CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 6, 2008 – 12:11 a.m.
2008 Election Forecast: Obama Will Make McCain Work for North Dakota
By Lauren Phillips, CQ Staff
CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican
Electoral Votes: 3
History suggests that John McCain should be able to win three electoral votes with ease in North Dakota, a largely rural and sparsely populated state with a mainly conservative electorate. President Bush’s past two, lopsided wins extended the Republicans’ presidential election winning streak in the state to 10. Over the past 30 years, the smallest victory margin for a Republican nominee in North Dakota was 7 percentage points in 1996 for Bob Dole over President Bill Clinton.
Yet the Obama camp contends that winning North Dakota isn’t impossible, and at a minimum they hope to force John McCain to expend some effort (and money) there.
Barack Obama has opened campaign offices across North Dakota and says he will compete against McCain in the state, building off his triumph over Hillary Rodham Clinton in North Dakota’s well-attended Democratic caucuses. McCain, on the other hand, lagged in building a personal organization here. Much more focused on primaries than caucus states during his drive to the GOP nomination, McCain drew just 23 percent in the North Dakota caucuses, a distant second to the 36 percent drawn by the winner, Mitt Romney.
But even though Democrats have held both U.S. Senate seats and the at-large House seat since the 1986 elections, McCain “should win easily and without much effort,” said Mark Jendrysik, an associate professor of political science at the University of North Dakota.
The Republican advantage in North Dakota also is evident in the party’s hold on the governor’s office, with John Hoeven an overwhelming favorite to win a third term, and its majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Comments
Anoither Liberal media bias story - there is no way Obama comes within 7 pts of McCain in ND SD WY or MT. Dream on moveon and dailykos kooks. Obama may not even win States like WA and OR
Dean O, reading your comment I have a feeling that anything anyone says to you is suspect to "liberal media bias." Guess what dude-- the sky is blue. Better not believe me though, I might have a liberal bias. Anyway, did you even read the entire article-- that last part there basically says Obama shouldn't even think of trying. Or does that count as liberal media bias to you?
What are you basing your ratings on? Obama has consistently shown roughly a 10-plus-point lead in Minnesota and that state "leans" D. Meanwhile, ND and SD look to be legitimately competitive -- McCain has narrow leads of 2.5 and 6 points, respectively. www.pollster.com. The Dakotas are conservative, but theyre not NE and KS. Clinton came within 4 and 6 points of winning them in 1996. I could perhaps see a "favored" rating... but safe R??? If it's past performance you're basing this on, then perhaps you should give more credit to the fact that Rs cannot seem to win in MN, even when Nader takes 5.2% of the vote (2000). In 1988, Dukakis won there by 7, even as he was losing nationally by 7. It's not a "lean" state historically... this isn't horseshoes and hand grenades.
Obama might not even win WA and OR? That's pretty bold conjecture right there. I'd love to hear you try to back up that little piece of political science fiction. Anyway, this has been fairly clear for weeks. If Obama manages to reverse the inevitable souring, along with the split that Barr is going to cause, it's landslide instead of mere victory and ND, SD, MT, VA, NV and OH. There's even an outside possibility of Obama scoring NC, GA, FL, MO, and TX. Hahahaha, just kidding, no way Obama wins TX.
As an Oregonian, I can just about guarantee that McCain will not come close in Oregon this fall. Bank on it. Washington?...bigger win for Obama than Oregon. DeanO....keep on dreaming. While I agree that Obama will not win Wyoming, you've apparently not seen any polling of the other states you mention or you might temper your comments.
DeanO, I have lived in Arizona for seven years and I lived in Seattle for 14 years. John McCain will not even come close to Obama in Washington. Obama has a 16 point lead in Washington and something like a 10 point lead in Oregon. By contrast, John McCain is only ahead of Obama in Arizona by between 4 points and 7 points. Does that tell you something?
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