By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Democrat Favored

Electoral Votes: 11

The large number of affluent, technologically savvy young voters in the state of Washington translates into favorable territory for Barack Obama , who did well among that demographic during the Democratic nominating campaign both nationally and in Washington. He trounced Hillary Rodham Clinton with 67 percent support in the Feb. 9 party caucuses, though a non-binding “beauty contest” primary held in the state 10 days later produced a closer outcome in his favor, 51 percent to 46 percent .

Obama’s personal strength in Washington is complemented by the Democratic trend in what long had been a partisan swing state. Democratic presidential nominees have carried the state five times in a row — President Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide was the last Republican winner — and George W. Bush twice lost the state by sound if not overwhelming margins of 6 percentage points in 2000 and 7 points in 2004. Democrats today hold the governor’s office, both Senate seats, six of the nine House seats and sizable majorities in both state legislative chambers.

“It will be a little bit more difficult for McCain to consolidate the Republican base here in Washington state then it will be for Obama to consolidate those Clinton supporters,” said Matt A. Barreto, political scientist at the University of Washington and co-director of The Washington Poll.

McCain, who put most of his nominating campaign efforts into high-profile primary states, did manage to squeak out a first-place finish in Washington’s Feb. 9 caucuses, but with just 25 percent support, which served to underscore the hesitation many GOP conservative activists felt toward McCain and the “maverick Republican” image he has long sought to cultivate.

McCain did better among a broader Republican electorate in a Feb. 19 primary that determined the allocation of just more than half of the state’s GOP delegates, taking 49 percent of the vote. Still, according to Barreto, “McCain never had a strong footing here.”

Obama holds an early lead in the state’s general election polls, in part because of strong support from Washington’s many independents, Barreto said. Voters do not register by party in Washington, but self-identified independents make up the largest group of voters in the state’s electorate.

The same factors that give an edge to Obama might also help Gov. Christine Gregoire as she seeks to win a second term for governor and extend the Democrats’ success streak for that office to seven races dating to 1984. But given the fact that she won the seat in a historically close and controversial 2004 outcome — and faces a rematch this year with Republican Dino Rossi, a former state senator — Gregoire can hardly take her re-election for granted.

Gregoire’s winning margin in 2004 was one-hundredth of 1 point — just 129 votes out of more than 2.7 million cast — a result that came after a protracted series of recounts. Initially, Rossi had a tiny lead. Republicans unsuccessfully protested the results in court and continue to hold animosity toward Gregoire.

But Barreto said Gregoire has made few missteps in her first term that Republicans will be able to use to attack her, adding that “against the backdrop of Obama being incredibly popular,” Gregoire has an edge heading into November. CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.

As in 2006, suburban Seattle Republican Rep. Dave Reichert is embroiled in the most competitive House race in the state and one of the nation’s biggest partisan battles. The two-term incumbent again faces Democrat Darcy Burner, a former Microsoft manager who as a political newcomer held him to a 3-point margin last time out.

John Kerry carried the district for president by a similar margin in 2004, making Reichert one of just eight remaining House Republicans representing districts that went against Bush. He has maintained control of his seat by promoting an image as a Republican moderate and retaining a high profile that stemmed originally from his previous tenure as King County Sheriff. Under Reichert’s supervision in 2001, officers of his department caught Gary Ridgway, the “Green River” serial killer.