CQ TODAY ONLINE NEWS
Aug. 15, 2008 – 11:45 p.m.
2008 Election Forecast: Wyoming Still a Safe Haven for the GOP
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
CQ Politics Presidential Race Rating: Safe Republican
Electoral Votes: 3
If there does turn out to be a rising Democratic tide this year from the top of the ticket down, it will almost certainly dry up before it reaches the borders of Wyoming.
Wyoming has been a dependable part of the Republican base, having gone for Republican presidential candidates in the last 10 elections, and there is no sign this year will be any different. George Bush, with native-son running mate Dick Cheney , carried the state by 40 points in his two runs for the presidency and that was even topped by Ronald Reagan in 1984 by a 42 point victory. The last time the Democrats won here was in the Lyndon Johnson landslide over Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Barack Obama won the state’s Democratic caucuses on March 8 when Democrats turned out in droves to support him. But as far as any chance in this state, it is all downhill for Obama from there.
Republicans also have long held both of Wyoming’s Senate seats, its at-large House seat and majorities in both chambers of the state legislature. The success of conservative two-term Democratic Gov. Dave Freudenthal has been the only thing that stood between the Republicans and a clean sweep.
Both of Wyoming’s Senate seats are up for election in November and are considered safe bets for Republicans. John A. Barrasso, a former state senator, should cruise in the special election to fill the remaining four years of the term of the Republican he was appointed to succeed: Craig Thomas , who died of leukemia in June 2007, just eight months after winning a third term.
In the regularly scheduled election, GOP incumbent Michael B. Enzi is favored to win a third term, even though he flirted this spring with retiring over his displeasure at again being passed over for a seat on the Senate Finance Committee.
One ray of hope for Democrats is the state’s at-large House race. Republican Barbara Cubin , who has worn out her welcome with many Wyoming voters, is retiring after seven terms. That may actually bolster the chances for Republicans to hold the seat, but they drew a crowded field for the Aug. 19 primary. The top contenders are former state Treasurer Cynthia Lummis and Mark Gordon, a Buffalo rancher and businessman. While either would be a favorite, the winner will face a competitive race against Democrat Gary Trauner, an Internet entrepreneur who lost to Cubin by just 1,000 votes last time.




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