CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 13, 2008 – 9:05 p.m.
2008 Election Forecast: In Indiana, Republicans in Obama’s Backyard
By Greg Giroux, CQ Staff
CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Republican Favored
Electoral Votes: 11
Indiana is one of 11 states that have voted Republican in each of the past 10 presidential elections, with more electoral votes than any state in that group except Virginia (13) — and McCain appears highly likely to extend the GOP’s winning streak this November. Though its sits geographically alongside the mostly Democratic-leaning states of the industrial Midwest, heavily rural Indiana has been nearly as Republican in presidential contests as the Plains States of Kansas and Oklahoma.
Though Obama’s home state of Illinois, a Democratic lock in November, shares a long border with Indiana, it will be very difficult for the Democratic nominee to capture a state that four years ago backed Bush by a 21-percentage-point margin over John Kerry .
Bush won 92 of the state’s 96 counties, racking up especially large margins in centrally located Hamilton, Hendricks and Johnson counties — which include fast-growing suburbs of Indianapolis — and in two northern counties between South Bend and Fort Wayne.
Yet Obama aides said this summer that they have one of their better state political organizations in Indiana, where he narrowly lost the May 6 Democratic primary, a close call that undermined rival Hillary Rodham Clinton ’s claims of comeback momentum.
There are Democratic votes to be won in northwestern Indiana, where black-majority Gary and other blue-collar cities are in the orbit of Chicago, Obama’s hometown. Indianapolis, the capital city located in the center of the state, also leans Democratic. The hilly areas of southern Indiana are ancestrally Democratic but culturally conservative, and Republican presidential candidates usually far outrun their party’s candidates in down-ballot races.
Indiana is also one of 11 states holding an election for governor this year, and the only one in which a Democrat seriously challenges a Republican incumbent. Democrat Jill Long Thompson, a House member from 1989 through 1994 and then a top Agriculture Department official, is taking on Gov. Mitch Daniels in his bid for a second term.
The Democrats’ biggest recent leap, though, came with their gains of three House seats in 2006 that improbably turned a 7-2 Republican advantage in the state’s delegation to a 5-4 Democratic edge.
The Republicans’ best chance to reclaim a seat is the southeastern corner’s 9th District, where voters are intimately familiar with Democrat Baron P. Hill and Republican Mike Sodrel. It is a re-re-rematch, as the two are the district’s nominees for the fourth consecutive election. Hill is the incumbent at the moment and has the early edge, but the likelihood that McCain will significantly outpace Obama in the conservative-leaning territory has kept the GOP hopeful that Sodrel can benefit from presidential coattails — in much the same way that Sodrel’s winning campaign in 2004 was aided by Bush’s strong victory among district voters. Sodrel lost to Hill as his challenger in 2002, then lost to him again as the incumbent in 2006. CQ Politics rates this race Leans Democratic.
Democratic prospects appear somewhat more secure in the north-central and southwestern portions of the state, where freshmen Joe Donnelly (2nd District) and Brad Ellsworth (8th District) have displayed the sort of conservative leanings, particularly on social issues, that will help inoculate them from attacks by Republicans. Donnelly’s GOP opponent, businessman Luke Puckett, has had trouble raising money. Ellsworth is opposed by Greg Goode, a former public affairs official for Indiana State University in Terre Haute.
Comments
1. If Greater Indianapolis plus its portions of Greater Chicago and even Greater Cincinnati were thrown out, then and only then may the state be regarded as "heavily rural". 2. Even after the state ceased to be competitive between the (major) parties around 1919 at the presidential level, it has kept its hypercompetitive character at the gubernatorial, House, and other levels. In light of that fact, the partisan flip from a 7-2 R lead to a 5-4 D lead is anything but "improbable". 3. The familiarity of Obama and unpopularity of Governor Daniels (together) would seem to give a more credible case for a LEANS R forecast.
Obama's backyard? Please. He grew up in Kansas I'd call that his backyard - Why is he down 20 Plus Pts in Kansas. Because he hates small town American Values. He is pro-abortion, anti-gun, anti-death penalty and loves the liberal wing of the supreme court. He says he wants justices like Ginsburg and Stevens. And He voted against confirming Roberts and Alito - 2 of the best Jurists in the Nations history. Gimme a break - Obama is WRONG for America. Say no to this Obamination.
There are 92 counties in Indiana and Kerry won 4 (Lake, LaPorte, Marion, and Monroe.
Dean, With the exception of one statement -- your "he hates small town American Values" -- I'm so happy about everything you say about Obama. That's the kind of president we need, not a guy who's getting riskier and risker on the campaign trail.
First, I would like to address Dean. In the the two SUSA polls I saw on Kansas at different points, Obama was down with 44% of the vote, and with 42%. Both times McCain was barely over 50%, not twenty point margins. Kansas is solidly Republican territory, but Obama is still doing 6-8 points better than Kerry did in 2004, and will probably even do somewhat better than that before the race is over. I'd say that's a decent performance. Two, there is no polling justification for this Republican favored rating in Indiana. I have seen two polls, one showed Obama behind 49-44, and the 49-42. Then take into account Obama's ground game, the competitive gubernatorialship, and the fact that this state is on Obama's target list, it should be a Leans Republican rating, disregarding it's past history as the state has changed. If Evan Bayh is his veep, the state should be a toss up. I see little chance of the state remaining Republican in the future. The 18-37 category goes for Obama by 27 points, while the 55+ category goes for McCain by 29 points, (those numbers are paraphrased). As the older voters die off and the younger voters start turning out in greater numbers, the state should start to actually lean Democratic, possible within the next two decades.
The wirter has little understanding of partisan politics in Indiana...the state legislature is closely divided and Daniels followed almost 20 years of Democrats in the Statehouse....this is not the Republican "lock" that the national pundits predict and as another poster noted is not all that "rural" either....Indiana is home to large number of middle-size cities 10,000 to 30,000 which are difficult to categorize as either R od D....not a bastion of farms as its national reputatution would hold...rather Indiana is the #1 steel producing state and #2 in autos and has the highest percentage of manufacturing jobs in the US....to paraphrase a commercial....it is not your father's Indiana....
As someone from Indiana, I don't see the gubernatorial race as a toss up. Daniels is going to win by at least 10 points. McCain running will only help Daniels as they are very similar politicians. I was in Heavily democratic Bloomington about a week ago and saw only one bumper sticker for Long Thompson. which was in fact the first one i have seen. Daniels has done some things that don't sit well with Hoosiers, but overall people will either vote for him or against him and thats not something that will bring out voters, I could see many people that might actually vote for Obama also voting for Daniels. Both seem to be running on a change platform, although the changes they seek are vastly different.
Well, you likely didn't see one because Thompson is still completely unknown in South Indiana. She hasn't really kicked her campaign off yet either. I wish Democrats could get fully united there, in fundraising and support. Because Daniels could be beat, and it's the most important gubernatorial race in the country right now.
POST A COMMENT
Oops! The following errors must be addressed: