CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
July 21, 2008 – 11:58 a.m.
GOP, Playing Catchup in Alabama Races, Awaits Tuesday’s Runoffs
By Annie Johnson, CQ Staff
The two key U.S. House races in Alabama this year are in conservative-leaning districts left open by retiring incumbents, and Republicans plan to make strong efforts in both of them.
In the northern 5th District, the pending departure of nine-term Democratic Rep. Robert E. “Bud” Cramer is prompting what is expected to be one of the GOP’s top takeover bids this fall. Meanwhile, in the southern 2nd District, Democrats will make a play for the turf of eight-term Republican Terry Everett , which Republicans have long dominated.
The Republican runoffs being held Tuesday in those districts will finally allow party officials to proceed with their general election battle plans, after a six-week delay since their crowded fields produced inconclusive first-round primary results on June 3. Republican voters in the 2nd District will choose between two lawmakers, state Rep. Jay Love and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith, who have staged an expensive and combative runoff contest, while the GOP faithful in the 5th will pick between insurance executive Wayne Parker and businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie.
It is unclear whether, or how much, the long layovers have set back Republican chances for the general election contests in those districts. But they have clearly provided head starts for the Democratic nominees who are being touted by their party’s officials as top recruits. State Sen. Parker Griffith is campaigning in the 5th District as a center-right Democrat in the mold of popular incumbent Cramer. Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, is campaigning in the 2nd as a conservative Democrat with an urban base and family roots in the district’s ample rural regions.
CQ Politics currently rates the 5th District race as No Clear Favorite, while the 2nd District race is in the competitive Leans Republican category.
In the 2nd District race, Love has emerged as the pick of the national Republican Party establishment. Several U.S. House Republicans, headed by Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, Minority Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri and Deputy Whip Eric Cantor of Virginia, held a fundraising reception for Love on June 25.
One reason Love is perceived by some Republicans as the more electable candidate is that he finished well ahead in the six-candidate primary field with 35.5 percent to 21.8 percent for Smith.
Love also is the better-funded candidate. In fact, his willingness to reach deeply into his own pockets during the primary campaign activated the “millionaire’s amendment,” which under federal campaign finance law allowed his opponents’ supporters to contribute up to triple the usual individual limit to their campaigns. In a coincidence of timing, though, the Supreme Court on June 26 struck the millionaire’s amendment down as unconstitutional.
The candidates’ pre-primary reports to the Federal Election Commission showed Love had raised a total of just more than $1 million, $650,000 of that his own money, and had $164,000 remaining on hand. Smith trailed, though not overwhelmingly, with $878,000 in receipts, nearly $400,000 of that self-funded, and $100,000 cash on hand.
That money has paid for negative advertising on both sides, some of which has caused flaps. Smith ran an ad in which Alabama Republican Gov. Bob Riley appeared to be criticizing Love over a vote on tax increases for oil companies, a measure that Riley supported, but was rebuked by Riley, who made it clear he is staying neutral in the runoff campaign.
Smith, though, got backup support against an ad attack by Love, who suggested Smith has received gambling money for her campaign because a fundraiser was co-sponsored by businessman Ronnie Gilley, who is building a development that includes a bingo parlor. Gilley responded that no gambling money was involved in the funds raised for Smith’s campaign.
There have been fewer fireworks in the 5th District Republican runoff, in part because Parker’s solid first-place finish in the first-round vote established him as the favorite to win the nomination. Parker ran ahead of the six-candidate primary field with 48.8 percent, leaving him just short of the majority needed to avoid the runoff, while Guthrie was a distant second with 18.3 percent.
Guthrie, however, gained some attention by criticizing Parker’s past brief stint in lobbying and raised enough money to keep her campaign alive. She reported $594,000 in receipts as of June 25, $526,000 of that her own money, to $409,000 for Parker, who at that point had put none of his own money into his campaign. Guthrie also spent heavily, though, leaving her with just more than $5,000 as of that date to $46,000 for Parker.
GOP, Playing Catchup in Alabama Races, Awaits Tuesday’s Runoffs
Though Democratic incumbent Cramer dominated his recent House races, Parker came closest to upsetting him, back in 1994, when he held Cramer to a 1 percentage-point margin. Cramer won their 1996 rematch much more comfortably, by more than 13 points.
While Republican officials are preoccupied with determining their nominees for the 2nd and 5th district races, they have to look over their shoulders a bit at the Democrats’ increasing efforts to promote a competitive challenge to three-term GOP Rep. Mike D. Rogers in the eastern 3rd District.
Some strong early fundraising by Josh Segall, a lawyer from Montgomery, has caught the eyes of officials at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC). (CORRECTED July 21. Mr. Segall was originally identified incorrectly as Tom).
Segall, who had no competition for the 3rd District Democratic nomination, raised $308,000 through May 14, just less than half of Rogers’ $756,000. With leftover cash from his routine 2006 re-election campaign, Rogers had a even more impressive cash-on-hand lead of nearly $950,000 to about $200,000 for Segall.
While the contest, currently rated Safe Republican by CQ Politics, hasn’t risen to the Democrats’ top priority list, the DCCC is describing it as one to watch.
“Josh Segall is working very hard to put together the political and financial support necessary to run a competitive campaign, and this is certainly a race we are watching as it develops,” said Kyra Jennings, a spokeswoman for the DCCC.
Though Republican-leaning, the 3rd on paper is the state’s most competitive among the five districts held by GOP members. While the district has seen longtime conservative Democrats support GOP presidential candidates — including Bush, who took 58 percent in the 3rd in 2004 — it also has a Democratic base that includes a sizable black constituency (roughly a third of the total population) and pockets of college liberals. The 3rd encompasses parts of Montgomery and is home to Auburn University and Tuskegee University, founded in 1881 and the first historically black college to be recognized as a National Historic Landmark.
The potential for a surge in black turnout behind Democrat Barack Obama ’s bid to become the nation’s first African-American element is a wild card in the 3rd District contest. “If African-American voters come out in numbers that overcome our previous voting models, then that could certainly make a Democrat competitive,” said David Lanoue, professor and chairman of the political science department at the University of Alabama.
But Lanoue also noted, “Incumbents are tough to beat during even the toughest of years.” Rogers showed that in 2006, a rough year for Republicans nationally, when he won with 59 percent of the vote and a 21-point margin over his underfunded Democratic opponent.
Republicans express confidence that Rogers will prevail, even if Segall proves to provide tougher competition. Philip Bryan, communications director for the Alabama Republican Party, portrayed the challenger as “largely funded by trial lawyers,” adding, “Segall is running a ‘no issues’ campaign and trying to ride the Obama wave. Voters know what they are getting with Congressman Rogers, he has been a proven leader for the district, and they will struggle to find confidence in someone like Segall who is evidently still in the process of deciding his position on the issues.”




Comments
Alabama primary runofffs were last week. Way to be on top of things.
Hello perplexed, Thanks for your comment on our recently (re)posted Alabama story. Actually, the story ran a week ago, but someone correcting something small in it pushed the wrong button and voila, it re-emerged with today's date on it. Unfortunately, we can't turn back time, so we're stuck with that date now.
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