CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 8, 2008 – 12:09 a.m.
Bob Benenson’s Jigsaw Politics: Recalling the GOP Convention’s Festival of Falling Stars
By Bob Benenson, CQ Staff
There are plenty of numerical measures of the Republican Party’s declining fortunes since the 2004 national convention in New York City, which renominated President Bush and sent him to what turned into a troubled-plagued second term in the White House.
There is the steep decline in approval ratings for Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney . There are all those lost seats that in 2006 and since have cost the GOP its majorities in the Senate, the House, governors’ offices and several state legislative chambers. Most recently, there was the generic poll conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs for the Associated Press from July 31 to Aug. 4, which found 53 percent of respondents want the Democrats to control Congress, compared to only 35 percent who want the Republicans in charge.
But as we prepare to head out in a couple of weeks for the back-to-back Democratic convention in Denver and Republican convention in St. Paul, another way of illustrating the GOP’s hard and fast slide emerges. A look at the list of featured speakers at the 2004 Republican convention is itself a graphic illustration of why just four years ago seems like the good old days to so many Republican loyalists.
The roster is a virtual meteor shower of Republicans stars who have fallen within this one presidential election cycle.
Let’s start with the Monday opening day session, kicked off by House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert of Illinois in his role of permanent chairman of the convention. His re-election in November 2004 would extend his time as Speaker to eight years, the longest tenure for a Republican in the nation’s history. But the GOP’s loss of 30 seats and their majority in the 2006 elections relegated Hastert to the back benches and prompted him to resign his seat last November. Symbolically, a Democrat won the March special election to take over his Republican-leaning district.
Then there was a welcoming address by Michael Bloomberg — the moderate Republican mayor of heavily Democratic New York City who would soon quit the Republican Party over policy differences and become an independent.
Next up was his predecessor, Rudolph Giuliani. Still riding a wave of affection for the stalwart way in which he boosted public morale following the 9/11 terrorist attacks on his city in 2001, Giuliani would enter the contest for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination and had a lead in early polls... until the actual campaign got under way. His sometimes abrasive personality, stormy personal life and drumbeat reminders of 9/11 in virtually every public appearance quickly wore thin, and he was knocked out of the race by the end of January.
One of the image problems Giuliani had to deal with this year was his close relationship with Bernard Kerik, his former police commissioner and business partner who was tarnished by ethics and legal allegations after Bush, at Giuliani’s suggestion, nominated him in December 2004 to head the Homeland Security Department. And yes, Kerik was a 2004 convention speaker too, talking about 9/11, as the GOP made a hefty effort to hail Bush’s assertive military response to that calamity.
Others in the Monday program who have since hit hard times included Virginia Sen. George Allen, then touted as a possible darling of conservative Republicans for the 2008 White House race, until his own gaffes and an unexpected strong challenge from Democrat Jim Webb in his 2006 campaign sent him to the sidelines. There also was Ohio Republican Gov. Bob Taft, whose administration’s subsequent ethics scandals — including his own plea of no contest to charges of failing to report gifts — helped Democrats take over his office, a Senate seat and a House seat in Ohio in the 2006 elections.
One Monday night speaker who escape the furies of the Republican downfall, at least so far, was Arizona Sen. John McCain , who gave a glowing endorsement of ex-rival Bush. That speech helped McCain mend some fences with Republican regulars with whom he’d had a touchy relationship since he challenged Bush for the 2000 GOP nomination, and may have helped lay the groundwork for his successful bid for the 2008 top spot.
Whether that 2004 speech will help or hurt McCain in this year’s general election remains to be seen. Although he asserts that he was frequently critical of Bush’s handling of the Iraq War prior to the recent “surge” policy for which McCain takes some credit, many of those problems were developing or already evident when McCain, the former Vietnam War POW, took to the podium to lend his image of expertise on defense and foreign policy to Bush’s cause.
There is little doubt that the Democrats, at their convention later this month, will show selected clips from that speech in which McCain praised Bush’s decision to launch the war to oust the regime of dictator Saddam Hussein and his leadership in pursuing the already longer-than-predicted military intervention.
The remaining three days of the convention certainly featured a number of Republican figures whose careers have remained on the right track, including first lady Laura Bush (who is much more personally popular than her husband); California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ; Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle ; Ohio Rep. Rob Portman , who since has served as U.S. trade representative and White House budget director under Bush and has been prominently mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate for McCain; and Wisconsin Rep. Paul D. Ryan , who today is still just 38 years old and regarded as a rising star among a coalition of Republican fiscal conservatives.
Bob Benenson’s Jigsaw Politics: Recalling the GOP Convention’s Festival of Falling Stars
But the speakers’ list also is littered with names such as former Tennessee Sen. Bill Frist, whose position as majority leader, during a 2006 campaign that saw his party lose six seats and its Senate control, scuttled his hopes to run for president in 2008; Sen. Rick Santorum, then regarded as another 2008 prospect, who thought it was a good idea on the eve of his 2006 re-election campaign in Democratic-leaning Pennsylvania to publish a book touting his strong social conservative views — and ended up losing to Democrat Bob Casey by 17 points; and George E. Pataki, the three-term New York governor who upon his retirement in 2006 tested the waters in what turned out to be a dry pool and decided to forgo a bid for the 2008 presidential nomination.
Mitt Romney — then governor of Massachusetts, the home state of Sen. John Kerry , the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee — spent $45 million of his own money on a campaign for the 2008 presidential nomination that flamed out early, and his political future may hinge on whether McCain, with whom he had some bitter exchanges during the primary campaign, picks him to be his vice presidential nominee.
Also showcased were a pair of African-American Republicans whose attempts at breakthrough victories in 2006 were thwarted: Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, who lost a Senate race to Democrat Benjamin L. Cardin by 10 points, and former football star Lynn Swann, who lost to incumbent Pennsylvania Gov. Edward G. Rendell by 21 points.
Keynote speaker Zell Miller, who as a retiring conservative Democratic senator from Georgia made like a biblical prophet in delivering a jeremiad against the liberalism of his own party, has faded into political obscurity.
To be fair, not everyone on that year’s Democratic Convention speakers’ list has had a great four years. Kerry was diminished by his close loss to Bush as the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee. Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Joseph R. Biden Jr. , Ohio Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson all fell short in their bids for the party’s 2008 presidential nominations, as did former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, the 2004 vice presidential candidate. Yet all but Edwards, who did not seek Senate re-election in 2004, still hold the offices they held when they spoke in 2004.
Tom Daschle of South Dakota, then the Senate minority leader, was narrowly defeated for re-election that November by Republican John Thune , and Tennessee Rep. Harold E. Ford Jr. came close but lost his 2006 effort to become the first popularly elected black senator from the South, as Republican Bob Corker won the contest to succeed the retiring Frist. But Daschle of late has regained some prominence as a leading adviser and surrogate for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama in his campaign as the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, and Ford is now head of the Democratic Leadership Council, a prominent group of party centrists.
The 2004 Democratic speakers who have had the most difficulties since that year are Connecticut Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman , the 2000 vice presidential nominee, who had to win re-election in 2006 as an independent candidate after his outspoken support for the Iraq War made him a party pariah (and who this year is strongly supporting Republican McCain for president); and Kwame Kilpatrick, the scandal-prone mayor of Detroit who just Thursday was sent to jail for violating terms of his bond in a previous incident by leaving Detroit to visit the Canadian city of Windsor across the river.
But these setbacks are outshone by those 2004 Democratic convention speakers whose stars have risen — none more so than Obama, who burst onto the national stage with an electrifying keynote address that helped him win a record landslide in his Senate contest that year and put him on the path to becoming the nation’s first African-American major party presidential nominee.
Other Democrats who have advanced since their moments in the convention spotlight include former Vice President Al Gore, who shook off his close and controversial loss to Bush as the 2000 presidential nominee to win the Nobel Peace Prize for his crusade against global warming; California Rep. Nancy Pelosi , who with the 2006 Democratic House takeover became the first woman Speaker in history; then-Rep. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, who was appointed to the Senate in 2006 and won a full term later that year; former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, who rebounded after his 2004 Democratic nomination campaign cratered to become the current and influential chairman of the Democratic National Committee; Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano , whose easy 2006 re-election in her (and McCain’s) generally Republican-leaning home state burnished her reputation as one of the party’s leading women officials; and Mark Warner, then the popular governor of Virginia, who this year is strongly favored to win the Senate seat left open by retiring five-term Republican John W. Warner .
Perhaps all this explains why so many Republican lawmakers are resisting the urge to attend their party’s convention in St. Paul early next month. They might be asked to speak.




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