By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

New Hampshire Republican Sen. John E. Sununu ’s re-election strategy of having a not-so-public campaign, sitting tight and stockpiling significant funds is not working - at least at the moment. Many polls show his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, with a consistent double-digit advantage.

Until its latest survey, the majority of New Hampshire Senate polls have shown Sununu trailing Shaheen for the past year, estimates Andrew E. Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Smith and other state political observers believe Sununu’s start from behind puts him at a major disadvantage.

However, the Survey Center’s latest Granite State poll, conducted July 11-20, showed a considerable tightening of the race with Shaheen going from an 8 point advantage in April to a 46 percent to 42 percent lead over Sununu, just about the size of the 4.3 percent margin of error.

Nonetheless, CQ Politics is changing its rating of the race from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democrat to reflect Sununu’s current position as he seeks a second term. CQ Politics will be monitoring whether Sununu gains ground this fall when he is expected to start spending his large campaign coffers.

Sununu’s principal campaign committee reported raising a total of $6.8 million through June 30 and with $5.1 million cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission. Shaheen reported raising $4.2 million and was left with $2.2 million on hand. Sununu had a head start on Shaheen, and she has spent money on advertising, among other expenditures.

Sununu has not yet run radio or television ads.

Sununu’s campaign said the senator is following his own schedule. “Our campaign has a time line and a strategy in place and we are following it according to plan, not based on what our opponent – whom we have beaten before – is or isn’t doing,” Sununu spokeswoman Stefani Zimmerman said in a written statement Tuesday. Sununu bested Shaheen in 2002 by 4 percentage points.

Neither Sununu nor Shaheen have competitive primaries on Sept. 9.

An American Research Group Inc. poll released Tuesday put Sununu 22 points behind Shaheen, 58 to 36 percent. A Rasmussen telephone survey released June 20 showed Shaheen had increased her lead over Sununu and held a current 14 point advantage, 53 to 39 percent. Surveys also have shown Sununu with an approval rating below 50 percent.

In her statement, Zimmerman argued that “the only poll that matters is the one held on Election Day” and noted the senator has never before lost an election. Sununu served in the House from 1997 to 2003.

Republican state party chairman Fergus Cullen recently told CQ Politics that since Sununu has yet to run advertising, polls were merely a measure of national mood.

A national and state political climate favoring Democrats came to a head in 2006 when New Hampshire voters ousted both Republican House members in favor of Democrats and won majorities in the state House and Senate. Not even two years later, President Bush and the war in Iraq remain unpopular among a majority of state voters and Democrats are linking Sununu to both.

Sununu faces a political climate that is nearly opposite of his first Senate run - also against Shaheen - in 2002. That year, Republicans in New Hampshire made strong gains at the polls and Bush’s approval was high. Sununu was helped by his high-profile primary victory over incumbent Republican Robert C. Smith and a last-minute get-out-the-vote effort.