By Jessica Benton Cooney, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Electoral Votes: 4

There was a time — as recently as the late 1980s — when John McCain might have been able to depend on an embrace from voters in Maine, a stout fortress of Yankee Republicanism. In the 1988 president contest, George Bush, well known for his vacation compound in the Maine coastal city of Kennebunkport, defeated Michael S. Dukakis of nearby Massachusetts by a comfortable 11 percentage-point margin.

But the state’s long-dormant Democratic Party has fought its way into competition and swept past the GOP in Maine’s presidential politics — joining most of the rest of New England. By 1992, Bush finished third, narrowly behind independent Ross Perot, as Democrat Bill Clinton carried the state with 39 percent. In 2004, John Kerry took the state by 9 points over George W. Bush .

This swing does not quite make Barack Obama a shoo-in to carry Maine’s four electoral votes, even after he won the Feb. 10 Democratic caucuses with 59 percent of a record 45,000 participants. Though that big Perot vote was 16 years ago, an unusually large proportion of Maine’s voters still regard themselves as independents. Voters also are still open to voting for Republicans who are moderates, at least on social issues, such as the state’s two senators, Olympia J. Snowe and Susan Collins .

Christian Potholm, government professor at Maine’s Bowdoin College, said Maine voters “reject people far to the right or the left.” He added, “It’s a complete misnomer that the voting profile in Maine has swung left.”

McCain’s overall conservative record, including on most social issues, and his consistent support for the war in Iraq likely remain obstacles to his hopes of grabbing Maine from Barack Obama .

But there also is a quirk in Maine’s electoral votes that will require Obama to pay equal attention to both of the state’s congressional districts. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that don’t guarantee all their electoral votes to the statewide winner. Instead, the statewide winner automatically gets two votes, with one each going to the winners in the individual congressional districts.

Obama should have no problem in the southern district that includes Portland and Augusta. Kerry took 55 percent there in 2004, and six-term Democratic Rep. Tom Allen — who has left the seat open to challenge Collins for the Senate this year — won even more easily. And while Republicans argue that McCain, who casts himself as an independent-minded Republican, has a shot in the sprawling and heavily rural northern 2nd District, Obama has the edge there, too: Kerry took 52 percent, and Democratic Rep. Michael H. Michaud is strongly favored to win a fourth term in the district.

Anthony Corrado, professor of government at Maine’s Colby College, said it is just “not a great year to be a Republican,” and that the political landscape in Maine “is changing to benefit Democrats.”

Collins, meanwhile, has some significant advantages as she seeks a third Senate term, including strong statewide job approval ratings and an ample campaign treasury. But she faces a tough challenge from Allen, who also is well funded and has a base in the Portland-centered district where he regularly won his House races with 60 percent of the vote or more. CQ Politics rates the Senate race Leans Republican.

Democrat Chellie Pingree, a former state Senate majority leader who challenged Collins in 2002 and later headed the watchdog group Common Cause, is favored as the Democratic nominee to hold the House seat Allen left open. The Republicans have a capable candidate in Charlie Summers, a former regional Small Business Administration official who entered the race while serving as a public affairs officer in Iraq. But Pingree at mid-year had a vast fundraising edge, and Summers, running in a less-than-favorable partisan environment, has lots of ground to make up after losing by 20 points as the GOP’s 2004 challenger to Allen. CQ Politics rates this race Democrat Favored.