By Zack Beauchamp, CQ Staff

Democrats are optimistic about their chances to boost the size of their New York contingent in the House of Representatives this year and this week’s campaign finance reports and candidacy filings suggest their hopes are well-founded.

CQ Politics rates seven out of New York’s 29 House races competitive: three of the seats are currently Democratic, four are Republican. But, now, our race ratings say@http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=11@] that Democrats are favored to win 5 of the 7 seats, a possible pickup of two seats.

Here’s a rundown of the races:

• The 13th District in New York City, a longtime Republican stronghold, was thrown into chaos when Rep. Vito J. Fossella decided not to seek reelection after a drunk driving arrest and the revelation he had fathered a child outside of his marriage. The ensuing complications have proven so trying for the GOP that CQ Politics now rates this once-Safe Republican seat Democrat Favored. And the Democrats are already raising money to compete in the Sept. 9 primary.

As of June 30, Democrat Michael E. McMahon had raised almost $499,000 and had more than $470,000 in cash on hand, while Stephen A. Harrison reported raising $185,000 and had $63,000 on hand. With the exception of Fossella, none of the Republican candidates had financial reports on file with the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

• Just up the Hudson River from New York City, in the 19th District, first term Democrat John Hall now has an enormous financial advantage over his closest Republican competitor: Kieran Michael Lalor, an Iraq veteran and founder of the Eternal Vigilance Society (a group devoted to aiding politicians “who espouse aggressive policies to achieve total victory in the War on Terror”). Hall’s $1.3 million in cash on hand dwarfs Lalor’s $151,000. He is a late replacement for businessman Andrew Marshall Saul — the initial Republican choice to challenge Hall — who dropped out of the race, citing personal issues, earlier this year. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democrat.

• Three Republicans have filed to challenge 20th District Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand , one of the fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrats elected in 2006. State party Chairman Sandy Treadwell, who is backed by the National Republican Congressional Committee, has emerged as the frontrunner. Former Green Beret Michael Rocque and local businessman John Wallace are also in the Sep. 9th primary.

Gillibrand, who has no primary opponent, has a growing war chest — $2.8 million cash on hand. Treadwell is best positioned to compete, with around $1.3 million; Rocque has $15,000, while Wallace has just $2,300. CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democrat.

• The Democrats enjoy a larger advantage in the 24th District, where first term Representative Michael Arcuri faces a longshot challenge from businessman Richard L. Hanna. Arcuri has raised over $1.1 million and has a healthy $726,000 in cash on hand. Because Hanna announced his candidacy very late (May of this year), he is behind in terms of organization and fundraising ($409,000 in cash) in a district that Arcuri won by a comfortable 9 points in 2006. CQ Politics rates this race Democrat Favored.

• The upstate 25th District is another good opportunity for the Democrats to pick up a Republican seat. Rep. James T. Walsh is retiring, and his 2006 opponent, former Congressional aide Daniel Maffei, is in an even better position than last time, when he barely lost. With $962,000 in cash on hand, Maffei has a large financial advantage over his opponent, Onondaga County Legislature Chairman Dale Sweetland, who has $108,000. Maffei is also getting support from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC), “Red to Blue” program, which gives selected Democratic candidates in open or Republican-held districts extra support. CQ Politics rates the 25th District race Leans Democrat.

• The Republicans’ best hopes for retaining seats are in the 26th and 29th Districts, in western New York. Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds is retiring in the 26th, and Republicans have united around a replacement, businessman Christopher Lee, who already has $637,000 in cash on hand.

The Democrats are in for a bruising primary fight: Iraq War veteran Jonathan P. Powers has the support of all seven of the district’s county Democratic organizations and the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, but 2006 nominee Jack Davis is sinking a significant amount of his large personal fortune into the primary race. A third candidate, local lawyer Alice Kryzan, is also vying for the nomination, but she is considered to have at best an outside chance. Davis has already spent most of the $3 million he reported raising by June 30, he has $35,000 in cash on hand, Powers has $489,000, and Kryzan has $247,000. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Republican.

• Twenty-ninth District Republican Rep. John R. “Randy” Kuhl Jr. has an edge over 2006 Democratic challenger and former Navy commander Eric Massa, but this race could be very close. While Kuhl is in a Republican-leaning district, he is behind in cash on hand ($619,000 to Massa’s $652,000). He defeated Massa by a scant 51 to 49 margin the last time around. Massa is another “Red to Blue” beneficiary. CQ rates the race Leans Republican.