regain their footing and hold this seat. Staten Island, which has three-quarters of the population of a district that also reaches into southwestern Brooklyn, has long been New York City’s most suburban-like region.

With a smaller minority population than any of New York City’s congressional districts and a higher median income than most, the district has a constituency that can be amenable to Republicans. That doesn’t mean the GOP has a lock on the district, as Democrat Al Gore outran Republican George W. Bush there by 53 percent to 44 percent in 2000. But Bush, running for re-election in 2004, was favored by 55 percent of the 13th District’s voters.

“There’s this gross misconception that it’s a Republican borough,” said Tom Wrobleski, political editor at the local newspaper, Staten Island Advance. “But this is the quintessential ‘Reagan revolution’ place, not based on social issues but based on tax issues and pocketbook issues.”

Powers, gearing up after his late start, is shaping the message he will use in his campaign to keep the seat Republican. “I’m running because I think it’s time for someone with a business background to serve the district and the country, frankly,” Powers said in an interview with CQ Politics. “I saw an opportunity because of the way things happened here and I wanted to step up to the plate. I’m someone who knows how to put a team together, I’m working on that now.”

With his business background, Powers hopes to focus on economic stimulus programs, which are still in the works. “Everyone knows working families are hurting and are looking to Washington for answers,” Powers said. “I built my own business, I’ve been a businessman for 40 years and I have the experience for this. I want to put my experience to work.”

But McMahon, who represents the north section of Staten Island on the city council, has a higher public profile to build upon than does Powers. And Robert Pecorella, a professor of government politics at New York’s St. John’s University, said the Democrats’ effort to capture the 13th could benefit from the overall momentum they have built in national congressional politics since the gains in the 2006 elections that boosted the party to its current Senate and House majorities.