By Annie Johnson, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican

Electoral Votes: 9

Alabama, like most of the other states in the South, has become a Republican presidential stronghold during the past three decades. President Gerald R. Ford in 1976 was the last nominee of the party to lose the state, to Jimmy Carter from neighboring Georgia. And most of Alabama’s voters tend to support an assertive use of U.S. military might. In other words, it’s tailor-made for John McCain , who can claim a generally down-the-line GOP voting record during his quarter-century in Congress and has a legendary background as a Navy pilot subjected to torment as a prisoner of war in Vietnam.

“Alabama is a conservative state, a state that I think is very responsive to not only John McCain ’s appeal but to his back story,” said David J. Lanoue, professor and chairman of the political science department at the University of Alabama. “The appeal of McCain’s heroism on top of his conservatism is very strong.”

George W. Bush secured Alabama by a margin of fully 25 percentage points four years ago. And it has two Republican Senators, elected by solid margins: Richard C. Shelby , who switched from being a Democrat 14 years ago, and Jeff Sessions , a heavy favorite to win his third term this fall against a liberal state senator, Vivian Davis Figures. Republican Bob Riley cruised into his second term as governor two years ago by 16 points. And the GOP holds five of the seven congressional districts.

Yet even here, Republicans are not without worries. Blacks make up more than a quarter of the state’s population, and the likelihood that Barack Obama will boost turnout in the state as he bids to become the first African-American president could cut into the GOP’s typical top-of-the-ticket margin.

Democrats are hoping that since almost a third of the population in the 2nd District is African American, there may be a pickup opportunity. Republican Terry Everett is stepping down after 16 years. Democratic strategists — who have succeeded nationally at expanding the field of competitive races since their 2006 uprising — moved nimbly to put the 2nd on their target list as soon as Everett announced his plans. While the GOP took until July to produce state Rep. Jay Love as their candidate, Democrats lined up right away behind relatively conservative Mayor Bobby Bright of Montgomery. Advocates say he’ll have appeal both in the region’s dominant city and in the small towns that dot the rural coastal plain — known as “the Wiregrass” for the perennial bunch grass that can grow as tall as three feet. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Republican. The 5th District has a conservative lean, and Republicans have viewed it as ripe for the taking since the popular Democratic Rep. Robert E. “Bud” Cramer made his surprise retirement announcement in March. But that move, less than a month before the candidate filing deadline, again sparked a Republican scramble. While Democrats rallied behind state Sen. Parker Griffith, whose center-right profile closely matches the outgoing incumbent’s, a somewhat fractious GOP primary and runoff took until last month to yield insurance executive Wayne Parker as the nominee. Still, Bush carried the district with 60 percent in 2004. CQ Politics rates this race No Clear Favorite, our most competitive category.