By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican

Electoral Votes: 3

John McCain can count reliably on South Dakota. The state has gone Republican in the last 10 presidential elections. Even in 1972, when favorite-son George McGovern was the Democratic nominee, Richard Nixon still prevailed by almost 27,000 votes. George W. Bush won the state in both 2000 and 2004 by 22 percentage points.

As a result, few expect the Barack Obama campaign to put up much of a fight. “They’ll run ads, they’ll maintain an office, he may even visit the state briefly. But I would guess it’s not a high priority simply because he’s got other states that he’s probably more concerned about,” said Brent Lerseth, a professor of political science at Augustana College in Sioux Falls.

McCain took 70 percent in the state’s primary-season-ending June 3 contest, a relatively modest showing given that he’d effectively wrapped up the nomination four months earlier. Still, he can count as his earliest congressional supporters the state’s sole Republican in Washington: John Thune , whose conservatism, telegenic appeal and relative youth (he’s 47) put him on many prognosticators’ vice presidential short lists.

South Dakota is far from entirely unfriendly to Democrats. The state’s senior senator, Tim Johnson , who was once viewed as a prime GOP target, had a life-threatening brain hemorrhage in December 2006 but has recovered significantly and is now an overwhelming favorite for a third term this fall. The state’s sole House member, Democrat Stephanie Herseth Sandlin , also has an easy re-election race.