Key House Races Shift Towards the Democrats

• Illinois’ 13th (New Rating: Republican Favored. Previous Rating: Safe Republican). Republican Rep. Judy Biggert , who has centrist GOP leanings, has been very politically secure in a mostly Republican-leaning district that includes Naperville, Bolingbrook and other suburbs southwest of Chicago. But she may need to keep an eye on Democratic businessman Scott Harper, who already has raised more money than 2006 Democratic nominee Joseph Shannon, who won 42 percent of the vote in what was the best showing by a Democrat against Biggert in her five terms. Harper’s campaign is serious enough that he’s attracted contributions from Illinois Sen. Richard J. Durbin and Rep. Jan Schakowsky . The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the political arm of House Democrats, hasn’t included Illinois’ 13th on its lists of highly competitive Republican-held districts, and Biggert still is strongly favored. But this a race to keep an eye on for signs of increased competitiveness.

• Minnesota’s 2nd(New Rating: Republican Favored. Previous Rating: Safe Republican). Steve Sarvi is an Iraq War veteran and the former mayor of Watertown whose biography and experience make him a strong recruit for Democratic efforts to take over the 2nd District from three-term Rep. John Kline . CQ Politics is changing its rating on the race to Republican Favored from Safe Republican, indicating it is a race to watch. The DCCC has categorized the race similarly. It lists the 2nd District race as one of its 20 “Emerging Races,” which means the party is keeping an eye on the race and will get involved if Sarvi meets certain criteria to prove the strength of his campaign. However, weak fundraising for Sarvi and overall demographics give Kline the advantage in holding the district, which covers the southern Twin Cities suburbs. Sarvi reported raising $262,000 and had $98,000 on hand by June 30 while Kline raised $1.1 million and had $647,000 on hand by the same date. Voters in Minnesota do not register by party, but results from the presidential race indicate Republicans hold the advantage in the 2nd — President Bush carried the district with 51 percent of the vote in 2000 and increased his take in 2004 to 54 percent of the vote. Kline easily defeated FBI whistleblower Coleen Rowley 56 percent to 40 percent in 2006.

• New Mexico’s 2nd (New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored). Steve Pearce made this southern New Mexico district all but untouchable since winning the seat in 2002, but his departure to run for the seat of retiring Sen. Pete V. Domenici opens up the race. Democratic pick-up efforts are aided by the fact that their nominee is a conservative Democrat who can appeal to a broad swath of the party. Harry Teague, an oilman and former member of the Lea County Board of Commissioners, defeated progressive Democrat Bill McCamley in the June 3 primary after bolstering his campaign with $765,000 through May. The DCCC has added Teague to its “Red to Blue” list of highly competitive challenges to Republican seats that the campaign committee will give logistical support and, in many cases, money. Restaurant chain owner Ed Tinsley won the five-way GOP primary with 31 percent of the vote after putting $296,000 into his own campaign through May. Southern New Mexico’s longstanding preference for Republican representation gives Tinsley a slight edge in the race, but Teague guarantees a highly competitive contest.

• New York’s 19th(New Rating: Democrat Favored. Previous Rating: Leans Democratic). The failure by the Republican Party to recruit a top-tier candidate to challenge first-term Democratic Rep. John Hall has pushed the race further in favor of the former Orleans rocker (“Still The One”). Republican Kieran Michael Lalor, an Iraq War veteran who works the night shift of a union job and campaigns during the day, is a first-time candidate. The Republican county committees rallied behind Lalor as their standard bearer for the Hudson Valley district, but only after recruitment stumbles. The DCCC lists Hall as one of their “Frontline Democrats” that the party will fight to protect and Hall enters the race with a serious fundraising advantage. He reported raising $1.9 million and had $1.3 million on hand by June 30 while Lalor reported raising $227,000 and had $151,000 on hand by the same date.

