By Annie Johnson, CQ Staff

John Frohnmayer — a former chairman of the federal National Endowment for the Arts (NEA) who was expected to be a wild card in Oregon Republican Gordon Smith’s contest for re-election this year — has instead folded his hand.

Frohnmayer’s decision to end his bid as an independent candidate makes the general election a clear contest between two-term incumbent Smith and Jeff Merkley, the state House Speaker, who won the Democratic Senate primary on May 20.

Frohnmayer, a former Republican who was appointed by President George H.W. Bush to head the NEA, had a simple strategy heading in to the campaign: label Smith as too conservative a Republican for the generally Democratic-leaning state, and hope the Democratic Party nominated a strongly liberal candidate to oppose him — a combination that might enable Frohnmayer to amass support from voters in the middle.

But Smith, who throughout his tenure has portrayed himself as a conservative-leaning independent thinker, in recent years has more openly disagreed with President George W. Bush and the Senate Republican leadership. Smith gained particular attention in late 2006 when he strongly criticized Bush’s handling of the Iraq war and his open-ended commitment of U.S. troops to that conflict.

Meanwhile, Frohnmayer already was showing little traction in Senate race polls when the Democrats nominated Merkley, a member of the Democratic establishment, over Steve Novick, a liberal activist running as a political outsider.

Frohnmayer — whose brother, Dave Frohnmayer, is the president of the University of Oregon — denied in an interview with CQ Politics that he had entered the race as a “spoiler,” a epithet lobbed at him by Democrats who feared he would cut into an anti-Smith vote that would normally go to Merkley.

“What I had hoped when I started this race as an independent was that there would be an upwelling of support,” Frohnmayer said. “That did not happen.”

Frohnmayer also said that catching up with the ever-growing fundraising efforts of both Smith and Merkley would have required a near-miracle. “I confess I’m not a very good politician in the sense that I absolutely hate raising money and I don’t do it willingly,” he said.

The candidates’ most recent campaign finance reports show Frohnmayer is telling the truth. While Smith reported nearly $5 million in total receipts through April 30 and Merkley checked in with $1.9 million, Frohnmayer had raised just $77,000 for his campaign.

Some in Oregon, though, say Frohnmayer may have undermined his attempt to capture the political center, especially with his call last year for President Bush to be impeached over a controversy involving domestic wiretapping in the name of fighting terrorism.

“Not exactly the kind of position that is likely to identify one as a moderate,” said Bill Lunch, chairman of the political science department at Oregon State University. He added of Frohnmayer, “His ability to portray himself as a moderate in the center of the electorate kept shrinking, in part by the moves of his adversaries but also because of his own decisions,”

What is now unclear is the effect Frohnmayer’s exit will have on the race, which CQ Politics currently rates as Leans Republican but deems highly competitive.

Many in Oregon have suggested that Frognmayer’s supporters will steer in the direction of Merkley, thanks mostly to his liberal policy background and his calls to impeach Bush. Others have said that voters still see Frohnmayer as a moderate Republican after his time working under the elder Bush, and that his supporters will tend back in the direction of Smith.