By Rachel Kapochunas, CQ Staff

CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored

Electoral Votes: 15

Georgia was once the Southern state most resistant to the region’s Republican trend — it was the only state, for example, that never elected a Republican governor in the 20th century. But when the shift came, it was dramatic. John McCain is favored to win the state in the wake of five Republican victories, most by wide margins, in the past six presidential elections, along with Republican takeover victories in recent elections by Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson for the Senate and Sonny Perdue for governor.

Georgia’s overall conservative lean is a clear asset for the Republican nominee. “McCain’s greatest strength is that this has become a fairly red state,” said University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III.

Yet there are some factors — including the likelihood of a strong turnout for Barack Obama among the state’s large black constituency, the hesitant embrace of Republican “maverick” McCain by the state’s large population of religious conservatives and the Libertarian candidacy of Georgia’s former Rep. Bob Barr — that have Republicans watching cautiously for signs that the contest in Georgia could become more competitive than expected.

Even as Obama easily bested Hillary Rodham Clinton in the Feb. 5th primary, on the Republican side, McCain finished second to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. Huckabee, an ordained Baptist minister with strongly conservative views on social issues, received 34 percent of the vote to 32 percent for McCain and 30 percent for Mitt Romney. Bullock said McCain “may have some selling to do with the conservatives in the state” before November, noting that religious conservatives make up a “large component” of the Republican Party in the state.

The McCain campaign, which lost a chunk of the primary vote to the libertarian-themed campaign of Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, also has to be on guard against a drift of some disaffected conservatives to Barr, who represented the exurbs of Atlanta as a Republican in the House from 1995 through 2002.

One area in which the Republicans’ advances in Georgia have been less encompassing is in the House delegation, which is currently made up of seven Republicans and six Democrats. Yet even as the Republican Party has been forced into a defensive posture in much of the nation’s congressional politics, it has remained on the offensive in Georgia.

Two Democratic incumbents, hindered in 2006 by a mid-decade, Republican-drawn redistricting map, survived very close races and each faces another tough race this time.

At this point, it appears Jim Marshall ranks a bit higher as a takeover target as he seeks a fourth term. His elongated central Georgia district, which includes his home city of Macon, has a strongly conservative flavor. Marshall, a decorated Vietnam War veteran, is a center-right Democrat who was one of his party’s stronger supporters of Bush’s decision to go to war in Iraq. But Republicans hope their nominee, former Air Force commander Rick Goddard, can take advantage of the district’s overall leanings. CQ Politics rates the race Leans Democratic.

To the east, in a district that includes most of Augusta and Savannah, the Democratic fundamentals more clearly favor John Barrow ’s bid for a third term against Republican John Stone, a former congressional aide. Barrow had a close race in 2006, but that was against Max Burns, the Republican he narrowly unseated two years earlier. The district, with its sizable black population, is more Democrat-friendly, going narrowly for Kerry in 2004. That makes Stone a clear underdog. CQ Politics rating: Leans Democratic.

Chambliss is the heavy favorite to keep his Senate seat for a second term. The Democratic challenger, former state Rep. Jim Martin, faces an uphill battle to make a serious run at Chambliss, who benefits from Georgia’s recently strong Republican voting trend and a daunting campaign finance advantage.