• Oregon’s 5th(New Rating: Leans Democratic. Previous Rating: No Clear Favorite). When Democratic Rep. Darlene Hooley ’s decided to retire, the 5th appeared to be one of the Republicans’ top shots at overtaking a seat in Congress, but the potential stumbling blocks surrounding the GOP nominee, businessman Mike Erickson, have appeared to set his party back. Erickson was clouded by scandal when he barely won the May primary. His GOP opponent alleged anti-abortion candidate Erickson once drove a girlfiend to an abortion clinic and paid for her to terminate a pregnancy. Erickson has no political experience while the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Kurt Schrader, is running on his record in the legislature. Since the primary, the odds have been slightly in the Democrats’ favor in the competitive district. But Erickson’s ability to self-fund has enabled him to hold a significant fundraising lead that he is likely to maintain over Schrader.

• Texas’ 7th(New Rating: Republican Favored. Previous Rating: Safe Republican). With more than $1 million in his campaign account as July began, Democrat Michael Skelly, a wind energy executive who is taking on four-term Republican Rep. John Culberson , is among the best-funded challengers in the nation. Skelly has ample personal wealth, though the vast majority of his campaign funds have come from individual donors. Culberson, who was re-elected in 2006 with 59 percent of the vote, has significantly ramped up his fundraising this year.

• Texas’ 10th (New Rating: Republican Favored. Previous Rating: Safe Republican). Democrat Larry Joe Doherty, a trial lawyer, has had success raising money for his uphill campaign against Republican Rep. Mike McCaul, who is in his second term representing a district that stretches from eastern Austin to the suburbs west of Houston. CQ Politics was also swayed to re-rank Texas 10 as Republican Favored in part because McCaul’s 55 percent showing in 2006 was not overwhelming. Like Skelly in Texas’ 7th, Doherty is running in a district with a generic Republican lean and will need to attract split-ticket voters who prefer John McCain to Obama in the presidential race.

• Texas’ 22nd (New Rating: No Clear Favorite. Previous Rating: Leans Democratic). Though the strong Republican tendencies of this mainly suburban Houston district are unmistakable, CQ Politics had kept this contest in Leans Democratic since the beginning of this campaign cycle because there was a possibility, however small, that Democratic Rep. Nick Lampson might again face Shelley Sekula-Gibbs. She is the former Houston city councilwoman who lost to Lampson in a 2006 write-in campaign that followed the ill-timed resignation of former Republican leader Tom DeLay. But, in a Republican runoff election in early April, district Republicans rejected Sekula-Gibbs and instead backed Pete Olson, a former chief of staff to Republican Sen. John Cornyn who will be a tougher challenger for Lampson. Olson’s background as a military veteran will be helpful to his campaign, and his Capitol Hill ties have helped him raise money. Anticipating a tough race, Lampson is voting against his party far more often than he did when he represented a much less Republican-leaning district from 1997 through 2004.

• Virginia’s 10th (New Rating: Republican Favored. Previous Rating: Safe Republican). As she did in 2006, Democrat Judy Feder is raising large sums of money for her campaign against Republican Rep. Frank R. Wolf , who is the dean of the state’s U.S. House delegation. Because she lost that first race by 16 percentage points, CQ Politics resisted moving Virginia 10 out of safe Republican territory. Rematch campaigns rarely are successful, and many rematch-minded candidates do worse the second time around. But the likelihood of a strong Democratic year statewide — Mark Warner is a strong favorite to win a Senate seat and Obama is polling competitively against McCain — could create an environment in which Feder could run a more competitive campaign.

• West Virginia’s 2nd(New Rating: Leans Republican. Previous Rating: Republican Favored). Four-term Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is well-liked and has some centrist leanings, but her election victories also have been aided by underfunded or flawed Democratic opponents. She may face her toughest challenge yet from Anne Barth, a longtime West Virginia-based aide to Democratic Sen. Robert C. Byrd who entered the race after Democratic state Sen. John Unger withdrew just before the January candidate filing deadline. With $636,000 in campaign receipts through the end of June, Barth has already raised more than 2006 Democratic nominee Mike Callaghan raised for the duration of a campaign in which he won 43 percent of the vote against Capito.

— Marie Horrigan and Rachel Kapochunas contributed to this report